cc: Tim Osborn , mann@virginia.edu date: Wed, 24 Jan 2001 17:55:53 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: verification results to: Scott Rutherford Hi Scott, Tapio is technically right, but on most proxy data a true estimate of "observational error" will never be possible. Certain components of that error (e.g., sample size in dendro estimates) are available, but this will be very limited in general. I'm sure Tim can provide something along the lines of the latter... mike At 05:27 PM 1/24/01 +0800, Scott Rutherford wrote: >Dear Tim, > >After some reworking of the algorithm to better handle very sparse >data we finally have some results using your mxd data. > >You can see the plots at http://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/~rutherfo/mxd. > >I ended up running tests using the 115 gridpoint series and using all >mxd records. I also plotted the total NH mean, the land only NH >mean, then just a mean of 40-70 north. > >"xval" on the plots indicates the cross validation resolved variance >of the mean time series shown. "mult" is the total multivariate >resolved variance for all gridpoints over all time. (These are >actually normalized mean-squared errors, and we will probably be >switching to that terminology in the future.) At the bottom of the >page is a link to the yearly maps. > >If you want any of the data files please let me know. > >I'm restarting the 400 year runs and will let you know as soon as we >have some results. I intend to run with both the 115 gridpoints and >the 387 individual records and see what the difference is. > >Can you give me an idea of the observational error on the mxd data? >I've been talking with Tapio Schneider about the errors and he seems >to think that scaling the different data types by the observational >error might improve the results. > >Regards, > >Scott >-- >______________________________________________ > Scott Rutherford > >University of Virginia University of Rhode Island >Environmental Sciences Graduate School of Oceanography >Clark Hall South Ferry Road >Charlottesville, VA 22903 Narragansett, RI 02882 >srutherford@virginia.edu srutherford@gso.uri.edu >phone: (804) 924-4669 (401) 874-6599 >fax: (804) 982-2137 (401) 874-6160 > > _______________________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (804) 924-7770 FAX: (804) 982-2137 http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.html