date: Wed Mar 10 08:56:51 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Update on post 1980 proxy temps to: "Michael E. Mann" , Chick Keller Chick, Here's the RoG paper. A reminder NOT to send this to anyone else and also NOT to use the figures - so just background for your debate, for which I wish you all the best. I agree with the comments made by Ben and Richard on this sort of thing, but am glad you're giving it a go. I don't expect you to change their opinions, but I do expect you to win ! There seems to be a problem with the figures. The disk they are on on the mainframe seems offline at the moment. Hopefully that will be rectified soon and I'll send them later. I won't send these to Mike. Fig 8 may get changed - Mike is hopeful of replacing the Bauer et al series with a more up-to-date version. Cheers Phil At 12:48 09/03/2004 -0500, Michael E. Mann wrote: HI Chick, I don't have the final version of the ROG paper, but Phil does. I've cc'd this to him so he can provide you the most up-to-date version if he has it. In any case, this should NOT be sent along to anywhen else until further notice. There is some discussion of the spurious nature of the McIntyre and McKitrick result in the ROG paper, and there are other papers in review or in press that establish the flaws in greater detail. Will keep you posted on that. Best regards, mike p.s. I'll be travelling now for the next week. Best to contact me after the 18th if you have further questions. Thanks... At 11:03 AM 3/9/2004 -0700, Chick Keller wrote: MIKE, THANKS SO MUCH FOR THE HAWAII LECTURE. I'LL NEED SOME WORDS TO GO WITH THE STUFF I DECIDE TO SHOW, AND SO MAY GET BACK TO YOU WHEN I'VE HAD A CHANCE TO STUDY THESE MORE CAREFULLY. PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE MC AND MC PAPER RESULTS AND YOUR INTERPRETATION OF THEM, BUT THERE'S MUCH ELSE HERE THAT I NEED TO UNDERSTAND BETTER. IS THERE A PREPRINT OF THE REVIEW PAPER IN PRESS BY YOU AND JONES? THANKS AGAIN, CHICK Hi Chick, Good to hear from you. Glad you're still at it, taking on these folks. I've attached a figure from a review paper in press in "Reviews of Geophysics" by Phil Jones and myself. This shows the Mann and Jones NH proxy composites, extended through 1995 based on the available proxies, compared with the instrumental record. You should only plan to show the NH estimates (the SH and global means are far more uncertain). Singer may question what smoothing technique was used in showing the 40 year smoothed series. If so, you can mention that its the technique of Park et al (1992, book chapter) and Ghil et al ('Reviews of Geophysics, 2003), described in more detail recently in Mann (GRL, in press, 2004), which minimizes misfit of the smooth with respect to various possible boundary constraints... You may be interested in downloading a lecture I gave recently at the NASA/CLIVAR decadal variability workshop, where I discussed some recent developments in this area. You can download that here: [1]ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/mann/Hawaii04.ppt please let me know if I can be of further help, best regards, mike At 09:37 AM 3/9/2004 -0700, Chick Keller wrote: Hi Michael, I'm looking for an update. Awhile back you sent me a graph of proxy data on temperature thru the last half of the 20th century. You will recall that Fred Singer has been saying that proxy data used to determine temps over the past 1,000 yrs shows no warming since 1980 or so (thus seeming to substantiate Christy and Spencer's reduction of satellite data). Yet your graph showed warming. I mentioned this in a posting to the critics group (without attribution)--just said that I was aware that some such records do indeed show warming. Fred is anxious to see this work, but you asked me to hold off till it cleared the referees and was in press. That was a few months ago. Is there a preprint now available or are you still awaiting final form? This is a little more pressing since IEEE here at the Lab has asked me to reprise my debate with Fred (back in 1998) and I have agreed. It's to be April 19th and I'm sure Fred will bring up his "proxies show no warming after 1980" point which your work would help counter. But I can't in a debate bring up something that Fred isn't able to look at. Sooooo, I was hoping that the article had gone to press or at least was in distributable preprint form. Finally, since I'll be debating Fred, I'm asking people like yourself to assist me with the latest work (since being retired, I'm not fully up to date on all of the newest stuff). So if there's anything I could use in the paleo area, it would be greatly appreciated--especially electronic visuals that I can make into viewgraphs (still not up on powerpoint). I hope all is going well with you and your research. Cheers, Chick -- Charles. "Chick" F. Keller, Visiting Scientist at IGPP, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics MS-C305 Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87544 (505) 667-0803 or 667-0920 FAX (505) 665-3107 Home phone 505-662-7915 ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:figure5-final.pdf (PDF /CARO) (000326EE) -- Charles. "Chick" F. Keller, Visiting Scientist at IGPP, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics MS-C305 Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87544 (505) 667-0803 or 667-0920 FAX (505) 665-3107 Home phone 505-662-7915 ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------