date: Thu, 25 May 2006 12:43:13 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: expert review comments on AR4 to: Keith Briffa thanks a bunch Keith, yes, lets definitely discuss in Switzerland. Perhaps you, Tim, Phil, and I (maybe more, but I think this would be just right) could get together over a few beers and really have an honest open discussion of where we can sort out the real issues (of which there are many) from the specious ones (of which there are also many!). Especially, see the latest RealClimate article by David Ritson, its also relevant to the discussion even though it is of course not true peer-reviewed literature: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/how-red-are-my-proxies/ My guess is that anything that the 4 of us all can find consensus on, is probably a good reflection of what the consensus is within the leaders in this field, and you could certaintly use that as ammunition in your deliberations with Peck and Susan... see you soon, mike Keith Briffa wrote: > Hi Mike > thanks for these comments and especially thanks for your remarks on > the effort of trying to produce a balanced picture of the current > state of things in the IPCC Chapter 6. In fact , I know that it is > already out of date and I am going to get particularly lambasted for > not discussing problems with recent tree responses to warming and > potential problems wit CO2 fertilization - I may have to add even more > text yet .You are absolutely correct that we had unreasonable trouble > from Susan , who was not as "hands off" as she might have been. I will > certainly study your comments carefully - as I always do . I would > rather reserve comment on the Crowley reconstruction til I speak > personally to you. I really hope that we can get an atmosphere of > constructive discussion that , I believe, must include some discussion > of the sceptics . Look forward to those drinks and some time away from > the mad house of teaching/exam marking etc. See you soon > > best wishes > Keith > > At 18:08 24/05/2006, you wrote: > >> Hi Keith, >> >> I wanted you to have an advance copy of the comments I'll be >> submitting on the final draft of the AR4. I commend you for the >> excellent work you've done and the tough battle I know you have had >> to fight. I don't envy it, and you know the tough battles I've been >> through. >> >> Confidentially, I do have a number of specific concerns mostly in >> the area of discussions of where things actually now stand in terms >> of some of the earlier criticisms. I believe that the discussion is >> still out of date, given what has been shown in recent publications, >> including Wahl and Ammann (Science). Also, and I don't think this is >> the only place you're going to hear this from, there are deep >> problems w/ Hegerl et al '06, particularly the claims of what TLS can >> do, which are egregiously incorrect. There is a comment in review in >> Nature (not me, but I can promise you, by someone who understands the >> statistical issues involved better than anyone else in our community) >> that is very critical. I think its unwise for the TAR to >> uncritically accept the claims made, particularly given that the >> actual J. Climate paper was in limbo at least at the time the most >> recent draft was finalized. I believe that disqualifies it for >> consideration for AR4, no? >> >> Also, I think it is an absolute travesty that figure 6.10 isn't being >> shown in the SPM. I think that is unforgiveable, and there should be >> an effort to over-ride that decision (I would suspect that is Susan >> Solomon's doing?), >> >> I hope we can discuss these things (and much else) over a few beers >> in Switzerland. Looking forward to seeing you soon, >> >> mike >> >> -- >> Michael E. Mann >> Associate Professor >> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) >> >> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 >> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 >> The Pennsylvania State University email: >> mann@psu.edu >> University Park, PA 16802-5013 >> >> http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm >> >> > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm