date: Mon Jun 19 13:24:47 2000 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Fwd: from Julie Cole to: "Raymond S. Bradley" Ray and Julie I know it has taken a while to get to the sort of scheme involved in the draft Ray has done , but I do feel this is the right one with which to proceed. As I see it the large emphasis must still be on the last 1000 years and must involve description and discussion of the last 100 observed and take the question of human-induced change by the horns , and this means little more as regards longer timescale than is already begun. I think the Figures are paramount and should be agreed on now and contain the element of Synthesis implied by the project . Hence, as I think we agreed , we could stick to the climate concepts (temp,wetness,ENSO,NAO) and have selected Figures on the 2 timescales (last 7000 and last 1000 years) , but not necessarily all on both timescales. The temperature stuff is well underway for the longer stuff within the current discussion but it needs building around a Figure as Northern high/tropics,southern high latitudes -from the ice core ,tree line. Ray I know you have or have started this. The crucial thing to point out here is the contrast / similarity in the inference re. trends :major periods (optimum) ; and the evidence that major and abrupt events have punctuated the trends. We then need to do similar as regards the other concepts -Ray do wetness (including the Magny Holocene stuff for the Alps and Europe and Digerfield's Boreas stuff for Sweden , plus the Scot Stein U.S. evidence - see my Figure in the CRU book article) and the obvious African stuff you quote. We could think about similar attempt for NAO and ENSO but perhaps we don't need to because it is only infered from tree line and ice core evidence on this longer timescale . Then if Julie does ENSO and I do NAO for last 1000 years (same problem) or the best we can say about it , we can do similar synthesis plots of evidence that are superimposed on real data - Here we come to a problem . I think much of our chapter should contain the IPCC -like plots and chat about the instrumental evidence for the phenomena/concepts. I now think we should revisit the LIA and MWP concepts again. We need to clarify a summary of were the scince is with these ideas - see Grove's latest paper on start of LIA (about 1100). I have now redone the synthesis Figure of the various temp reconstructions for the last 1000 years, includingthe Crowley and Lowery stuff (Ambio) and I have read their latest (just about to be published) Science paper trying to reproduce the curve with a simple EB model and various forcings. This Figure and discussion must go in and I can describe and develop a few points relating to it. Then we need to answer the questions you pose re variability and this is where the modelling discussion comes in - so we then need to discuss recent papers like The Crowley simple, and Tett GCM-based work and discuss future /predicted trends in all our 4 concepts. I will 'phone you Ray as requested. I will FAX minor annotations on manuscript. Keith At 11:03 PM 6/18/00 -0400, Raymond S. Bradley wrote: Keith: PLEASE CALL ME AT 413-253-7058 (home number) on MONDAY 1-2PM YOUR TIME...MUST GET THE LATEST DRAFT FROM YOU. I'M NOW BACK FROM THE ARCTIC AND CAN WORK ON THIS< BUT NEED TO KNOW IMMEDIATELY WHERE WE STAND> THANKS RAY From: "Inula Cat Diving" To: Cc: Subject: from Julie Cole Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2000 19:23:19 -0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.2106.4 Hello Ray, Greetings from the Indian Ocean! I'm emailing you from a small dive boat off the island of Pemba - offshore Tanzania, where even electricilty and local phone are a daily challenge. Amazing.... we are using a cell phone, which any Tanzanian who really needs a phone is using by now. We're here for more corals (of course). But I'm not just sending you mail "because I can". I have a favor to ask related to our chapter for the PAGES synthesis. It turns out I won't be home before the Switzerland meeting - after we're done here, Peck and I are taking a safari/Kili climb vacation and returning directly to Switzerland. But I have not yet seen any version of our chapter... so, I was wondering if you could send the latest (may be from Keith B, but I don't have his email out here - could you forward this to him if so?) Key is to send it to Peck before 6/17, so that he can print it and bring it along (I can't really get anything off the computer I'm using here for mail). He and I can then spend a bit of time on it before arriving, perhaps get a sense of what it might need from us. Especially as we are arriving a day late (due to flight schedules from Africa), it would help to get a head start on this. Hope this isn't too much of an imposition, but I think it would help us to make better progress once we're in Switzerland! Thanks a million (asante sana, as they say here). Hope you're having a great summer so far, cheers, Julie Raymond S. Bradley Professor and Head of Department Department of Geosciences University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA 01003-5820 Tel: 413-545-2120 Fax: 413-545-1200 Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659 Climate System Research Center Web Site: <<[1]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/climate.html>[2]http://www.geo.umass.edu/cli mate/climate.html Paleoclimatology Book Web Site (1999): <[3]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html>[4]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climat e/paleo/html