date: Wed, 12 Nov 2003 08:21:45 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: FW: Invite to Roundtable "IPCC, 'Hockey Stick' Curve, & Illusion to: Michael Oppenheimer , "Michael E. Mann" , Tim Osborn , Phil Jones , Keith Briffa , , , Tom Wigley , tom crowley , Gabi Hegerl , Jonathan Overpeck FYI, For those who haven't seen this. This is the kind of thing these folks are up to... mike Delivered-To: mem6u@virginia.edu Subject: FW: Invite to Roundtable "IPCC, 'Hockey Stick' Curve, & Illusion of Experience" Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2003 11:33:57 -0500 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Invite to Roundtable "IPCC, 'Hockey Stick' Curve, & Illusion of Experience" Thread-Index: AcOnmUvtd9mn3CPDRq+3z16kZPYw4QAAJ+kwAANnV6A= From: "Loschnigg, Johannes (Govt Affairs)" To: "Michael E. Mann" X-OriginalArrivalTime: 10 Nov 2003 16:34:09.0178 (UTC) FILETIME=[77253FA0:01C3A7A8] "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"> Mike - Looks like I'll have the chance to grill these guys on the hill (see below). I was going to use your 3-page overview (03nov03.pdf) as ammunition. Anything else I should be armed with? Johannes -----Original Message----- From: George C. Marshall Institute [[1]mailto:info@marshall.org] Sent: Monday, November 10, 2003 9:45 AM To: George C. Marshall Institute Subject: Invite to Roundtable "IPCC, 'Hockey Stick' Curve, & Illusion of Experience" George C. Marshall Institute Join us for a discussion The IPCC, the Hockey StickCurve, and the Illusion of Experience: Reevaluation of Data Raises Significant Questions With Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick Tuesday, November 18, 2003 12:00 Noon Longworth House Office Building - Room 1324 Independence Avenue and South Capitol Street, SE Lunch provided. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) Third Assessment Report concluded that it is likely that the rate and duration of the warming of the 20^th century is larger than any other time during the last 1,000 years. The 1990s are likely to have been the warmest decade of the millennium in the Northern Hemisphere, and 1998 is likely to have been the warmest year. The primary basis for this assertion was a climate reconstruction that produced the so-called hockey stickshaped graph, which shows that the 20^th century was unusually warm compared to preceding centuries. A new evaluation of the underlying data used to create that graph by Canadian businessman Stephen McIntyre and economist Ross McKitrick raises serious questions as to its validity. McIntyre and McKitrick examined the construction and use of the data set of proxies for past climate, which were used to estimate the temperature record from 1400 to 1980. Their review found four categories of error: collation errors, unjustified truncation and extrapolation, use of obsolete data, and calculation mistakes. Correcting for these errors, they found that temperature for the early 15^th century was actually higher than the 20^th century. The McIntyre-McKitrick findings challenge one of the most influential aspects of the climate change debate. The hockey stickgraph has been accepted as fact by the international community and many domestic interests pushing the Kyoto Protocol and McCain-Lieberman. Reservations Required Please RSVP to [2]info@marshall.org George C. Marshall Institute 1625 K Street, NW, Suite 1050 Washington, DC 20006 ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml