date: Thu Aug 4 08:34:25 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Out in latest J. Climate to: mann@psu.edu Mike, He's been working with Myles Allen. Tim went to the first meeting of this Dutch funded project near Oxford last week. Tim said they were doing some odd things, like correlating all the proxy series they had with CET (yes CET)! Even the few SH proxies they have. The others who went to the meeting were Zorita and Moberg. Zorita was still showing the GKSS run with Moberg series, even though its forcing is too large, it doesn't have aerosols in the 20th century and has spin up problems for the first 200 years. Meeting wasn't that productive according to Tim. There was a belief amongst those there that all trees you used have lost low-freq, but this isn't true as you know. Also, it was a good job Keith wasn't there (he didn't go as his father died the weekend before and he's not been in CRU since) as Martin assumed that RCS was developed by Esper (who also wasn't there). Tim put them right on this one, but RCS isn't applicable for normal tree sites, nor useful for bristlecones. Tim said Esper was wrong is his use of RCS, but they wouldn't accept that as Esper wasn't there to defend himself! Basically only Tim knew anything about proxy data especially trees. Tim got the impression that they wanted to find that MBH is wrong. Given the previous comment, as you weren't there they are using double standards. So, in conclusion, act carefully. Don't jump in, but some carefully thought through comments should be productive. Suggest they read the RevG article. Martin isn't associated with the contrarians, but he's not in possession of the all the facts. He isn't aware of Casper's work, nor your latest study which you sent the other day, nor Rutherford et al. There still seems to be a belief in these lower responding proxies. This is something we want to work on more here, as the only way it seems to show that these lower-freq proxies aren't that great is to use higher-freq proxies. When you're back or sometime, can you remind Scott to send your latest set of proxies. I'll have some time in the autumn to work on them as the AR4 should be in by Aug 12. Science should be publishing 3 papers on the MSU issue by the end of Aug or early Sept. This is Mears/Wentz, Santer et al. and Sherwood et al. Latter shows that sondes are only truly reliable when flown at night. Daytime ones have all manner of problems with heating, just like air temps on board ships - hence the NMAT series. I'll forward another email for interest. Cheers Phil At 03:40 04/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil, Thanks, yes I'm in China now. As you might imagine, ,things have been very busy, but calming down a bit. Looks like Barton may be backing down... Martin Juckes has an invited talk in my session. I invited him, because he was working w/ Stott et al, and so I assume he was legit, and not associated with the contrarians. But if he's associated w/ the Dutch group, he may actually be a problem. Do you have additional information about him and what he has been up to? Thanks, mike Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Good to hear it is out ! Hope the changeover is going OK and life is getting back to normal. If you're not gone to China yet - you'll meet someone called Martin Dukes (?). He's giving a talk at your session. He knows about maths etc but not much about paleo ! Might need some education, but is probably OK. Not met him, but Tim has. Doing some worked funded by the Dutch govt on the hockey stick. Cheers Phil At 04:05 03/08/2005, you wrote: Dear Colleagues, FYI, two papers attached: First (reprint), Rutherford et al, is now out in latest issue of Journal of Climate. This paper, aside from addressing other more scientifically-worthwhile issues, also happens to discredit most of the McIntyre and McKitrick claims. Second (preprint), Mann et al, is formally in press (i.e., has gone off to the AMS production staff) in Journal of Climate. This paper strongly challenges the conclusions of von Storch et al (2004), and raises some methodological issues w/ the approach used by Moberg et al (2005). Feel free to pass along to others. Thanks Mike -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------