date: Wed Oct 28 15:44:39 2009 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: additional outliers to: "Don McNeil" Don, The patterns of the earlier warming and the current are different. Been known for years. Maps are in this paper Jones, P.D., New, M., Parker, D.E., Martin, S. and Rigor, I.G., 1999: Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics 37, 173-199. Pdf too large to email. Maps are there for 1925-44 and 1978-97. I wouldn't expect patterns to be similar. Also different areas will be locally significant for the two periods. Cheers Phil At 19:03 27/10/2009, you wrote: Dear Phil: Following your suggestion, we've found about 20 more unusually high SST values between 1909 and 1923 in our region 78 (between latitudes 45 and 65 south and longitudes 20 degrees west and 20 degrees east) and when these are omitted the graph is much clearer. We're now finding that the global temperature increase from 1909 to 1944 almost exactly matches the increase from 1977 to 2008 in terms of its overall gradient (0.167 degrees per decade) but the individual regions have different patterns in the two periods, and the correlation between them is not high. We're still working on this and will send you a copy of the statistical analysis in due course. Cheers...Don >>> Phil Jones 10/27/09 7:35 PM >>> Don, There are good physical arguments for omitting SST values near to or taken under sea ice. Determining SST normals (for 1961-90) anywhere near sea ice is a problem, as there are few measurements and they are more likely to be from warmer years/seasons. You could flag outliers in terms of standard deviation units (all based on the common period of 1961-90) and remove them in this way. Over land we've been through many of those that exceed absolute values of 4 sigma. Many are correct as they are confirmed by neighbours. Many occur near sea-ice boundaries. Stations on the north coast of Iceland have some very large sigma departures when very occasionally sea ice reached the north coast in the past. Also the more continental the land temperatures the more likely it is in higher latitudes for the distribution to be slightly negatively skewed especially in winter months. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------