cc: jto@u.arizona.edu, Eystein Jansen , Pascale Braconnot , francis , Keith Briffa date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 09:49:07 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: [Fwd: [Wg1-ar4-ch09] section 9.3] to: Gabi Hegerl Hi Keith, Gabi and gang - thanks for the cross-chapter dialog/effort so far. What worries me a lot, is that we're basically out of time for any substantial changes. I suggest Gabi and Keith work overtime to 1) make sure the two chapters are consistent and do not contradict each other (this is the most important thing), and 2) that redundancy is reduced and replaced w/ cross-referencing to the extent possible (with chap 6 ceding to 9 on the detection/attribution issues to the extent possible). I fear time might be too short to do a good job w/ this former task, so Keith, put all you've got into it, and whatever is left over will have to get dealt with after SOD. The main thing is that the two chapters do not contradict one another. This is up to Gabi and Keith to ensure. Thanks, peck >Hi Keith et al., > >I was trying to give you a call on this, but can't reach you - let >me know if and when is a >good time, teaching later this morning. > >The LGM and early holocene is meant from our side that we refer to >you for all the details, and summarize >the findings and why they are encouraging. The one aspect of the LGM >we have in more detail is the >two pdf estimates (annan and schneider von deimling), which I think is ok. >And that mainstream sensitivity OAGCMs seem to do ok. > >Similar for the mid Holocene. > >For the last 1000 yrs, >it was my understanding that you guys talk about the >reconstructions, the forcings, and individual periods >in the last 1000 yrs, and about the runs done with the forcings. >In that, we definitely need to go with your terminology, sorry about >the medieval warm >period, that just didn't percolate down to us yet! >As to response to forcing and detection and attribution, as well as >what forcings explains what, >what caused the early 20th century warming, and climate sensitivity, >what forcing do we detect where etc, role of solar, >volcanic and greenhouse gases relative to each other, I thought this >was for chapter 9 to talk about. I am happy to cross reference you >more on other stuff, and delete >where you think we should for example not reference references, but >chapter 6, unless its in these >attribution questions. > >Is that still ok? So please let me know where you are concerned in >detail, and then lets see what to do >about the overlap > >Gabi > > >Keith Briffa wrote: > >>Gabi >>it is difficult to be precise as regards comments , mainly because >>there do seem, as it turns out, to be large areas of overlap >>between our discussion of the simulations, forcings, and >>consistency with the CO2 record in what you sent. In some places >>you cite selected references and occasional cross references to >>Chapter 6 , but this could probably be much more frequent and >>perhaps specific with regard to particular sections and Figures >>(and you could as a consequence remove text if you wished - but I >>see no problem if not, other than repetition , as there are no >>contradictory statements to ours as far as I can see) . I make >>these remarks mostly with regard to out last 2000 year section. >>The only only one gripe with the text that I have is your reference >>to the medieval period being a 500-year warm period . In fact we go >>to some trouble to discuss the ambiguity of the concept in our Box >>6.4 and describe the timing of the warm periods .I think you should >>not perpetuate the term in the vague context that you do. At >>present , I am not certain of our final Figure order as I hope to >>rearrange the later ones yet again. Anyway , you have pretty much >>the final draft I believe of Chapter 6 and can , as no doubt you >>would anyway, take or leave my opinions. Best wishes >>Keith >> >> >>At 18:10 27/02/2006, you wrote: >> >>>p.s. since I am going to a meeting on thursday (hockeystick revisited) >>>we are trying to be down to bookkeeping and really minor stuff by thursday, >>>so if you have suggestions, but wednesday would be best - SORRY! >>> >>>Gabi >>> >>>Gabi Hegerl wrote: >>> >>>>Hi Keith, Peck and Bette, >>>> >>>>Here is our preindustrial section. I think our chapters merge >>>>fine here, I don't >>>>see too much overlap, but it wouldn't hurt if you check either. >>>>I will also send the sensitivity section to Bette in a few hours. >>>>If you have changes, please use track changes. Francis, I have accepted all >>>>changes in this and removed comments no longer relevant >>>> >>>>Gabi >>>> >>>>-------- Original Message -------- >>>>Subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch09] section 9.3 >>>>Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 10:22:32 -0500 >>>>From: Crowley_Hegerl >>>>To: >>>> >>>> >>>>Hi chapter 9 authors, >>>> >>>>This is the preindustrial section 9.3 for final crosschecking. >>>>Please get back to us (using my work email or this list) by >>>>Wednesday at the latest. >>>>It has some questions and things to check for Pascale (thanks for >>>>all the help with this >>>>Already, did you see Bette's latest LGM numbers and the updated >>>>terminology? - I'll >>>>Also send ch6 draft which I got this morning). >>>> >>>>And one for Nathan on circulation stuff, there was a comment we >>>>were not sure about. >>>>Would be great of course if others have a chance to check, too. >>>> >>>>ALL: PLEASE ACCEPT ALL CHANGES before you make more changes. Otherwise >>>>It will be close to impossible to trace! >>>> >>>>Good morning everybody >>>> >>>>Gabi and Francis >>>> >>>> >>>>-- >>>>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>>>Gabriele Hegerl >>>>Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, >>>>Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, >>>>Box 90227 >>>>Duke University, Durham NC 27708 >>>>Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 >>>>email: hegerl@duke.edu, >>>>http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html >>>> >>> >>> >>>-- >>>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>>Gabriele Hegerl >>>Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, >>>Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, >>>Box 90227 >>>Duke University, Durham NC 27708 >>>Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 >>>email: hegerl@duke.edu, >>>http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html >> >> >>-- >>Professor Keith Briffa, >>Climatic Research Unit >>University of East Anglia >>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >> >>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >> > >-- >~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas >School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, >Box 90227 >Duke University, Durham NC 27708 >Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, >http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/