date: Wed, 15 Jul 2009 15:15:24 +0100 from: "Sheppard Sylv Miss \(SCI\)" subject: FW: Australia's Skeptic Problem to: "Jones Philip Prof \(ENV\)" ___________________________________________________________________________________________ From: david macilwain [mailto:jadamacilwain@harboursat.com.au] Sent: 15 July 2009 14:38 To: Sheppard Sylv Miss (SCI) Cc: enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk Subject: Australia's Skeptic Problem Dear Hadley Centre --or whoever can advise on our problem. We have a serious problem in Australia at the moment, in the shape of an independent senator who holds the balance of power over the government in its efforts to pass legislation on Emissions Control. I'll leave aside the fact that the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme as it is known is actually a Reallocation scheme, which is not designed to reduce emissions in Australia but merely offset them in such dubious enterprises as "stopping deforestation" in Indonesia, and also plans to give away permits to all the biggest polluters. All of us who are seriously concerned about climate change ( you might think that would be most Australians) would like to see this minimalist scheme scrapped and replaced with a serious commitment, but there is a small group of "Climate Skeptics" who want neither and are having a disproportionate effect on the public view. The main drive behind this skeptic movement appears to be the Heartland Institute, and its local front group "the Australian Climate Science Coalition" ( in whose title the only significant word is COAL ) This group is strongly supported by the Murdoch owned "Australian" newspaper, which prints frequent articles by skeptic "scientists", and opinion pieces by its own resident "deniers", and has considerable punch with public opinion. Consequently there is here still "a Debate" on whether CO2 is causing Global Warming, and for that matter whether there is global warming "any longer". The ACSC has, in my opinion, identified Senator Steve Fielding as someone who can push their agenda along for them; in effect to be a sort of Trojan Horse to spread their misinformation virus through the community and government. An example of the insidious effectiveness of this Campaign is that right now we have Al Gore here, firing up his initiates, and talking to Kevin Rudd ( in such a way as to make him say things that go way beyond anything he planned to do, but he's like Tony Blair I'm afraid), but given EQUAL time in the news is Steve Fielding, who also wanted to talk to Gore to see if he could "answer his question". (Gore didn't meet him). This is where you come in, and I apologise for the rambling intro. Fielding's "question", which he says our scientists can't answer, is "why have temperatures for the last 15 years stayed the same or fallen when CO2 levels have risen?" (you don't need to answer this!) But as evidence of this he has "a graph(attached)", which according to his website is YOURS! You can find this same graph in many skeptic publications, sometimes only 2002-2009. I'm quite familiar with the Hadley Temp graph for the last 150 years and this section only has a slight resemblance to it. It does however have more resemblance if you tilt the axis ---but why would you do that? If you'll bear with me, my other attachment is some analysis I did on a curious graph published by the ACSC, and attributed to a presenter at the Heartland Institute conference on Climate Change in New York in March '09. It tries to show that the current variation in temperature is cyclical - and therefore natural, but to make the Hadley Data fit the requirements some changes had to be made. First the section pre 1880 was removed, and then the graph was apparently distorted into this wavy shape, which I have repeated in "fig 3". As a matter of interest I have given my suggested trend line in "fig 4". It is evident that one would not have much chance of persuading anyone of the lack of a warming trend by presenting the data in this fashion. What I would really like from you is a statement that the graph attributed to you seriously misrepresents the data and has evidently been re-packaged with the intention to mislead. The change is NOT a matter of "scientific interpretation". I would then forward your reply to Senator Fielding, along with your simple and adequate notes on "climate facts" -which are all the facts currently being peddled as myths around Australia. While we may only be a small country, we unfortunately punch well above our weight, both in being a CoalMine, and in sabotaging Kyoto for so many years - and now arguably trying to sabotage Copenhagen. with regards, David Macilwain. Sandy Creek, Victoria, 3695 Australia Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Distorting Data.jpg" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\The Graph.jpg"