date: Fri Nov 28 13:21:13 2003 from: Mike Hulme subject: Fwd: Progress towards a global climate community based on equity to: v.mcgregor Please print for me. Mike Reply-To: From: "Titus Alexander" To: Cc: Subject: Progress towards a global climate community based on equity (WBGU report & Chanctonbury Initiative) Date: Fri, 28 Nov 2003 13:05:34 -0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.4510 Importance: High Dear Colleague, I am delighted to inform you that our conference on climate change at Wilton Park (15-17 November) proposed a bold Initiative for a global climate community based on contraction and convergence. I attach a statement which emerged through working groups. It does not represent the views of every participant, but a consensus of the large majority. A report from the event will follow. You are warmly invited to discuss, endorse and disseminate this proposal, post it on your website and pass it on to anyone who may be interested. As you may know, the recent report of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) also recommends the creation of a "global climate community" based on contraction and convergence to equal per capita emissions rights ( [1]http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_engl.pdf ) . This is a detailed and important document, which offers a real opportunity to create an equitable global solution to climate change. It may be seen as a positive response to the call by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee at the end of CoP 9: "We don't berlieve that the ethical principles of democracy could support any norm other than that all citizens in the world should have equal rights to use ecological resources." Other governments could make an historic breakthrough by approaching the German government to discuss these ideas. Key passages the WBGU report are as follows: The Council s recommendation: Aim towards equal per-capita emission rights and linear harmonization of emissions shares The WBGU recommends that emission rights for the greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol be allocated according to the contraction and convergence approach, taking 2050 as convergence year. This means that global emissions would need to be reduced substantially over the long term (contraction). In a further step, it would be agreed that the per-capita emissions of all states must reach equal levels in a continuous process extending until 2050 (convergence). In particular, this means that the percapita emissions of industrialized countries, which are still comparatively high at present, must be reduced, while some developing countries can initially increase their per-capita emissions. The principle of constancy requires that there be no sudden switch to equal per-capita emissions, because of the resulting stresses on the global economy. The approach further presupposes a functioning global emissions trading scheme, in order to reduce the costs of the transformation process. On p 58 the report says: The Council is aware of the danger that individual states could entirely refuse to adopt emission limits and could thus assume a free rider position. To cope with this, the London based Global Commons Institute, which originally developed the C&C model, has proposed a Global Climate Community': A group of core states (EU, some Umbrella Group states, developing countries) adopts emissions reductions according to the C&C principle. The Council similarly recommends to the coalition of voluntary participants that it retains the basic idea of the C&C allocation approach despite the absence of important countries. On the other hand, the Council expressly warns that such a situation the climate change mitigation goal would most probably not be attained this will be all the more so the more large-scale emitters refuse to join the regime. The goal of coalition members must therefore be to expand the group of participants as swiftly and comprehensively as possible. Positive incentives alone will probably not have sufficient effect. The resources required to buy the participation of all free riders could not be mustered. Therefore the coalition members should agree that they will impose political and economic sanctions against free rider states when the need arises. 6.2 Shaping commitments equitably Aiming towards equal emission rights The WBGU bases its arguments additionally on the egalitarian principle, which can be derived from the human right to equal treatment. In terms of relations among the parties to the Convention or Protocol, this corresponds to the principle of equity (Art. 3(1) UNFCCC). It follows that ultimately, only an allocation of emission rights according to equal per-capita shares can be considered just. Implementing contraction and convergence At the long-term global emissions must be reduced significantly (contraction). In addition, the WBGU postulates the principle of constancy, according to which abrupt measures leading to drastic effects should be avoided in socio-economic systems. A sudden switch to a per-capita allocation of tradable emission certificates is therefore not recommended: The resulting high transfer payments from industrialized to developing countries could have severe effects that would impact on the economies of all regions. For these reasons, the Council argues in favour of moving in a continuous process from the present allocation of shares, which entails very great imbalance in per-capita emissions, towards allocation according to equal per-capita shares (convergence). Building upon the review of scenario computations set out in Chapter 3, the WBGU recommends this contraction and convergence (C&C) approach with a linear convergence of emissions shares towards equal per-capita emission rights by the year 2050. This should embrace the emissions of CO2,CH4,N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (the Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases) from energy, industry, agriculture and waste management. The emissions of other greenhouse gases would be accounted for as CO2-equivalent values according to their global warming potential, as already provided for in the Kyoto Protocol. If developing countries are unable or unwilling accept national-level emission caps in accordance with the C&C approach from the outset, the WBGU recommends an opt-out clause for countries with relatively low economic capacities, i.e. relatively low per-capita emissions and per-capita income. This means that states would need to agree on a threshold allowing to make use of the opt-out clause. For instance, per-capita income and per-capita emissions could be combined in one indicator. When states exceed this threshold, they would be obliged to participate in the global C&C regime. The reduction burden of developing countries which make use of the opt-out clause would be spread across the participating countries. This would ensure attainment of the stabilization target and thus compliance with the climate window. In this context, CDM projects in nonparticipating countries could have the function reducing burdens and integrating non-participants into the system. It needs to be noted that such a gradual transition from the present structure of the Kyoto Protocol (with its distinction between Annex-I and non-Annex-I states) towards a global C&C regime can only succeed if opt-out criteria are tight enough for the participating countries to be able to cope with the additional emissions reduction burdens. 6.5 Linking climate protection consistently with global governance Supporting convergence between industrialised and developing countries To do justice to the vision of sustainable development, social and economic exigencies must be taken into account besides the climate protection goal. So that the climate protection goal can be attained over the long term at low costs, climate policy needs to be linked consistently with global governance and development policy. The aim must be to promote social and economic convergence between industrialized and developing countries, and to facilitate technology transfer. In addition to development cooperation activities focussed more firmly upon sustainability, a first step towards convergence can be to open markets to the products of developing countries. So that in the course of the globalization process, worldwide economic and social convergence can occur under circumstances characterized by declining rates of population growth over the long term (from 2050 onwards), development cooperation needs to be further intensified. In order to avoid an increase of the global population beyond the year 2050, education and health programmes for women in developing countries need to be promoted, as does the introduction of systems of social security. [2]http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_engl.pdf Yours sincerely Titus Alexander Development Consultant Council for Education in World Citizenship 32 Carisbrooke Road London E17 7EF Tel: 020 8521 6977 Mobile: 07720394740 Email: titus@cewc.org [3]www.cewc.org Titus Alexander 32 Carisbrooke Road London E17 7EF Tel: 020 8521 6977 Fax: 020 8521 5788 Mobile: 07720394740 Email: titus@cewc.org The One World Trust Houses of Parliament, London, SW1A 0AA tel +44 (0)20 7219 3825, direct +44 (0)20 7219 2582 mob +44 (0) 7789 483 221 owt@parliament.uk [4]http://www.oneworldtrust.org Charity No. 210180 Titus Alexander Development Consultant Council for Education in World Citizenship 32 Carisbrooke Road London E17 7EF Tel: 020 8521 6977 Mobile: 07720394740 Email: titus@cewc.org [5]www.cewc.org