cc: tar_la@earth.usgcrp.gov, tar_reved@earth.usgcrp.gov, wgii.bureau@earth.usgcrp.gov, ddokken@earth.usgcrp.gov date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 18:27:58 -0500 from: ddokken@usgcrp.gov (Dave Dokken) subject: Approved SRLFC Outline to: tar_cla@earth.usgcrp.gov IPCC SPECIAL REPORT Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry The Special Report on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry is being prepared in response to a request from SBSTA at its Eighth Session (Bonn, 2-12 June 1998). The outline of the IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry was approved by the IPCC Panel at its Fourteenth Session. This outline responds to the SBSTA mandate and addresses issues raised in FCCC/SBSTA/1998/INF1. It has been designed to provide scientific, technical, economic and social information that can assist governments operationalize Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol. In addition it will provide information relevant to assessing the potential for other human-induced additional activities as mentioned in Article 3.4 and issues associated with operationalizing this Article. It also provides information relevant to other Articles of the Kyoto Protocol. While the Speciaql Report will primarily focus on carbon dioxide, it should address methane and nitrous oxide as appropriate. The Special Report will be policy relevant, but will not be policy prescriptive. The IPCC Panel has approved the topics that need to be addressed in the Special Report, but will allow the lead authors to re-organize the outline to minimize duplication of topics and ensure the most logical flow of information. The IPCC Panel did request that the outlines of the chapters dealing with Articles 3.3 and 3.4 be as parallel as possible. The Panel also recognized that the content of different chapters is closely linked, therefore, noting that many chapters will need to have common lead authors to ensure consistency. In addition, there is a need for common lead authors with the relevant chapters in the Third Assessment Report. The Special Report on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry will be approved and accepted by the Panel meeting in a Plenary Session since it cuts across the three working groups and the task force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI). The procedures for the preparation, review, acceptance, approval and publication of IPCC Special Reports shall apply. The Special Report will be chaired by R. Watson and guided by two "overall co-ordinating lead authors". Each chapter will have one or two co-ordinating lead authors in addition to numerous lead and contributing authors. There will be a steering committee for this Special Report comprising of the IPCC Chair, two IPCC Bureau members from each working group (one of the co-chairs and one vice chair) and the chair of the task force on inventories who will approve the selection of co-ordinating lead authors and lead authors and oversee the whole process. The Secretary of the IPCC and the heads of the working group technical support units will be ex-officio members of the steering committee. There will be a one-person technical support unit for this report located with the Chair, IPCC Secretary or one of the working group technical support units (funding and the identification of the individual for this position has yet to be identified). IPCC Special Report Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Summary for Policymakers (5-10 pages) Chapter 1 - Introduction and Mandate (2 pages) This chapter will briefly discuss the SBSTA mandate and the relationship of this Special Report to the IPCC Third Assessment Report. * Chapter 2 - Global Perspective (10 pages) This chapter will be a primer to explain how the carbon cycle operates, and the potential to influence the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases by land-use activities. Executive Summary 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Biogeochemical Cycles (global stocks, flows, processes, timescales and uncertainties) 2.3. Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Role of Management (sources, sinks and stocks by land cover type, land-use and region) 2.4. Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions and Sequestration Potential (competition for land) 2.5. Features of Global Carbon Models and National Inventories Chapter 3 - Implications of Different Definitions and Generic Issues (30 pages) This chapter will focus on exploring the implications of different definitions on the Kyoto Protocol, the different methodologies that can be employed to measure and assess carbon stocks and pools, and issues associated with accounting and reporting. Executive Summary 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Implications of Different Definitions by Broad Category (e.g., forests, afforestation, reforestation, deforestation, forest degradation, sustainable forest management, restoration of degraded lands, agriculture and land practices, and full carbon accounting and its anthropogenic implications) 3.3 Measurement of Above and Below Ground Biomass and Soil Carbon (stocks -- remote sensing and in-situ; flows -- direct flux measurements and stock differences; accuracy and precision; verifiability; propagation of errors; effects of contiguous and non-contiguous commitment periods; integration and consistency of methods -- national inventories and modeling). 3.4 Accounting and Reporting Issues (Direct human-induced vs indirect human-induced vs natural; program vs project activities; baselines - 1990 baselines, 1990-2007 baselines; stock differences 2012-2008; attribution of stocks and changes in stocks -- pre-1990 vs post-1990 activities; fires and pests; permanence, additionality; leakage; techniques for treating uncertainties; and costs of accounting and reporting). Chapter 4: Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation Activities -- Article 3.3 (25 pages) This chapter will address a wide range of scientific and technical issues and options associated with Article 3.3 by region. Executive Summary 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Options for definitions and their general implications (afforestation, reforestation and deforestation) 4.3 Processes, timescales, and carbon accounting rules (pools; spatial scales -- project to biome to national inventory; direct vs indirect) 4.4 Data needs for operationalizing afforestation, reforestation and deforestation activities (observational and modelling methods for area change in land use and carbon stock for different time periods; operational implications of uncertainties; sensitivity analysis of uncertainties; verification) 4.5 Data availability (ground, aircraft and satellite data for land use/cover and carbon stocks in all pools by ecosystem - at the project, biome and national inventory scale; accuracy and precision; costs; models) 4.6 Regional and global potentials, differences and implications of afforestation, reforestation and deforestation activities (by pool; activity type -- policies, practices, and technologies; Annex I countries and by region) 4.7 Associated impacts of afforestation, reforestation and deforestation activities (environmental -- biodiversity, soil quality, watersheds, etc. and socio-economic -- poverty, employment, resettlement, agriculture, forestry, etc.) Chapter 5: Additional Human-Induced Activities -- Article 3.4 (30 pages) This chapter will address a wide range of issues associated with assessing the potential of additional human-induced activities mentioned in Article 3.4. It will also address issues that would arise in operationalizing Article 3.4. Executive Summary 5.1 Introduction (implications of Kyoto Protocol; ancillary benefits; sequestration, emissions reductions and substitution potential; additional human-induced activities -- Arable, Pastoral and Forestry Land Management, Restoration of Degraded Lands, Protected Areas, Agroforestry, Urban Expansion and Infrastructure, Modern Biomass Energy, etc.) 5.2 Processes, timescales and carbon accounting rules (pools; spatial scales -- project to biome to national inventory; direct vs indirect; temporary vs long-term sequestration) 5.3 Data needs for operationalizing Article 3.4 activities (past, present and projected land - use activities and cover; carbon pools; project and program; observational and modelling methods for area change in land use and carbon stock for different time periods; operational implications of uncertainties; sensitivity analysis of uncertainties; verification) 5.4 Potential magnitude of carbon sinks and sources by activity type, regionally and globally (barriers; costs and benefits; short vs long-term sequestration, including threats to permanence; accounting rules; detailed table on types of current land use and practices which have implications for C; detailed table on types of land use change and conversion; highlight important changes; competition for land; evolution vs additional activities) 5.6 Land Use and its relationship to carbon and energy (modern biomass and energy- intensive materials -- tables of specific options) 5.7 Associated impacts of additional activities (environmental -- biodiversity, soil quality, watersheds, etc. and socio-economic -- poverty, employment, resettlement, agriculture, forestry, etc.) Chapter 6: Project Based Activities (10 pages) This chapter will address the unique issues associated with project-based activities related to the Kyoto Protocol. Executive Summary 6.1 Introduction (relationship between projects, regional and national programs and national accounts; potential magnitude of activities in terms of land area and carbon) 6.2 Specific issues arising from the implementation of biotic activities (accounting units and procedures; baseline and additionality questions; leakage; permanence; risks and risk management strategies; associated costs, benefits and impacts, including employment) 6.3 Scientific and technical aspects of monitoring, evaluation and verification (protocols, approaches, costs and practicalities; uncertainties; pilot project experience) Chapter 7: Implications of the Kyoto Protocol for the Reporting Guidelines (10 pages) This chapter will review the adequacy of the IPCC reporting guidelines for the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories in light of the Kyoto Protocol assess what changes may be required. It will also assess the scientific and technical elements of an IPCC reporting framework for project-level activities. Executive Summary 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Review of relevance of the IPCC Guidelines for reporting activities under the Kyoto Protocol (implications of proposed definitions discussed in this Special Report; country case studies) 7.2 Implications for potential additions and modifications to the IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guidelines for different activities under the Kyoto Protocol (elements for carbon stock accounting; periodicity of input data and implications for assessing annual fluxes; alternative methods and approaches to the Revised Guidelines; potential additions and modifications to IPCC Modules for accounting) 7.4 Scientific and technical reporting framework for project-level activities for greenhouse gases (elements for reporting project-level activities; reporting monitoring and verification procedures; issues related to consistency and comparability with national inventories; integration of project with national inventories) 7.5 Supplementary information for reporting under the 1996 IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guidelines (identify major gaps in knowledge)