date: Mon, 14 May 2007 10:55:24 +0100 from: "R Selley" subject: Re: Query re. UK isotherms to: "Phil Jones" Phil, Thank you so much for your detailed response to my query and for the attached paper which is invaluable. My interest in viticulture was primarily to see if there were any geological controls (there are, but they are indirect). To begin with climate change was not at the front of my mind. After putting together a database of British vineyards I noted that they were either Roman, Medieval, Little Ice Age or Modern, with gaps. It was irresistible to draw their northern limits on a map of the UK. This revealed the ebb and flow correlative with the 'Received wisdom' proxy temperature. Re. Isotherm maps. Yes, I have the IPCC reports, and Houghton's 'Global Warming - the complete briefing' and have surfed the Met Office, Hadley Centre and other web sites to try to find annual isotherms. Why I am so obsessed with annual rather than seasonal isotherms is that globally the world's main wine-growing regions occur between the 10 & 20 degree C annual average isotherms Re. your comments that the rises and falls of British viticulture may be cultural rather than correlative with climate change. The Celts were into wine drinking in a big way, and imported it in considerable quantities from Euroland. Likewise the Saxons imported wine for communion and conviviality, and had planted vineyards before 1066. Once again thank you for your detailed response and the 2004 paper. I would be most grateful for later publications on this topic. Best regards Dick Professor R C Selley Department of Earth Science & Engineering, Royal School of Mines, Imperial College, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2BP Phone: : +44 (0)1306 882026 email: [1]r.selley@btinternet.com Website: [2]www.ese.imperial.ac.uk/homepage.php?StaffID=108 Also: [3]www.encyclopediaofgeology.com & [4]www.winelandsofbritain.co.uk ----- Original Message ----- From: [5]Phil Jones To: [6]r.selley@btinternet.com Cc: [7]Sheppard Sylv Miss (SCI) Sent: Monday, May 14, 2007 8:59 AM Subject: FW: Query re. UK isotherms Dear Dick, Getting isotherm maps is quite difficult, especially for recent times. There are probably maps for 1961-90 or 1971-2000 developed by the Met Office for the UK. There are anomaly maps for recent months and years on their website, so the 'normals' for the base periods (61-90 or 71-00) must be available, but we don't have them. It would be best if you had one single measure that grapes respond to - such as May-Sept temperature average or some degree-day threshold. The latter may be more what the viticulturalists use, but it is far easier getting monthly means. For the future, you need to look at one of the UKCIP reports (their UKCIP02). UKCIP is the UK Climate Impacts Programme at Oxford. By the way I'm somewhat skeptical about whether climate (or temperature) is the single factor affecting the spread and shrinkage over time of vineyards. The Romans and the Normans came with a grape growing culture, but in between the Celts, Saxons and Vikings were not that much into grapes - preferring other forms of alcohol. The recent upsurge now is also more cultural than climatic. Grape growing is always put forward as one of the main pieces of evidence to warmer times in the Medieval period, but it isn't that convincing, bearing in mind other more direct evidence. I have discussed this in a paper, which I'm attaching for your interest. See pages 6-8 in particular. Cheers Phil -----Original Message----- From: R Selley [[8] mailto:r.selley@btinternet.com] Sent: Friday, May 11, 2007 12:08 AM To: cru@uea.ac.uk Subject: Query re. UK isotherms Dear Reader, Please can you help me and forward the following query to a climate guru in your group who can assist with the following query: I am a geologist interested in geo-viticulture who has strayed into climate change, having discovered that I can map the ebb and flow of British vineyards across the countryside correlative with temperature over the last 2K (see [9]www.winelandsofbritain.co.uk). Naturally it would be fun to map the future advance of vineyards, and indeed the optimum zones for different grape varieties, correlative with global warming. As I am only a geologist I am unfamiliar with the literature and web resources on climate data. I have a map of UK isotherms for 1900. Where can I find one for 2000, or thereabouts? Thank you. Regards Dick Selley Professor R C Selley Department of Earth Science & Engineering, Royal School of Mines, Imperial College, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2BP Phone: : +44 (0)1306 882026 email: [10]r.selley@btinternet.com Website: [11]www.ese.imperial.ac.uk/homepage.php?StaffID=108 Also: [12]www.encyclopediaofgeology.com & [13]www.winelandsofbritain.co.uk Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------