date: Fri, 20 Apr 2001 10:15:00 +0100 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Re: release to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk X-Sender: k319@pop.uea.ac.uk Date: Thu, 19 Apr 2001 14:34:35 +0100 To: Phil Jones From: Annie Ogden Subject: Re: release OK. It now reads as follows. I've made a couple of additional changes - including last two paras. Annie Scientists from the University of East Anglia's world-famous Climatic Research Unit have brought together climate records from all over the world for the past 1000 years - from instruments, documents, tree rings, ice cores and corals. Natural climate phenomena such as El Niņo and the North Atlantic Oscillation are probably not responsible for the unprecedented warming of the 20th century, say the researchers, whose findings are published in the international journal Science this week (April 27). "The accuracy of records for the first half of the millennium is sometimes queried. We have calculated errors and the picture is clearer: all records show that the 20th century experienced the greatest warming of the millennium, said Professor Phil Jones, co-director of UEA's Climatic Research Unit. "Examining this broad span of records from all parts of the world, we see that the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is responsible for the UK's recent milder, wetter winters, has behaved in this unusual way before - notably in the 1730s, the mid-19th century and in the early 1900s. Similarly, we find elevated activity of El Niņo events in some earlier periods. Some people have attributed global warming to these two phenomena - but the records show that their past activity did not result in significant warming." Knowledge of past climate variability is crucial for understanding and modelling current and future climate trends, says Professor Jones, who undertook the wide-ranging review of climate records with colleagues Dr Tim Osborn and Dr Keith Briffa. Instrumental records do not go back far enough to give the complete picture. Tree rings, coral and ice cores also preserve an accurate picture of climate variability from one year to the next, and the review includes historical documentary evidence. But the UEA researchers highlight the dangers of taking documentary sources at face value. Accounts of the Thames freezing over are often used to demonstrate colder winters of the past. But a major factor in this was the way London Bridge was built with a number of piers, encouraging 'ponding'. The Thames did not freeze in 1962-3 - the third coldest winter since 1659. Indeed no complete freezing has occurred since the bridge was replaced in 1825-35. -- .................................................... Annie Ogden, Press and PR Manager University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ. Tel:+44 (0)1603 592764 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------