date: Mon Jan 5 12:44:34 2009 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: IPCC forecasts vs naïve benchmark to: "Folland, Chris" Chris, Sounds good. Autumn fine. Cheers Phil At 12:10 05/01/2009, you wrote: Dear Phil Thanks very much. I could give a talk on the global forecasting paper and indicate the light it throws on the causes of a lack of recent global warming. I could combine this with the work we have done rthat shows that the current quasi-hiatus in warming for a decade is still consistent with 21st century model projections. Probably later this autumn? Chris Prof. Chris Folland Research Fellow, Seasonal to Decadal Forecasting (from 2 June 2008) Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1647 432978 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) <[1]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk> Fellow of the Met Office Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [[2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 05 January 2009 11:56 To: Folland, Chris Subject: RE: IPCC forecasts vs naïve benchmark Chris, Have a good trip to OZ. Just before Christmas I recommended that you be continued as an Honorary Prof. I don't see why this shouldn't get approved. It won't be my fault if it is! There isn't a maximum number we can have. I said you'd be coming up at some point in the year to give another talk. Maybe when you have a near complete draft of the global T forecasting paper that would make a good idea. Cheers Phil At 19:31 02/01/2009, you wrote: Dear Phil Thanks. I have not heard of Scott Armstrong. He clearly works in the economics field. Int J Forecasting is such a journal. I suspect all of his work has been with economics statistical forecasting. Many of his principles, (can guess some and many doubtless are indeed relevant to the statistical aspects of the global annual forecasting methods) would not apply to dynamical predictions in the same way I have hardly read a worse paper. Its so bad in such fundamental ways, I dont know where to start. The only concern I have at present about the current IPCC results is that the evidence grows slowly that 0.03C a year warming in the next decade may be too fast despite our decadal forecast. On the other hand (and this is important) we can expect to see the biggest changes in HadCRUT to date between versions 3 and 4 - depending somewhat on the availability of the forthcoming reprocessed (A)ATSR) SST data 1991-2010 and of course on post 1945 bias corrections to SST which are likely to be complex and non trivial. Hopefully my global forecaasting paper when done (will send you a draft in due course before submission) will be a mite better! But I am now concentrating on work related to developments of the Baines and Folland (2007, J CLIM) paper for presentations in Australia in Feb. The OZs are paying most of this trip so I'd better do a good job. Includes a presentation at the SH Met and Ocean Conf in Melbourne. So global temp forecasting paper on hold till after I get back (away 4 Feb - 28 Feb with some holiday - Pat is coming). By the way, would it help to have an update of my "long" CV regarding my Professorship? - which I hope can be renewed in Aug 2009? I keep this CV up reasonably to date in the form of a Personal Portfolio and an external papers list. Cheers Chris Prof. Chris Folland Research Fellow, Seasonal to Decadal Forecasting (from 2 June 2008) Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1647 432978 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) < [3]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > Fellow of the Met Office Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [ [4]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 02 January 2009 15:49 To: Folland, Chris Subject: Fwd: IPCC forecasts vs naïve benchmark Chris, I got this email over the Christmas break. Back in CRU today I picked up all paper from the website and it is attached. I initially thought it might be useful to you when you write up your global temperature forecasting technique. How wrong I was! I didn't believe it was possible to make so many mistakes in a paper and get it published - but it seems that it is quite easy! Anyway - Scott Armstrong is apparently very well know in statistical forecasting and has a series of rules, exemplified in his book from 2001. He may know something about his field, but it is clear he doesn't know anything about the climate system! I suspect these authors will make a big splash in certain media outlets when this paper comes out. Cheers Phil Date: Tue, 30 Dec 2008 20:32:09 +1300 From: Kesten Green Subject: IPCC forecasts vs naïve benchmark To: p.jones@uea.ac.uk X-Mailer: Microsoft Office Outlook 11 Thread-index: AclqTdq8KopVY0uFR7OLOoP5ME2MQg== X-Canit-CHI2: 0.00 X-Bayes-Prob: 0.0001 (Score 0, tokens from: @@RPTN, f028) X-Spam-Score: 0.00 () [Hold at 5.00] HTML_MESSAGE,SPF(none,0) X-CanItPRO-Stream: UEA:f028 (inherits from UEA:default,base:default) X-Canit-Stats-ID: 15056011 - 837a072efee1 (trained as not-spam) X-Antispam-Training-Forget: [5]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=15056011&m=837a072efee1&c=f X-Antispam-Training-Nonspam: [6]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=15056011&m=837a072efee1&c=n X-Antispam-Training-Spam: [7]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=15056011&m=837a072efee1&c=s X-Scanned-By: CanIt (www . roaringpenguin . com) on 139.222.131.184 Dear Professor Jones, Scott Armstrong, Willie Soon, and I compare the accuracy of the IPCC's forecasts with those from a naïve benchmark model in our new paper "Benchmark forecasts for climate change". The paper has been accepted for publication, but we still have two weeks to make further changes. We are particularly keen to learn about anything that might be obscure or incorrect in what we have written. Climate change is an important forecasting problem because fear of dangerous manmade global warming has led to major public policy expenditures. Our paper is located at [8]http://publicpolicyforecasting.com. Yours sincerely, Kesten Green Dr Kesten C Green Business and Economic Forecasting Unit, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. Contact: T +64 4 976 3245; M +64 21 456 516; F +64 4 976 3250 PO Box 10800, Wellington 6143, New Zealand. [9]forecastingprinciples.com Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------