date: Thu, 25 Feb 1999 10:33:40 -0000 from: Merylyn McKenzie Hedger subject: Wales workshop report to: "'david@globatmo.demon.co.uk'" , "'m.hulme@uea.ac.uk'" Dear David and Mike, Havard Prosser has sent this draft of the Wales workshop. He is happy for us to add some additional detail so I would be glad if you could peruse the report on your contribution and add additional points if you see fit. Please let me know if you don't intend to amend this copy. I am putting the copy in the body of the message in view of DETR's state of the art computing network. (But you do pay for us to have them- thank you!) The report will be translated and "published" as a Joint UKCIP / Weslh Office report. Thank you, Merylyn ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------ Setting the Context for Climate Change Research - David Warrilow, DETR Mr Warrilow reviewed the evidence that carbon dioxide levels in the world were increasing with associated changes in global surface temperatures. Historical records of carbon dioxide levels comes from ice cores in the Antarctic. Concentrations are predicted to rise from 350 to 750 ppb by 2090 as a result of annual world emissions rising from 6-7 gigatonnes to 20 gigtonnes. Much of the increase will come from developing countries. The reductions agreed at Kyoto are a necessary first step, but are insufficient to prevent an increase in carbon dioxide levels - in fact, a 60-70% reduction in emissions would be required to stabilise levels. The EU had proposed a limit of 550 ppb. Global temperatures are predicted to rise by 1 to 50C, with a sea-level rise of 1 metre or more as a result of the melting ice-caps and expanding water volumes in the oceans. This is likely to lead to dislocation of populations and habitats, and threats to food supplies, water resources and coastal zones. Climate change is considered to be an unacceptable risk, because the impacts are not understood. Wales in likely to be at the interface between a cold Atlantic Ocean and the hot European continent, leading to greater extremes of weather. There could be a loss of rare habitats and greater flooding, but also greater productivity for crops and forests, and greater potential for tourism. Vulnerability to climate change would vary across sectors because of the varying capacity to adapt. The programme of integrated assessment in the UK was necessary to plan for adaptation and mitigation. Climate Change Scenarios for the UK - Mike Hulme, University of East Anglia. Dr Hulme described the background and main features of the report "Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom" published in October 1998. Historical climate statistics helped in defining the risks and identifying activities that were climate sensitive. The Central England records provided a good representation of the historic climate changes in Wales. New climate scenarios were necessary to refine the risks. The scenarios had been constructed on the best predictions of greenhouse gas emissions, climate sensitivity, and selecting the most appropriate climate models. There were considerable uncertainties because of * the predicted range of emissions, * the range of climate response (1.5-4.50C for doubling of CO2 levels) * the range of models. Part of the focus of the work was to define these uncertainties and develop ways to reduce them. Of the 4 scenarios that have been predicted, the low scenario is expected to occur as a minimum. The predicted increase in winter precipitation is robust. There is less certainty in the predictions of variability of summer and winter temperatures. The Hadley Centre was developing higher resolution data on a 50Km grid, and UEA was using a 10Km grid of observed climate data. These could be helpful in a regional assessment. It was important to assess impacts on the basis of the full range of scenarios. UK Climate Change Impacts Programme and Projects - Merylyn McKenzie Hedger, UKCIP Dr McKenzie Hedger summarised the key characteristics of the Impacts Programme which comprised a set of modular studies based on particular regions or sectors. The Programme has a Users Forum to ensure the outputs meet their needs. UKCIP acted as a facilitator by providing advice on setting up projects and common data sets to aid assessment. Co-ordination of studies was essential, and one of the key tasks was to integrate assessments. UKCIP did not have funds available to carry out the regional and sectoral assessments. North West England had set a good example of the organisation of a regional impact assessment. It had set up a steering group involving local authorities, Environment Agency, the water industry and conservation interests. A scoping study had been completed and planning was taking place for a more in-depth study. In Scotland, a workshop had been held and this had led to a small steering committee which was starting a scoping study. Sectoral studies included a MAFF-DETR-Water UK study of agriculture, water resources, flood/coastal defence and biodiversity in East Anglia and North West England. Department of Health was considering a health impacts study. Based on the experience of these studies, UKCIP was building up its expertise on the way to organise and motivate regional and sectoral studies. Leadership from a key regional organisation was important. This had been a handicap in setting up studies in some parts of England.