cc: "Stephen Leroy" , "claudia tebaldi" , "Tom Knutson" , "Knutti Reto" , "Daithi Stone" , "Tim Delsole" , "Stott, Peter" , "Myles Allen" , "Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]" , "Tim Barnett" , "Hans von Storch" , "Phil Jones" , "David Karoly" , "Toru Nozawa" , "Ben Santer" , "Richard Smith" , "Nathan Gillett" , "Michael Wehner" , "Doug Nychka" , "Xuebin Zhang" , "Jones, Gareth S (Climate Scientist)" , seung-ki.min@ec.gc.ca date: Sun, 6 Sep 2009 15:22:00 -0700 (PDT) from: "Tim Barnett" subject: Re: Second iteration to: "Gabi Hegerl" hi...gabi has it right. historically DOE has been pleased to see pre- defined tasks completed year by year and not so concerned about time sequence. best, tim > Hi all, I'll have a look next week, sorry for being slow. > > RE timeline: Its not very binding - so far, the agency seemed happy to > see each year a progress report with some progress, and tasks being > labelled 'done' or started - I am not under the impression that they > are very worried about the order of things as long as we can show we > are making good progress - of course, > if there were a concern about that, then they might start looking at > our promises. > So, if you distribute your activities over the timeline in a way that > results appear over time then we should be ok.... based on the last 2 > times. > > Gabi > > Quoting Stephen Leroy : > >> I've added a subtask 1.9 and a few sentences to subtask 2.2. Based on >> Tim DelSole's last version. >> >> Stephen >> >> >> Tom Knutson wrote: >>> All, >>> >>> FYI, I sent the following paragraph to Claudia yesterday, to flesh >>> out my part for Subtask 2.5: >>> >>> Tropical cyclones and climate change: issues in detection and >>> attribution of changes (Knutson) >>> >>> A key question for detection of a possible anthropogenic influence >>> on tropical cyclones is whether the strong correlation between >>> local Atlantic sea surface temperature and Atlantic hurricane power >>> dissipation, as shown by observed records since 1950, also holds >>> for a greenhouse gas-induced warming. If so, past hurricane >>> changes might be attributable to anthropogenic forcing via an >>> indirect attribution argument, since tropical Atlantic sea surface >>> warming has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing. Another >>> implication would be a very large implied increase in Atlantic >>> hurricane activity projected for the 21st century. Thus far, >>> dynamical models do not support such an indirect attribution or >>> dramatic projected increase, and thus there is not yet clear >>> evidence of an anthropogenic influence on Atlantic hurricanes. >>> Owing to the importance of this issue, continued work will involve >>> further analysis of hurricane observed data sets for possible >>> homogeneity problems, and continued development and refinement of >>> the dynamical models used to simulate climate change influences on >>> hurricane activity. >>> >>> Regards, >>> >>> --Tom Knutson >>> >>> Knutti Reto wrote: >>>> Attached some more suggestions for year 1-3 deliverables based on >>>> Daithi's version. It's hard to say when these things will happen as >>>> none >>>> of this is funded by IDAG, but it may not be that important in which >>>> year we list it. >>>> >>>> Reto >>>> >>>> >>>>> -----Original Message----- >>>>> From: Daithi Stone [mailto:stoned@csag.uct.ac.za] >>>>> Sent: Freitag, 4. September 2009 18:06 >>>>> To: Tim Delsole >>>>> Cc: claudia tebaldi; Stott, Peter; Myles Allen; Knutti Reto; Gabi >>>>> Hegerl; Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]; Tim Barnett; Hans von Storch; Phil >>>>> Jones; David Karoly; Toru Nozawa; Ben Santer; Daithi Stone; Richard >>>>> Smith; Nathan Gillett; Michael Wehner; Doug Nychka; Xuebin Zhang; Tom >>>>> Knutson; Jones, Gareth S (Climate Scientist); Stephen Leroy; seung- >>>>> ki.min@ec.gc.ca >>>>> Subject: Re: Second iteration >>>>> >>>>> Attached further comments (on Tim's and Peter's version) and the >>>>> beginning >>>>> of a schedule... >>>>> Cheers, >>>>> DA >>>>> >>>>>> Hi Claudia. Subtask 1.8 was completely blank, so I inserted a >>>>> paragraph >>>>>> and signed myself up. I've also signed up for a few more things. >>>> My >>>>>> insertions build upon Peter's revision submitted today. -Tim >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> Stott, Peter wrote: >>>>>>> Dear Claudia, >>>>>>> >>>>>>> I'm attaching a version with some suggested changes and I've signed >>>>>>> myself up for some more things. >>>>>>> I'm also attaching a figure for inclusion with the figure caption >>>>> below. >>>>>>> Something to think about in the background for AR5 is who might >>>> step >>>>>>> into the mighty shoes of Daithi for providing detection and >>>>> attribution >>>>>>> figures and analysis on the CMIP ensemble for AR5 - I don't imagine >>>>>>> Daithi wants to do that again so hopefully we can find a worthy >>>>>>> successor ! >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Thanks very much for all your efforts ! >>>>>>> Peter >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Distributions of near-surface temperature trends during 1950-1997 >>>> in >>>>>>> different regions constrained by the global analysis in a climate >>>>> forced >>>>>>> with both anthropogenic and natural forcings (red lines) and with >>>>>>> natural forcings only (green lines). The y axis gives the >>>> normalized >>>>>>> likelihood. The observed trend in each region is marked on each >>>>> panel as >>>>>>> a black line. The regions are South Australia (SAU), North >>>> Australia >>>>>>> (NAU), Central America (CAM), Western North America (WNA), Central >>>>> North >>>>>>> America (CAN), Eastern North America (ENA), Mediterranean Basin >>>>> (MED), >>>>>>> Northern Europe (NEU), South Asia (SAS), Atlantic (ATL), Pacific >>>>> (PAC). >>>>>>> Their geographical extents are defined in Christidis et al (2009). >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Dr. Peter Stott >>>>>>> Head, Climate Monitoring and Attribution, >>>>>>> Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter. EX1 3PB, UK >>>>>>> Tel +44(0)1392 886646 Fax +44(0)1392885681 >>>>>>> Email: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk >>>>>>> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk >>>>>>> -----Original Message----- >>>>>>> From: claudia.tebaldi@gmail.com [mailto:claudia.tebaldi@gmail.com] >>>>> On >>>>>>> Behalf Of claudia tebaldi >>>>>>> Sent: 31 August 2009 17:05 >>>>>>> To: Myles Allen; Knutti Reto; Stott, Peter; Gabi Hegerl; >>>>> Zwiers,Francis >>>>>>> [Ontario]; Tim Barnett; Hans von Storch; Phil Jones; David Karoly; >>>>> Toru >>>>>>> Nozawa; Ben Santer; Daithi Stone; Richard Smith; Nathan Gillett; >>>>> Michael >>>>>>> Wehner; Doug Nychka; Xuebin Zhang; Tom Knutson; Tim Delsole; Jones, >>>>>>> Gareth S (Climate Scientist); Stephen Leroy; seung-ki.min@ec.gc.ca >>>>>>> Subject: Second iteration >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Dear all, >>>>>>> >>>>>>> First of all, thank you to all of you that replied to my first >>>> draft >>>>>>> with thoughtful comments, suggestions, edits, content. I tried and >>>>>>> incorporated all that I could in this second version. >>>>>>> The thing still needs your input, but hopefully this time it is a >>>>> more >>>>>>> targeted, specific set of things you can give me, and hopefully not >>>>> as >>>>>>> time consuming. >>>>>>> My goal would be to have the proposal ready for submission at the >>>>> end of >>>>>>> next week, but we'll see. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> So, here is what I would like to get from you *by the end of this >>>>>>> week* so that I can work on it for a few more days before that >>>>>>> (admittedly arbitrary) deadline. >>>>>>> Actually, one thing I would like you to do sooner, i.e. as soon as >>>>> you >>>>>>> get this email, is to reply telling me if you are (or want to be) a >>>>>>> funded member, and, in that case, including a short bio. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Then, for the proposal's narrative, I would like it of course if >>>> you >>>>>>> read the entire thing again and checked/edited/suggested again if >>>>> you >>>>>>> see something you don't like or would like changed. I don't have >>>> any >>>>>>> figures yet in there and it would be extremely helpful if I could >>>>> get a >>>>>>> few (with captions) to make the proposal less black and white. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> The most important feedback I need is related to the work plan, >>>>> where >>>>>>> some of you are missing still. Please go through it and sign >>>>> yourself >>>>>>> up. And if you see items that are still only a single sentence, >>>>> please >>>>>>> flesh those out. Even more importantly, I need specific >>>> year-by-year >>>>>>> deliverables from the various groups that are responsible for the >>>>>>> tasks/subtasks. Maybe the heads of the groups can come up with >>>> that >>>>>>> kind of prediction/promise. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> That's about it. There are a few specific comments in the text >>>> where >>>>> I >>>>>>> need info, you'll see, but those are few and sparse. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> So, summarizing >>>>>>> >>>>>>> ASAP: >>>>>>> - Do you need money? Reply immediately with a yes or no, >>>>> please, >>>>>>> and send brief bio if the answer is yes (all) BY THE END OF THIS >>>>> WEEK >>>>>>> (meaning you can use the weekend too!): >>>>>>> - Check narrative as a whole (all) >>>>>>> - Contribute a figure w/caption (all) >>>>>>> - Sign up for tasks/subtasks (all) >>>>>>> - Come up with year-by-year deliverables (Tasks' quadres) >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Thank you all for your help. Again, I hope I did not >>>>> misrepresent/forget >>>>>>> anything substantial in trying to merge all the different streams >>>> of >>>>>>> feedback you kindly provided. >>>>>>> I'm attaching the document in two formats, so that hopefully >>>>> everybody >>>>>>> will be able to open it ok (I'm trying to preemptively eliminate >>>>> every >>>>>>> excuse you can come up with for not doing this ;-) ) >>>>>>> >>>>>>> bye >>>>>>> >>>>>>> c >>>>>>> -- >>>>>>> Claudia Tebaldi >>>>>>> Research Scientist, Climate Central >>>>>>> http://www.climatecentral.org >>>>>>> +1 (303) 775 5365 >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> -- >>>>>> Timothy DelSole >>>>>> Associate Professor >>>>>> Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences >>>>>> George Mason University >>>>>> Fairfax, VA >>>>>> >>>>>> Mailing Address: >>>>>> Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies >>>>>> 4041 Powder Mill Rd. >>>>>> Suite 302 >>>>>> Calverton, MD 20705-3106 >>>>>> >>>>>> email: delsole@cola.iges.org >>>>>> Office: 301-902-1258 >>>>>> Fax: 301-595-9793 >>>>>> COLA: 301-595-7000 >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>> > > > > -- > Gabriele Hegerl > chair of climate system science > School of GeoSciences > University of Edinburgh > http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/people/person.html?indv=1613 > > -- > The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in > Scotland, with registration number SC005336. > > > >