date: Tue Aug 9 08:46:01 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: some upper ocean trends to: D.E.Harrison@noaa.gov Ed, A few thoughts. 1. For surface T (and SST separately) we have the concept of the effective # of spatial degrees of freedom (as especially for SST) T changes slowly. I'll attach our latest surface T paper (just submitted) and an earlier one. This concept might be useful, wrt errors in the various types of obs. I can see why most people try to take the base period out. We've tried to allow for the error of estimation of this as well. It is likely much easier for the surface as there are many more obs. 2. Is there a period for the 0.06 and 0.037 deg C increase? Presumbly it is since about 1950? 3. The Soon et al (2004) paper referred to on p3 is missing from the refs. Do you have a pdf of this? If it is Willie Soon, I'd be very doubtful about it being much use. He tends to be economical with the truth to suit his own ends! 4. Paper should be a useful addition to Ch 5 on oceans. Cheers Phil At 15:52 08/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil I'm sure that it has been extremely hectic for you. Hope you'll get a bit of rest next week. I've not sent the ms around, but shall take your suggestion to send to Nate and Jurgen. thanks. All best wishes. Ed Phil Jones wrote: Ed, I'll get to this the week after next. The next IPCC draft has to be in this Friday, then I have a week off ! Have you sent this draft to the convening lead authors of the ocean chapter? They are from memory Nathan Bindoff and Jurgen Willebrand. Syd is an LA on the chapter. I'm on Atmospheric Obs. with Kevin Trenberth. There are separate chapters this time for oceans, cryopshere and paleo. Cheers Phil At 22:45 05/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil My student and I have gotten together a ms on the upper ocean temperature trend project we've been at. We're at a bit of a loss to understand how Levitus and others have gotten the results they have...it appears that they've had to resort to a great deal of extrapolation. I've attached a preprint here, in case it might be of interest to you. Comments are always welcome. I hope your summer is going well. All best wishes, Ed Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------