date: Mon, 22 Jul 2002 14:12:55 +0100 from: "Langenberg, Heike" subject: RE: Nature: quick request for advice (S07368) to: "'Tim Osborn'" Thanks, Tim, that's very helpful. I'll reject the manuscript, based on your comments and my own doubts, then. Cheers, Heike -----Original Message----- From: Tim Osborn [mailto:t.osborn@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 22 July 2002 13:57 To: Langenberg, Heike Subject: Re: Nature: quick request for advice (S07368) Dear Heike, a quick perusal and a consultation with my colleague (Prof. Keith Briffa) leads me to the firm conclusion that, while the paper has some new and publishable results, they have over-interpreted them along the lines that you suggested - probably to give them the feel of a wider and more significant appeal than they deserve. Certainly the suggestion of a 1000-yr oscillation on the basis of a 400-yr record is tenuous. The timing of the beginning of the warming is of interest and the results have some novelty because there are not many equivalent ocean records, but with no assessment of the reconstruction error it is again difficult to accept the interpretation that the authors have given. Best regards Tim At 12:12 22/07/02, you wrote: >Dear Dr Osborn, > > <<07368_ms.pdf>> >I am writing to you in the hope that you may provide some informal advice on >a paper which has been recently submitted to Nature. This is just an initial >enquiry, so that we may try to assess the wider appeal of the paper, before >me make a decision whether to send the paper out for a full review - please >do not provide a full report at the present stage. The paper's title is > >" A Dansgaard/Oeschger climate cycle in the North Pacific during the > past millennium", by Lowell Stott and Donn Gorsline. > >Basically the authors present a record of oxygen and carbon isotopic >compositions of a benthic foraminifer from the Santa Barbara and Santa >Monica basins off California, covering the past 400 years. They find a trend >in delta 13 C, interpreted as a parallel to D/O events in the earlier >record, and warming trend (from delta 18 O) over ~ the last 300 years, with >some acceleration at about 1900. They conclude that the 20th century warming >trend is (at least to some extent) part of much longer-term trend, within a >millenial scale oscillation. My concerns regarding the paper lie with the >question of novelty, given that it seems that tree-ring records and borehole >data already seem to have come to the conclusions that the recent warming >started before anthropogenic greenhouse gases accumulated in the atmosphere >(e.g. Esper et al. in Science, and the work by Pollack). However, previous >records seem to be mostly land-based and I am not sure how much we know >about oceanic settings at this stage. > >Therefore, I was wondering if you could comment on the current state of >affairs with respect to our understanding of climate evolution over the past >400 years, on land and in the ocean. Would this paper cause us to change our >view of oceanic climate change? The authors also claim to have evidence for >a D/O event and millenial scale variability in their record, but I must say >that I am rather skeptical about these inferences, given that the D/O event >does not seem to be complete, and that a 400-year record would seem rather >too short to infer millenial scale variability. I would, however, >appreciate it if you could briefly comment on these aspects as well (if you >feel that this also lies within your expertise). > >I have included a .pdf version of the manuscript with this email (readable >with Adobe Acrobat Reader, available free via the Internet at >http://www.adobe.com/prodindex/acrobat/readstep.html. ), to let you glance >at the paper in more detail if you wish - often a general impression can be >gained from the first papragraph - and I'd be grateful for any comment, >short or long, you may be able give on this topic. Or if you are not able to >comment at this time, please could you give suggestions of other possible >experts in the field. > >Thank you, and we appreciate any help you may be able to give. > >Yours sincerely, > >Heike Langenberg > >______________________________________________________ >Dr Heike Langenberg >Senior Editor, Nature > >http://www.nature.com/nature >The Nature Publishing Group > >The Macmillan Building, 4 Crinan Street, London N1 9XW, UK >Tel +44 20 7833 4000; Fax +44 20 7843 4596; nature@nature.com > >968 National Press Building, Washington DC 20045-1938, USA >Tel +1 202 737 2355; Fax +1 202 628 1609; nature@naturedc.com > >225 Bush Street, Suite 1453, San Francisco CA 94104-4216, USA >Tel +1 415 403 9027; Fax +1 415 781 3805; nature@naturesf.com > > > > > > > > DISCLAIMER: This e-mail is confidential and should not be used by anyone >who is not the original intended recipient. If you have received this >e-mail in error please inform the sender and delete it from your mailbox or >any other storage mechanism. Neither Macmillan Publishers Limited nor any of >its agents accept liability for any statements made which are clearly the >sender's own and not expressly made on behalf of Macmillan Publishers >Limited or one of its agents. Please note that neither Macmillan Publishers >Limited nor any of its agents accept any responsibility for viruses that may >be contained in this e-mail or its attachments and it is your responsibility >to scan the email and attachments (if any). No contracts may be concluded >on behalf of Macmillan Publishers Limited or its agents by means of e-mail >communication. Macmillan Publishers Limited Registered in England and Wales >with registered number 785998 Registered Office Brunel Road, Houndmills, >Basingstoke RG21 6XS > > Dr Timothy J Osborn | phone: +44 1603 592089 Senior Research Associate | fax: +44 1603 507784 Climatic Research Unit | e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk School of Environmental Sciences | web-site: University of East Anglia __________| http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ Norwich NR4 7TJ | sunclock: UK | http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm DISCLAIMER: This e-mail is confidential and should not be used by anyone who is not the original intended recipient. If you have received this e-mail in error please inform the sender and delete it from your mailbox or any other storage mechanism. Neither Macmillan Publishers Limited nor any of its agents accept liability for any statements made which are clearly the sender's own and not expressly made on behalf of Macmillan Publishers Limited or one of its agents. Please note that neither Macmillan Publishers Limited nor any of its agents accept any responsibility for viruses that may be contained in this e-mail or its attachments and it is your responsibility to scan the email and attachments (if any). No contracts may be concluded on behalf of Macmillan Publishers Limited or its agents by means of e-mail communication. Macmillan Publishers Limited Registered in England and Wales with registered number 785998 Registered Office Brunel Road, Houndmills, Basingstoke RG21 6XS