cc: Jean Claude Duplessy , Thomas Stocker , Keith Briffa , jean jouzel , jwillebrand@ifm.uni-kiel.de date: Thu, 20 Jul 2000 09:18:59 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: Euresco conference "abrupt climate change dynamics" November to: Keith Alverson Hi Keith and friends - First, I'd be happy to help and serve on the org commitee. Second, I appreciate/like comments from Jurgen and Jean-Claude. Jurgen's suggestions would make the mtg much stronger on the CLIVAR side. On the CLIVAR side, having Kevin there is a great asset, and although I'd like to endorse Jurgen's recommended talk idea, I'd also like to stir up some good debate by suggesting we invite either Mark Cane or Amy Clement to talk about abrupt changes in ENSO/tropical Pacific from a simple model point of view. If I'm right, this might provoke some interesting discussion, particularly if Kevin is in the room. Jansen and Keigwin both have new results, which would be a plus. I also suspect that there is a good "new" perspective on the Nordic ice core data, but the question is how to get it. Dave Fisher always seems to be doing new and different work (also good) in terms of synthesizing the northern Canada work with the Greenland work, and I'm pretty sure he has new data in the mix as well. We could ask him, and also check to see if he could bring in the older Greenland (Dansgaard) data as Jean-Claude suggests. I agree that we're overdue for a reconciliation of the old data (and interesting inferences, like neoglacial cycles) with the new (lots more coverage and variables).I could check with Fisher if you'd like - a good Canadian too. One general comment about the speaker list is that I believe it is the one created a year ago to get the funding. As such, it emphasizes some talks that were "hot" a year ago, but are now published and "old news." This includes the work on the 8.2 event - I suggest we find one person to summarize the previous data-oriented work (either Alley, Von Graffenstien or ?) and then have a matching data talk. I'd follow the same tack with with the mid-holocene African change. Each of the speakers we have - Claussen, deMenocal (note the small d!), Gasse, Harrison and Joussaume - do not invite them all to talk unless they have some substantial NEW material. Each has written some great papers in the last few years, but it will be a bit boring to hear what is already published. So, figure out who has new stuff, and ask them to combine that with a summary of the already published. Again, I'd try to get one or two data talks, and then one or two model talks, but only if they all have SOME new stuff. So, the question is, what is new and interesting. The Cane/Clement stuff is good - it may be published by then, but not yet. More Americans (I know this stuff best, and we need to consider a more american balance to the mtg (see below - I think we can get $$ for this). Anyhow, focusing on NEW science - North American Holocene drought variability - there are new data and a great summary emerging. Lots of abrupt change, moving dunes, very long droughts, regime shifts - all in a region that is the "breadbasket" of the US. There are several good potential speakers, but right now, I'm guessing Steve Forman might be the best - he has a new summary ms. just submitted somewhere. Thus, my guess is that it would be published just about next fall - perfect timing. He talks about dynamics too. Suggest you add Steve Forman. - S. Asian (Indian) monsoon variability in the Holocene. - here the person is Carrie Morrill. She''ll defend next fall, so a new face that would be good to encourage. She has new data from Tibet that is pretty impressive - century scale variabilty is much larger than I would have guessed. Also, she's working on a new summary that brings in a much improved Asian monsoon perspective on the Younger Dryas, the 8/2 k even, the 4 k event, the Little Ice Age, etc. Again, the paper probably won't be published in fall 2001, but it will be close. NEW science. Only problem is that she's my student (just joking, but you should know that this bright new paleo person is from the Univer. of Arizona). I'd add her to the list. We need some new faces! - ESNO and N. American drought over the last 200 years. There is an emerging picture that ENSO variability was much more decadal during the 19th century. This will be highlighted in a paper soon to appear in Nature (Urban et al), supporting the tree-ring (teleconnection) inferred perspective. This will be a bit old, then, by fall 2001. However, there is going to be a pile of new work on the nature of this "abrupt" shift (and others in the Holocene), and the corresponding shifts in drought variablity over North America (and perhaps further south too). Unfortunately, the person doing this interesting work is my wife - Julie Cole. Needless to say, I think it would be great to invite her, but will understand if you don't think it is appropriate. The work will be NEW and of interest to CLIVAR types for sure. - Julio Betancourt has a paper coming out in Science that has a very interesting new view of change in South America (Atacama desert). This is just the tip of the story, however, and the group might appreciate hearing from Julio - a story that is different from the one we have heard for the last decade - quite possibly the most interesting S. American perspective of recent years. There would be NEW science for next fall, as they're actively working down there. - as for volcanic forcing, we do have a new summary paper in press in JGR as Jean-Claude mentioned. But, it only concerns the last 500 years. I propose you let me check in with Greg Zielinski (a co-author on that JGR paper) to see if he has a new perspective on the role volvanic eruptions may have played in generating abrupt shifts farther back in time. Greg is the american expert on this, and I'm always interested in his latest - he always has unpublished results that make you think. Could be better than focusing on the last 500 years, when, frankly, I'm not sure the volcano story is all that positive. My story (unpublished) is that I think proxies might not have the ability to give a faithful record of the impacts of the really big eruptions (eg Tambora). In summary, I'd shift around things to ensure that each speaker has exciting new results to present in a solid context of past work. Paleo mtgs of late have tended to have too many "old news" talks. I'm 95% sure that we could get US NSF support for any US additional US participants you wish to invite, so the ones I suggest above will probably not cost a Euro. Let me know what to do. Hope this helps, cheers, Peck Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 tel: +1 520 622-9062 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/Faculty_Pages/Overpeck.J.html http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/