cc: "Evans Simon [FCO] - moscow, Russia" , "Monks Alan \(Mr AR\)" , "Holmes John \(Mr J\)" , "Clayton Jeremy \(Mr JP\)" , "Hodges Joanne \(Dr J\)" date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 10:23:24 +0100 from: "Grubb, Michael J" subject: RE: Science Article to: "Hernandez Tino \(Mr AF\)" , "King MPST" , "Sir John Houghton" , "Stott, Peter" , , "mike hulme" , "Jenkins, Geoff" , , , , , "Korobova Liya [FCO] - Moscow, Russia" Dear All, I realise I risk 'speaking out of place', but I do so on the back of several years' experience dealing with Russia on climate change. I think the objective must be to calm things down to improve prospects for better and lower-key discussions in the future. Every attempt I have seen to "play hardball" with Russia on Kyoto since December 1997 has backfired, and fighting in open media would do worse. I have impresion that Illarionov's main aim is to paint Kyoto as a European-led conspiracy (presumably claiming it would constrain Russia's re-emergence as a Superpower), a theme that has emotional resonance in Russia; every added bit of pressure from the west makes life harder for his internal opponents in Russia, who are then painted as western puppets. From that perspective, I can see no benefit at all to producing a 'response' to the Science article, and I can see big potential risks. That's my view anyway. Michael -----Original Message----- From: Hernandez Tino (Mr AF) [[1]mailto:Tino.Hernandez@dti.gsi.gov.uk] Sent: Wed 7/14/2004 11:48 AM To: King MPST; 'Sir John Houghton'; 'Stott, Peter'; 'N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk'; 'mike hulme'; 'Jenkins, Geoff'; 'john.ashton@co2.org'; Grubb, Michael J; 'chris.anastasi@british-energy.com'; 'Oleg.Eletskiy@britishcouncil.ru'; 'Steve.Hunt@fco.gsi.gov.uk'; Korobova Liya [FCO] - Moscow, Russia Cc: Evans Simon [FCO] - moscow, Russia; Monks Alan (Mr AR); Holmes John (Mr J); Clayton Jeremy (Mr JP); Hodges Joanne (Dr J) Subject: RE: Science Article Hot Controversy Over Climate Meeting <<...OLE_Obj...>> A political hurricane blew through an international scientific meeting on climate change held in Moscow last week, sparking a major row between top advisers to the British and Russian governments. U.K. scientists complained that the meeting had been "hijacked" by opponents of the Kyoto Protocol, while Russian officials accused the British delegation, led by Chief Scientific Adviser David King, of trying to suppress dissenting views. War cry. Russia's Andrey Illarionov says Kyoto would trigger "undeclared war." CREDIT: STR/AP PHOTO Russia holds the key to the Kyoto climate treaty, which enters into force only if adopted by countries that together are responsible for at least 55% of the world's carbon dioxide output. In May, President Vladimir Putin hinted that he might ratify the treaty in exchange for the European Union's support of Russian membership in the World Trade Organization. That came shortly after the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) produced a report criticizing the protocol, saying it lacks scientific validity and would not be effective. British climate experts expected the meeting, organized by RAS, to be a forum to discuss global warming and the Kyoto treaty with RAS members. On the eve of their departure for Moscow, however, the U.K. group learned about the addition of several well-known "skeptics" in the climate change debate. The list included Stockholm University's Nils-Axel Mörner, who has cast doubts on claims of rising sea levels, British climate maverick Piers Corbyn, and the Pasteur Institute's Paul Reiter, who disputes predictions that infectious diseases will explode as temperatures rise. The new program was "unacceptable" to King, says Peter Cox of the U.K.'s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter. "We knew that we would not get to the scientific issues if we went down every rabbit hole of skepticism." In fact, the opening session was delayed while King and RAS President Yuri Osipov attempted to negotiate an alternative agenda. King also asked British foreign secretary Jack Straw to intervene, several participants say. "It's very sad, but the Russian academy seems to have been take over" by Andrey Illarionov, a top adviser to President Putin and a vocal opponent of the Kyoto treaty, says John Houghton, another participant. At a press conference after the meeting, Illarionov called the treaty an "undeclared war against Russia," based on a "totalitarian ideology." But he denies having a hand in the agenda and says he was "shocked" by British attempts at "censorship." --MARTIN ENSERINK > -----Original Message----- > From: King MPST > Sent: 14 July 2004 11:11 > To: 'Sir John Houghton'; 'Stott, Peter'; 'N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk'; 'mike > hulme'; 'Jenkins, Geoff'; 'john.ashton@co2.org'; 'Grubb, Michael J'; > 'chris.anastasi@british-energy.com'; King MPST; > 'Oleg.Eletskiy@britishcouncil.ru'; 'Steve.Hunt@fco.gsi.gov.uk'; Korobova > Liya [FCO] - Moscow, Russia > Cc: Evans Simon [FCO] - moscow, Russia; Monks Alan (Mr AR); Hernandez > Tino (Mr AF); Holmes John (Mr J); Clayton Jeremy (Mr JP); Hodges Joanne > (Dr J) > Subject: Science Article > > > > Dear Colleague > > You may have seen the article which appeared in Science this morning > regarding our recent visit to Moscow (attached below). > > We are currently discussing the best way to deal with this here. If you > are contacted by the media about this article, I would be very grateful if > you would contact our press office here (details below). They are happy > to dispense advice on how best to answer any press enquiries. > > Tino Hernandez > Office: 0207 215 5965 > Mobile: 07715 177 502 > > Marion Heywood > Office: 0207 215 6140 > > Many thanks > > Dave King > > ________________________________________ > Sir David King > Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government > Office of Science and Technology > 1 Victoria Street > London > SW1H 0ET > > Tel +44 (0) 20 7215 3825 > Fax +44 (0) 20 7215 0314 > > > << File: 1.url >> > The original of this email was scanned for viruses by the Government Secure Intranet (GSi) virus scanning service supplied exclusively by Energis in partnership with MessageLabs. On leaving the GSi this email was certified virus-free