date: Wed Apr 15 14:29:03 2009 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Fwd: Re: contribution to RealClimate.org to: Thomas Crowley Tom, To my eye the divergence starts earlier than 97/98. It seems to be the late 1980s. Maybe plot the difference series between these two. Need to place in a context and the difference series may do this. Knowing how the series is put together always makes me suspicious - and knowing what's going on with the SSTs, doubly suspicious. Cheers Phil At 17:45 14/04/2009, you wrote: Quoting P.Jones@uea.ac.uk: Phil, I will do that, but there seem to be two problems: 1) why would it all happen in 1997-98? its hard to believe that many new drifters were deployed, starting just that year. 2) there are examples of abrupt shifts in other parts of the time series - why should this be especially suspect? thanks for any additional help on this, tom Tom, The issue Ray alludes to is that in addition to the issue of many more drifters providing measurements over the last 5-10 years, the measurements are coming in from places where we didn't have much ship data in the past. For much of the SH between 40 and 60S the normals are mostly made up as there is very little ship data there. Whatever causes the divergence in your plot it is down to the ocean. You could try doing an additional plot. Download from the CRU web site the series for SH land. It doesn't matter if is from CRUTEM3 or CRUTEM3v (the former would be better). If that still has the divergence, then it is the oceans causing the problem. What you're seeing is too rapid to be real. Cheers Phil Phil, do you have any comments with respect to either my note sent yesterday to RealClimate.org, or Ray's query below? just want to make sure I touch the appropriate bases before I send it back to RCO. thanks in advance for any help, with regards, tom ----- Forwarded message from rbradley@geo.umass.edu ----- Date: Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:17:18 -0400 From: "raymond s. bradley" Reply-To: "raymond s. bradley" Subject: Re: contribution to RealClimate.org To: Thomas Crowley Cc: mann@psu.edu Hi Tom, The Easterling & Wehner preprint is attached. It would be good if you could expand your comment to include some reflections on this. One cautionary note--talking to Phil Jones last week, he mentioned that the recent addition of SH buoy data has added data from areas of the globe hitherto undersampled; it may have "suppressed" the ocean area warming relative to land. You might contact Phil to see if the rapid warming in land, but not ocean, has anything to do with that. I'm always a bit nervous about the ever-changing database of obserevational records, particularly with the expansion of the network using automated instruments. It may turn out not to be a relevant factor to your post, but something to ponder, nevertheless... Ray At 11:48 AM 4/13/2009, you wrote: Dear Mike and Ray, attached is a contribution to your website about trends in global temperatures. I realize that you often do not have outsiders comment, but as I explain in my note, the results I show are quite striking and illustrated in a different way than some (many?) may have seen. Since the figure illustrates something of wide interest, I hope you can make an exception to your normal rules. With regards, Tom -- The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in Scotland, with registration number SC005336. ----- End forwarded message ----- -- The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in Scotland, with registration number SC005336. -- The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in Scotland, with registration number SC005336. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------