cc: "Briffa Keith Prof \(ENV\)" , "Mcgarvie Michael Mr \(ACAD\)" date: Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:03:10 +0000 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: FW: Freedom of Information request - Impact of adjustments to: Tim Osborn , "Palmer Dave Mr \(LIB\)" Dave, Michael, I think there is no need to meet to respond to this one. The only information I can provide is in the most recent scientific paper on HadCRUT3. The paper is Brohan, P., Kennedy, J., Harris, I., Tett, S.F.B. and Jones, P.D., 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548. We can't put this paper up on the website as this breaks AGU regulations. You also can't email it as it is too large. There is a link to the final version before it went to AGU on this CRU web page. [1] http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/ There are two links in fact - one back to AGU and one to a pdf of the paper. See if you can locate it Dave. It is the first of the references listed. What the requester needs to look at is Figure 4 and the accompanying text. They probably will not realise the significance of the Figure. What it shows is a histogram of all the station homogeneity adjustments. The distribution is Gaussian with a near zero mean, so global temperature series with and without these adjustments would be indistinguishable. The effects of other uncertainties are discussed in the paper. Rayner, N.A., P. Brohan, D.E. Parker, C.K. Folland, J.J. Kennedy, M. Vanicek, T. Ansell and S.F.B. Tett, 2006: Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in marine temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 dataset. J. Climate, 19, 446-469. Bias adjustments to the SST component in HadCRUT3 are shown in Figure 8. Bottom line is that they should read the scientific literature we give details of on the web page! This has been the simplest request to deal with. It has still taken 10 minutes to write this email. The issue might be that they will make further requests as they may not understand what is said in the papers! Happy to go through a draft response. Cheers Phil At 16:46 05/01/2009, Tim Osborn wrote: Dave, this one is just for Phil, I think. I have little to do with HadCRUT3 data and certainly have no information concerning the adjustment of raw weather station data. By the way, the request appears to originate from a "Bishop Hill" email address, which is also a blog (not so well read as Climate Audit) that spreads misinformation about climate science (e.g. that Phil has been accused by Doug Keenan of fabricating claims made in one of Phil's papers!): <[2] http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/this-should-be-fun.html> Tim At 16:32 05/01/2009, Palmer Dave Mr \(LIB\) wrote: Gents, An EIR request from Mr. Montford that I'm forwarding to you at the suggestion of Michael McGarvie. Deadline for response is 30 January. If you think it useful, we can meet to discuss the approach to this request - Michael can ask his PA to set up the meeting. Please note that all correspondence from us on this request will be immediately posted on the web at the 'whatdotheyknow' website/service. Please note that EIR has many of the same exemptions as FOIA but does differ in some significant aspects (e.g. there is no 'appropriate limit' within the EIR). Should you have any concerns regarding the release of this information (assuming we have it), I will then address them in light of the provisions of the EIR.... Cheers, Dave -----Original Message----- From: Bishop Hill [[3] mailto:request-5369-1dae80e3@whatdotheyknow.com] Sent: Saturday, January 03, 2009 8:33 AM To: David Keith Palmer Subject: Freedom of Information request - Impact of adjustments Dear Sir or Madam, I am interested in the HADCRUT3 global temperature index. Specifically, I would like to know the impact of adjustments to the data over time as these affect the global mean surface temperature. I imagine that such an assessment must be done as a part of the regular preparation of the index and presumably would take the form of a chart of the index calculated with and without the adjustments, although anything along these lines would meet my needs. For the avoidance of doubt, I'm trying to compare the two extremes - raw data from the weather stations at one end, and the final HADCRUT3 GMST at the other. Yours faithfully, Andrew Montford ------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: This message and any reply that you make will be published on the internet. Our privacy and copyright policies: [4]http://www.whatdotheyknow.com/help/about#officers Is foi@uea.ac.uk the wrong address for Freedom of Information requests to University of East Anglia? If so please contact us using this form: [5]http://www.whatdotheyknow.com/help/contact ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Timothy J Osborn, Academic Fellow Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------