date: Wed, 24 May 2006 14:05:17 +0100 from: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk subject: BP briefing to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Tim and Keith I have to give a presentation to senior BP Executives next Wednesday (list is Steven E. Koonin Chief Scientist Joseph P. Merlini, Director Strategic Cooperation Chris J. Mottershead, Distinguished Advisor, Energy & the Environment John K. Wells, Vice President Environment Duncan G.M. Eggar, Senior Business Advisor & Team Leader -Sustainable Mobility) answering amongst other questions the following question "Many papers published in the past few years show that the MBH record very likely under-estimates temperature variability over the past 1500 years. Presumably the GCMs were able to reproduce (or were tuned to) the low MBH variability. How do they have to be modified to reproduce the greater variability? What implications does that have for attribution and predictions going forward?" Figures 6.10 and Fig 6.13 of the IPCC AR4 would be useful but of course they are still under wraps. Alternatively the latest equivalent I have is from Mann et al, EOS, 84, 256-258, 2003 but this does not include series like Moberg 2005. Do you know whether there is a more recent equivalent published like Fig 6.10 and 6.13 ? Many thanks for any help or pointers, Peter -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Dr. Peter Stott Climate Scientist Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit) Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5613 Fax: +44 (0)118 378 5615 Mobile: 07753880683 E-mail:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk NOTE WILL ALSO BE AT EXETER PART OF EACH WEEK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~