date: Fri Jul 10 11:30:05 2009 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Past temperatures to: "Ken Mourin" Ken, You've obviously been to the site, but the page is [1]http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html The most relevant chapter to proving the warming is down to us is Ch 9. The current warming cannot be explained unless climate models are told about increases in greenhouse gases. Without this, with 3 large volcanic eruptions and a slight decline in solar output, we should be cooling. Only back for today. Away all next week. Here again from July 20. Best Regards Phil At 20:34 08/07/2009, you wrote: Dear Professor Jones Many thanks for your prompt reply - I'd be delighted to have references to past global temperatures and CO2 levels, for my sources are I suspect secondary, and I haven't been able to track down the originals. They suggests that only on one occasion, about 125,000 years ago, has the sea level risen above present levels - and that sea levels are now steady. Your last para says that CO2 levels are rising faster than ever before. This may be totally irrelevant IF CO2 does not cause a rise in temperature. The graphs I have available show that temperature rose 4-1200 years BEFORE the CO2, and the CO2 remained high for up to 20,000 years after the temperature returned to normal. This would suggest that temperature rises caused the increased CO2 release, probably from the sea and the wetlands. One factor I have yet to see mentioned is that the greatly increased energy usage of the last hundred years has resulted in higher heat output from simple thermodynamics - energy expended tends to end up as heat. So far I remain unconvinced by the IPCC reports - I have downloaded and partly read the one you kindly drew my attention to. I also have previously read most of the Idso and Singer report of the NIPCC at www heartlands.org. and the earlier NIPCC counterblast which exposed some of the gross errors ( the J-shaped curve, the fiddling of the figures, the political manipulation of the final report , the false attribution to many scientists who were not really involved, etc.) Sorry if I sound an unregenerate "denier", but I am genuinely perplexed, and also fearful of the enormous economic costs of political actions based on what seems to be unscientific and frankly bandwagoning politicians. I also believe that the earth has much more comprehensive corrective capabilities than we currently give it credit for. Furthermore, as a few East Coast denizens have shown recently, it only requires a few men and a bucket and spade or two (loosely speaking!) to build up coastal defences to stop maritime flooding. More attention to drainage ditches and the slowing of water drainage could help a lot of inland damage too. Rant over! I look forward to hearing from you further. Kindest regards Ken Mourin 13 Quebec Road - PLEASE NOTE THE CORRECT NUMBER - an draft template crept into use. Dereham NR19 2DR e-mail: ken.mourin@virgin.net (though I will be changing this in a couple of weeks - I'll send an update). tel: 01362-692989 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------