date: Tue, 13 May 2003 14:18:51 -0600 from: Tom Wigley subject: paleo & extremes to: Tim Osborn Tim, I thought you might be able to tell me how the Hadley paleo runs are going. We (Caspar Ammann et al.) have completed a run from 1000AD to the present using the paleo version of CSM (slightly poorer resolution that the standard CSM). The results are quite interesting. I believe we are using a better volcano record (Caspar's) than anyone else. Solar is tricky -- the astronomical basis for Judith Lean's low frequency irradiance reconstruction has been shot down as you probably know. One of the nice results is that we can use MAGICC to back out the signal from the noise. Sarah has some material that I sent her showing that MAGICC can simulate both volcanic responses (on a monthly to century time scale) and solar responses (annual to century) with extremely high fidelity. Ask her to show you. On another matter, you showed me a paper some time back on extreme value distributions, which I think you were refereeing. There was an earlier paper on the same subject by the same author. Can you give me the references -- and any other relevant items dealing with the modeling of changes in the frequency of extremes? Best wishes, Tom.