cc: Gavin Schmidt , Keith Briffa , mann@virginia.edu date: Fri, 19 Nov 2004 08:59:57 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: Vision Document Table of Contents to: Andrew Weaver , eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Dear Andrew and Eystein, Here are two paragraphs (for section 3) I was charged with drafting collaboratively w/ Keith and Gavin. Mike Workshop comparing current approaches We propose a workshop aimed at addressing the current issues and questions that exist with regard to the similarities, differences, strengths, and weaknesses among current alternative methods that have been employed for reconstruction past climates from paleoclimate proxy data. We advocate a paleoclimate reconstruction methodology and data intercomparison project ('PRMDIP') in which various paleoclimate reconstruction methods will be applied to common datasets to elucidate the differences between differing methods. These methods should include techniques for reconstructing both spatial patterns and hemispheric/global means of key climate variables (e.g. surface temperatures). Target data sets should include actual proxy data sets that have been used in previous large-scale climate reconstructions (e.g. tree-ring records reflective primarily of summer temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, and 'multiproxy' datasets consisting of tree-rings, corals, ice cores, and other natural archives reflective of a broader range of regions, seasons, and climate variables). Target data sets should also include model simulation results, from which synthetic proxy ('pseudoproxy') records can be constructed from the model simulation, and used to test the skill of alternative reconstruction methodologies in reconstructing the actual model climate history. Participation among attendees in the "PRMDIP" project experiments would be expected beforehand, so that the workshop can focus on comparing the results of different approaches. It is likely that the results of this intercomparison would be published in one or more articles following the meeting. We propose to hold this workshop during spring/summer of 2006. Workshop about possible future approaches We propose a workshop aimed at discussing and proposing possible approaches for extending high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions further back in time through the merging of lower resolution natural proxy archives of climate. The focus would be both on the development of methodologies for combining annual and well dated, lower resolution (decadal to multidecadal) proxy information, and the possible testing of these methodologies using synthetic model-derived proxy data networks. The workshop would bring together individuals with expertise in the various specific proxy types, individuals with expertise in statistical climate reconstruction methods, and individuals from the climate modeling community. We propose to hold this workshop during Fall of 2006 or Spring 2007. At 06:37 PM 11/10/2004, you wrote: Dear CLIVAR/PAGES Intersection Panelists, It was thoroughly enjoyable meeting you all at our recent workshop in Victoria. We have now put together a draft table of contents with writing assignments (in bold). Section 2 requires individual paragraphs outlining the key scientific issues/questions discussed at the meeting. Section 3 requires a paragraphs discussing the rational for the item as well as some details as to what will be done with it. If you wish a copy of the strawperson.ppt file we were working on, please email Zhongwei as he has a copy. As discussed at the meeting, we would like to get pieces back by the end of next week. Once again, many thanks for your thoughtful contributions at the workshop. Best wishes, Eystein and Andrew ============================================================================ Mailing Address: | Courier Address: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Weaver | Andrew Weaver School of Earth and Ocean Sciences | School of Earth and Ocean Sciences University of Victoria | at Gordon Head Complex, Room 296a PO Box 3055 | University of Victoria Victoria, BC, V8W 3P6 | 3964 Gordon Head Road Canada | Victoria, BC, V8N 3X3, Canada ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- email: weaver@uvic.ca | Tel: (250) 472-4001 [1]http://climate.uvic.ca | Fax: (250) 472-4004 ============================================================================ ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml