date: Tue Feb 1 08:46:30 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: DEGREES OF FREEDOM to: "Folland, Chris" Chris, Thanks for this ! Not sure why exactly, but thanks. Printed it off and had a quick look. Odd ideas all round. You will obviously point out the omission of all the SST (or NMAT) data !!! The TC ideas seem most odd. Also the time series of TCs doesn't look right either. I will read the paper at some stage. TCs affecting radiative forcing is novel - unbelievable ! Let me know how the meeting goes. I've heard it is difficult to get a word in edgeways with Illarinov. None of the usual Russians on the author list, nor any of their references. Not seen the presumably WMO book from 1964. If the paper does come out will need to send on to a few people if we are to address in Ch 3. So try and find out if they propose submitting it somewhere. No rush though as nothing will happen now till late April on the chapter. Have fun at the meeting - fun isn't the right word, but can't think of better one ! Cheers Phil At 17:25 31/01/2005, you wrote: Phil Thanks. We are doing some back of the envelope calculations to convince Illarionov et al (chief economics adviser to Putin and very anti Kyoto) that their very odd paper submitted to the Dangerous Anthropogenic Change Conference but not accepted - only because its not a topic for discussion - is out by an order of magnitude. He claims we do not know global temp even in 2004 to better than +-0.7C so we don't know the trend. David Warrilow is setting up a meeting it seems with several of us. Has some even stranger ideas later in the paper. Attached. Please DO NOT PASS ON TO ANYONE AT THIS STAGE. Chris Professor Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Global climate data sets are available from [1]http://www.hadobs.org Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072)<[2]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Also: Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[3]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 31 January 2005 16:47 To: Folland, Chris Subject: Re: DEGREES OF FREEDOM Chris, It depends on the timescale - although there isn't too much difference between the interannual and the decadal. The number is nearer 20 than 60. 60 was nearer the mark for seasonal and over a 100 for monthly. I've not looked at that paper for ages. Cheers Phil At 16:13 31/01/2005, you wrote: Phil Can you clarify the number of spatial degrees of freedom annually in global. A quick look at your paper in 1997 suggests 20 not 60. Chris Professor Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Global climate data sets are available from [4]http://www.hadobs.org Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) [5]http://www.metoffice.[6]gov.uk Also: Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------