date: Wed Mar 10 08:56:51 2004
from: Phil Jones
subject: Re: Update on post 1980 proxy temps
to: "Michael E. Mann" , Chick Keller
Chick,
Here's the RoG paper. A reminder NOT to send this to anyone else and also NOT to
use the figures - so just background for your debate, for which I wish you all the best.
I agree with the comments made by Ben and Richard on this sort of thing, but am glad
you're giving it a go. I don't expect you to change their opinions, but I do expect you to
win !
There seems to be a problem with the figures. The disk they are on on the mainframe
seems offline at the moment. Hopefully that will be rectified soon and I'll send them
later.
I won't send these to Mike. Fig 8 may get changed - Mike is hopeful of replacing the
Bauer et al series with a more up-to-date version.
Cheers
Phil
At 12:48 09/03/2004 -0500, Michael E. Mann wrote:
HI Chick,
I don't have the final version of the ROG paper, but Phil does. I've cc'd this to him so
he can provide you the most up-to-date version if he has it. In any case, this should
NOT be sent along to anywhen else until further notice. There is some discussion of the
spurious nature of the McIntyre and McKitrick result in the ROG paper, and there are
other papers in review or in press that establish the flaws in greater detail.
Will keep you posted on that.
Best regards,
mike
p.s. I'll be travelling now for the next week. Best to contact me after the 18th if you
have further questions. Thanks...
At 11:03 AM 3/9/2004 -0700, Chick Keller wrote:
MIKE,
THANKS SO MUCH FOR THE HAWAII LECTURE. I'LL NEED SOME WORDS TO GO WITH THE STUFF I
DECIDE TO SHOW, AND SO MAY GET BACK TO YOU WHEN I'VE HAD A CHANCE TO STUDY THESE MORE
CAREFULLY. PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE MC AND MC PAPER RESULTS AND YOUR
INTERPRETATION OF THEM, BUT THERE'S MUCH ELSE HERE THAT I NEED TO UNDERSTAND BETTER.
IS THERE A PREPRINT OF THE REVIEW PAPER IN PRESS BY YOU AND JONES?
THANKS AGAIN,
CHICK
Hi Chick,
Good to hear from you. Glad you're still at it, taking on these folks. I've attached a
figure from a review paper in press in "Reviews of Geophysics" by Phil Jones and myself.
This shows the Mann and Jones NH proxy composites, extended through 1995 based on the
available proxies, compared with the instrumental record. You should only plan to show
the NH estimates (the SH and global means are far more uncertain).
Singer may question what smoothing technique was used in showing the 40 year smoothed
series. If so, you can mention that its the technique of Park et al (1992, book
chapter) and Ghil et al ('Reviews of Geophysics, 2003), described in more detail
recently in Mann (GRL, in press, 2004), which minimizes misfit of the smooth with
respect to various possible boundary constraints...
You may be interested in downloading a lecture I gave recently at the NASA/CLIVAR
decadal variability workshop, where I discussed some recent developments in this area.
You can download that here:
[1]ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/mann/Hawaii04.ppt
please let me know if I can be of further help,
best regards,
mike
At 09:37 AM 3/9/2004 -0700, Chick Keller wrote:
Hi Michael,
I'm looking for an update. Awhile back you sent me a graph of proxy data on
temperature thru the last half of the 20th century. You will recall that Fred Singer has
been saying that proxy data used to determine temps over the past 1,000 yrs shows no
warming since 1980 or so (thus seeming to substantiate Christy and Spencer's reduction
of satellite data). Yet your graph showed warming. I mentioned this in a posting to
the critics group (without attribution)--just said that I was aware that some such
records do indeed show warming. Fred is anxious to see this work, but you asked me to
hold off till it cleared the referees and was in press. That was a few months ago. Is
there a preprint now available or are you still awaiting final form?
This is a little more pressing since IEEE here at the Lab has asked me to reprise my
debate with Fred (back in 1998) and I have agreed. It's to be April 19th and I'm sure
Fred will bring up his "proxies show no warming after 1980" point which your work would
help counter. But I can't in a debate bring up something that Fred isn't able to look
at. Sooooo, I was hoping that the article had gone to press or at least was in
distributable preprint form.
Finally, since I'll be debating Fred, I'm asking people like yourself to assist me with
the latest work (since being retired, I'm not fully up to date on all of the newest
stuff). So if there's anything I could use in the paleo area, it would be greatly
appreciated--especially electronic visuals that I can make into viewgraphs (still not up
on powerpoint).
I hope all is going well with you and your research.
Cheers,
Chick
--
Charles. "Chick" F. Keller,
Visiting Scientist at
IGPP, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics
MS-C305
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Los Alamos, NM 87544
(505) 667-0803 or 667-0920
FAX (505) 665-3107
Home phone 505-662-7915
______________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137
[2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:figure5-final.pdf (PDF /CARO) (000326EE)
--
Charles. "Chick" F. Keller,
Visiting Scientist at
IGPP, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics
MS-C305
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Los Alamos, NM 87544
(505) 667-0803 or 667-0920
FAX (505) 665-3107
Home phone 505-662-7915
______________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137
[3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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