date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 10:11:12 +0100 (BST) from: Jason A Lowe subject: Re: sea-level to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk (Mike Hulme) Dear Mike, > Geoff Jenkins forwarded your/Jonathan's sea-level rise estimates to me for > the UKCIP scenario. Can I check I have interpretated them correctly? By > 2100 IS92d GHG run generates (wrt 1990): > > +27.0cm thermal expansion > +14.4cm glacier melt > +7.4cm Greenland melt > -7.2cm Antarctica melt > > +41.6cm total sea-level rise. > > This compares with something between 55cm and 60cm for 'IS92a' GHG run. >Are these calculations from the 1st ensemble member or from the ensemble-mean? > Sorry I couldn't get back to you last week, I was off sick. I see from the various E-mails that have been going backwards and forwards that Jonathan has clarified the ice melt calculations are correct wrt 1990. The thermal expansion 27.5 cm is relative to 1860 (there was a header on the raw data I forwarded to Geoff). The value relative to 1990 is 20.9 cm. These are the results for the Ensemble mean. On another subject, HadCM3 thermal expansion results are available as decadal averages. The yearly values should be available in a couple of days. Jonathan tells me you would like the HadCM3 data but was uncertain whether you require the yearly or decadal values - which would you like ? Regards Jason -- Dr Jason A Lowe Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research UK Met. Office Tel: +44(0)1344 856883 Fax: +44(0)1344 854898 E-mail: jalowe@meto.gov.uk