date: Wed, 27 Sep 2006 18:10:03 +0100 from: "Saffron O'Neill" subject: Re: Expert elicitation and polar bears to: "Tim Osborn" Hi Tim Yes, fair point. I've got 9 hours on the train to and from Newcastle tomorrow so I'll muse over it in more detail then! How's the modelling going? Is it in the format you expected? Saffron ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tim Osborn" To: "Saffron O'Neill" ; "Irene Lorenzoni" ; "Mike Hulme" Sent: Wednesday, September 27, 2006 9:06 AM Subject: Re: Expert elicitation and polar bears > Hi Saffron, > > your document makes a reasonable case for this approach. Obviously you > can't be more explicit about the material you will present to them yet, > until we've had a look together at the IPCC model results that I'm > extracting. But perhaps you can already be a bit more explicit about the > question(s) you will be asking them? What precisely do you want this > expert group to make their judgements on? > > Cheers > > Tim > > At 18:06 26/09/2006, Saffron O'Neill wrote: >>Dear Irene, Mike and Tim >> >>Thanks for all your individual comments so far on operationalising the >>icons. To update: >> >>Irene has suggested that a produce a quick intro to how I plan to >>operationalise the polar bear icon. At the moment, the plan is to use an >>expert elicitation. Tim has kindly agreed to investigate the use of some >>sea ice models and hopefully this will be completed in the near future. >> >>An expert elicitation can be a really time-consuming process so I need to >>get it underway quickly if I'm to be able to present this information to >>the public in stage 3 by the new year! >> >>I've attached my justification for expert elicitation, including a brief >>explanation of how this may be carried out. I've also included a very >>brief lit. review of exactly what I am calling an expert elicitation in >>this context, with pros and cons. >> >>As usual, I'd appreciate any feedback! Could we (Irene and Mike) meet to >>discuss this proposal, perhaps on Friday, or next week? >> >>I'm at the Tyndall away day tomorrow and off to Newcastle on Thursday to >>meet Jim Hall and Rich Dawson to discuss the London icon, so apologies if >>this is a little rough round the edges - I wanted to get it off ASAP. >> >>Saffron >> >> >> > > Dr Timothy J Osborn, Academic Fellow > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > > **Norwich -- City for Science: > **Hosting the BA Festival 2-9 September 2006 > >