date: Tue Feb 19 09:24:25 2008 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: On behalf of Scott Armstrong to: "O'Neill Saffron Miss \(ENV\)" Saffron, These are all skeptics, but worth at least looking at. Scott Armstrong is a well-known statistician, but he thinks he's the Authority on all things to do with forecasting and prediction. Cheers Phil DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=domainkey-signature:received:received:message-id:date:from:sender:to:subject:mime-vers ion:content-type:x-google-sender-auth; bh=Yv+w+5wMVeHGLk8AM0pPAKP0AMXOoBwFh8ba8lsy/fw=; b=bCcC0xAVjYvXqPqHYnNRUQBIu63aOf7HWCxnsajMe69w8UJopWywAZYkJeiUuWGtwNCoh7ct7ftWGFZ/FG9znD XBnRheuZ7ShLIu07ZOe4PZqZDU0NruwVD55n4nzYD9LFFEKAB0UGifPFQkoq+V+nNOoFnSNOHj63f5/jHn5zU= DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=message-id:date:from:sender:to:subject:mime-version:content-type:x-google-sender-auth; b=bzI0ZliaH0IpHXwz5veXDj8kDbQAIwGz6CbE/XEZ9WeKkh6U7/WaznY8vWQC1BiJA3SWg73mVKzSED3SMb4/6+ hJXxW3qaalonnVaTnCmIy9z+x+mcs9RHXfnTkCDdK2UF6HQYVdKGCVwZ4mqsAmiAfVHPK0XQegg7Hlo87eoj4= Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2008 20:40:34 -0500 From: "Janice Dow" Sender: janicedow@gmail.com To: dowj@sas.upenn.edu Subject: On behalf of Scott Armstrong X-Google-Sender-Auth: 8ca80dee03740cdb X-UEA-Spam-Score: -2.3 X-UEA-Spam-Level: -- X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO Are Polar Bears in danger? Senate testimony by Scott Armstrong, Jan. 30, 2008 Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green and Willie Soon (a physical scientist who has done much research on climate change) audited the forecasting methods used to support the government's strategy to list polar bears as an endangered species. Conclusion? The forecasts of polar bear populations were not derived from scientific forecasting procedures. As Armstrong stated: "On average, the authors [of the government reports] properly applied only 12% of relevant [scientific forecasting] principles. In what occupations would work that follows 12% of proper procedures be considered acceptable? Details, including a video of Armstrongs's six-minute presentation to the U. S. Senate Hearing on polar bears, and the written transcript of the interesting Q&A between Boxer and Armstrong are available at [1]http://theclimatebet.com The most recent version of our our paper, available at [2]http://publicpolicyforecasting.com has been submitted for publication, but we are still seeking peer review. Might you be able to review the paper? Thanks, Scott Armstrong *This email sent on behalf of Scott Armstrong by his research assistant Janice Dow. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------