cc: Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa , Ricardo Villalba , Jason Smerdon , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 15:41:39 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: Borehole in the Southern Hemisphere to: Henry Pollack Hi Henry - many thanks. We can keep the southern Africa curves (yours and instrumental). Great, thanks. I'm sorry that we're not tracking everything perfectly - this process involves lots of juggling. AND, we have to make sure we get things right. Thanks again, Peck >Hi Peck et al, > >Thanks for your note about the Africa borehole reconstructions, along >with the correspondence with Jason Smerdon. In my e-mail to you on >April 18,2006 I had indicated that the African work was unpublished. >However, I had forgotten that the Nature paper by Huang, Pollack and >Shen (Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed >from borehole temperatures, Nature 403, pp 756-758, 2000) actually >showed the reconstructions for both southern Africa and Australia as >bar graphs of century-long changes in Figure 3 of that paper. The >figure displaying both the Africa and Australia borehole >reconstructions that appears in the FAR draft (Figure 6.12? or was it >6.11?) shows temperature vs. time for five centuries, a display that >differs from the bar-graphs in the Nature paper only in format, not >data. > >Inasmuch as there have been no additions to the datasets since that >paper, it seems that we can correctly say that the reconstructions for >southern Africa and Australia have both been published in the Nature >(2000) paper. There is nothing "wrong" or outdated with either of those >reconstructions. We have, in addition, a newer and more expansive paper >about Australia alone (discussing the same reconstruction as appeared >in the Nature paper), now in press in the Journal of Quaternary >Science. This paper was already mentioned in the e-mail of April 18, >2006, which I will paste at the end of this message. > >Other questions? > >Cheers, >Henry > > ___ ___ Henry N. Pollack >[ \ / ] Professor of Geophysics > | \/ | Department of Geological Sciences > |MICHIGAN| University of Michigan >[___]\/[___] Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1005, U.S.A. > > Phone: 734-763-0084 FAX: 734-763-4690 > e-mail: hpollack@umich.edu > URL: www.geo.lsa.umich.edu/~hpollack/ > URL: www-personal.umich.edu/~hpollack/book.html >----------------------------------------------------------------------------- >e-mail of April 18, 2006: > >Date: Tue, 18 Apr 2006 16:26:27 -0400 [04/18/2006 04:26:27 PM EDT] >From: Henry Pollack Add to Address book >(hpollack@umich.edu) United States >To: Keith Briffa >Cc: jto@u.arizona.edu, eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no >Subject: IPCC FAR draft >Headers: Show All Headers >Hi Keith (and Peck and Eystein), > >I have recently been sent the current draft of the IPCC FAR by the US >Global Change >Research Program, asking for comments on the draft. This is the first >time I have seen >this product since we were feverishly exchanging e-mails in February. >Let me call to your >attention some small but not insignificant corrections to be made to >the next draft. > >Page 6-33, Section 6.6.1.2, line 22. The title of this section (in >italics) should be >changed to "What do ground surface temperature reconstructions derived >from subsurface >temperature measurements tell us?" > >Page 6-33, lines 49 and 52, there is a reference (Smerdon et al., in press). >This paper has now been published, so substitute "2006" for "in press", >and in the list >of references the citation should include the following: > >J. Geophys. Res. 111, D07101, doi:10.1029/2004JD005578 > >Page 6-34, lines 43 and 44. This section is dealing with the southern >hemisphere. The >sentence "...these both indicate unusually warm conditions prevailing >in the 20th century >(Pollack and Smerdon, 2004)" , and the reference therein, are both incorrect. > >The ground surface temperature changes over the last 500 years DO NOT >indicate unusually >warm conditions prevailing in the 20th century in Australia and >southern Africa. This is >because the unusually warm conditions developed late in the century, >after most of the >boreholes had already been logged. What the borehole reconstruction >for Australia does >show is very good correspondence with the Cook et al (2000) >reconstruction for Tasmania >and the Cook et al. (2002) recon for New Zealand. The Australia work is >described in a >manuscript “Five centuries of Climate Change in Australia: The View >from Underground” by >Pollack, Huang and Smerdon now under review in the Journal of >Quaternary Science. The >Africa work is unpublished. > >Is this e-mail to you sufficient to activate these changes? Or should I >submit these >comments to the US Government Review Panel? If I am to submit to the >latter, they require >all comments to be filed by May 9. > >Cheers, >Henry > >----------------------------------------------------------------------------- > >Quoting Jonathan Overpeck : > >>Hi Henry - hope you're having a nice summer. I just got back from the >>IPCC mtg where we made plans for generating the final draft of our >>paleo chapter. One question that came up is whether we can show (in >>Fig 6.12 - southern hemisphere climate records of the last >>millennium) your borehole recon for southern Africa. As you can see >>below, Jason Smerdon has told our SH lead, Ricardo Villalba that the >>recon we've used is not yet published. The question for you is >>whether we can/should use a version that IS published, We feel your >>recon is an important one to show as it represents a region not >>represented by other good reconstructions. But, we don't want to use >>something that has proven to be wrong. >> >>We appreciate your input on this issue. Also, if there is a published >>recon that we can use, would you pls send the recon (guess it's only >>one value per century, right?) and the ref we should cite? >> >>As you can imagine, we're under a tough time constraint, so if you >>can let us know as soon as you can, that would be great. >> >>Many thanks, Peck >> >>>X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 >>>From: "Ricardo Villalba" >>>To: "Keith R. Briffa" , >>> "Jonathan Overpeck" >>>Subject: Borehole in the Southern Hemisphere >>>Date: Thu, 29 Jun 2006 06:00:20 -0300 >>> >>>Hi Keith and Peck, >>>Please, find below a copy of the message that I got from Jason Smerdon, >>>regarding the South African borehole record. It looks that the record as it >>>is shown in Figure 6.12 has not been published, however former versions of >>>the South African reconstruction have been included in at least two papers. >>>Please, let me know your impressions to proceed with this matter. Cheers, >>>Ricardo >>> >>>----- Original Message ----- >>>From: "Jason Smerdon" >>>To: "Ricardo Villalba" >>>Sent: Wednesday, June 28, 2006 8:09 PM >>>Subject: Re: Publication in JQR >>> >>>> Hi Ricardo, >>>> >>>> I believe that you are referring to the reconstruction from the Southern >>>> Africa holes that we provided to Tim Osborn. That reconstruction has not >>>> been published as a time series as it is shown in Tim's figure. I >>>> believe, however, that the same reconstruction was published as a >>>> histogram in the following reference: >>>> >>>> Huang S, Pollack HN, Shen PY. 2000. Temperature trends over the last five >>>> centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature 403: 756-758. >>>> >>>> The only thing that might be different is the number of holes that were >>>> used, but I don't think that part of the dataset has been updated since >>>> Huang's 2000 paper. To confirm this I would encourage you to contact >>> > Henry Pollack at hpollack@umich.edu. He will know for sure. A similar >>>> reconstruction using a subset of the Southern Africa holes is referenced >>>> in the Australian paper: >>>> >>>> Tyson PD, Mason SJ, Jones MQW, Cooper GRJ. 1998. Global warming and >>>> geothermal profiles: The surface rock temperature response in South >>>> Africa. Geophysical Research Letters 25: 2711-2714. >>>> >>>> But the reconstruction will of course not be exactly equal to the larger >>>> Southern African reconstruction that we provided for Tim. I hope this >>>> helps and let me know if I can be of any further assistance. >>>> >>>> Jason >>>> >>>> On Wed, 28 Jun 2006, Ricardo Villalba wrote: >>>> >>>> > Dear Jason, >>>> > Thanks for the preprint. Do you know if the South African borehole >>>records >>>> > has been published? Thanks, >>>> > RIcardo >>>> > >>>> >> >> >>-- >>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >>Mail and Fedex Address: >> >>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>University of Arizona >>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/