cc: "'Jenkins, Geoff'" , "'Murphy, James'" , Ag Stephens , "Humphrey, Kathryn (GA)" date: Mon Jun 15 12:47:16 2009 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: WG log file outputs to: David Sexton , Chris Kilsby , "Humphrey, Kathryn (GA)" Dave, Chris, We were never going to provide the raw data - neither the station data nor the gridded 5km station data. Met Office Commercial should say NO to both of these. Providing 61-90 averages is not a breech, as you can effectively get these from the observed data provided with UKCIP02 and also the fields that John Prior is setting up for Roger Street. Table 2 of the WG Report is what the Change Factors look like. We all agree that we shouldn't be supplying these. This Table was just an example. In reality, this set will change for each of the 100 runs that the user will be supplied with for the future. Users will be confused by the multiple sets of change factors. So, I think we can't supply either the driving stats for the future or for the present. We might have to revisit this for Launch 2, but from what Ag said earlier, we can't change anything anyway. Cheers Phil At 10:31 15/06/2009, David Sexton wrote: Hi, Kathryn will have the definitive answer to this. Met Office Commercial Division own the precipitation data produced by NCIC. Although we can use this data inside the UI and WG in UKCP09 we cannot distribute it. And I wonder if providing 1961-90 means from WG might effectively be in breach of this. Cheers, David On Mon, 2009-06-15 at 10:09 +0100, C G Kilsby wrote: > OK - slight problem: if we provide the actual driving stats for future runs, and also for 6190..., then you can easily get the CFs and obs stats. > > Will look pretty odd if we don't provide driving stats for 6190 as well as future. > > Chris > > > >-----Original Message----- > >From: David Sexton [[1]mailto:david.sexton@metoffice.gov.uk] > >Sent: 15 June 2009 08:48 > >To: Jenkins, Geoff > >Cc: C G Kilsby; Phil Jones; Murphy, James; Ag Stephens; > >Humphrey, Kathryn (GA) > >Subject: RE: WG log file outputs > > > >Hi, > > > >yes, I agree with this. I seem to remember talking about > >providing the actual WG driving statistics but nothing more > >i.e. observed baseline or change factors. > > > >Cheers, David > > > >On Tue, 2009-06-09 at 12:44 +0100, Jenkins, Geoff wrote: > >> Chris > >> I agree completely. David is away this week, but I impage he > >would to > >> - I am copying this to James in case he wants to comment. > >> Cheers > >> Geoff > >> > >> > >> -----Original Message----- > >> From: C G Kilsby [[2]mailto:c.g.kilsby@newcastle.ac.uk] > >> Sent: 09 June 2009 12:22 > >> To: 'Phil Jones'; Sexton, David > >> Cc: 'vassilis glenis'; 'Stephens, A (Ag)'; Jenkins, Geoff; > >'Humphrey, > >> Kathryn (ACC)' > >> Subject: WG log file outputs > >> Importance: High > >> > >> All: on Ag's request, Vas is preparing a version of WG which > >generates > >> a log file for output by the WG which (might) include various > >> statistics/metadata related to the WG run/fitting. > >> > >> Can we just check please what is needed, and sensible to include in > >> this > >> file: > >> > >> 1. I can't remember exactly what was agreed previously (but in any > >> case we need to review this now). My recollection is that we had > >> agreed to not give out this type of inforrmation on the > >internal workings/data! > >> > >> 2. It may be sensible to provide some stats/info on the WG > >run to give > >> the user some idea of what has been done, to identify the > >variant/run > >> later, or even to give some more confidence in the product; > >> > >> 3. It is not sensible to provide detailed info on the actual change > >> factors for each variant (David - I think this has been the > >MOHC line > >> throughout? These can't be obtained elsewhere, so we shouldn't give > >> them out through the WG as a backdoor?!) (If we did this, > >they would > >> actually get the "untransformed" CFs); > >> > >> 4. So, some middle way may be best, but it is difficult to > >see what is > >> the best option to provide some useful info (case 1 above) without > >> giving out all the CFs, (case 2 above) and observed > >statistics (which > >> are also not generally to be dished out!) which would be > >given out if > >> we gave info for the control case. > >> > >> In any case, for the temperature and other wx variables, not all of > >> these are directly available for us to print out straightforwardly > >> (they are estimated/offset within the CRU WG by regression etc.) > >> > >> My inclination is to give out very little of these observed and > >> perturbed stats, as in addition to the points above, they will only > >> cause/allow users to dig around and misinterpret how the WG > >is working. > >> Case 1 is probably already satisfied by knowing a unique variant id > >> number given by the existing output through the UI? > >> > >> The most useful data for the user are the actual WG outputs > >(for 6190 > >> and future cases)- they should analyse these to calculate the stats, > >> rather than any "target" statistics which may or may not be > >accurately > >> matched by the WG, and are in any case only single values, without > >> natural variability attached. > >> > >> In summary, we don't want users getting hold of and obsessed by the > >> WG/climate model output Change Factors etc: we want them to > >> analyse/use the WG time series outputs ! > >> > >> Comments please, > >> > >> > >-- > >David Sexton PhD Climate Research Scientist > >Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB UK > >Tel: +44 (0)1392 886524 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 > >E-mail: david.sexton@metoffice.gov.uk [3]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > > -- David Sexton PhD Climate Research Scientist Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB UK Tel: +44 (0)1392 886524 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 E-mail: david.sexton@metoffice.gov.uk [4]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------