date: Tue Jan 11 16:06:32 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Messages re NA Salinity to: trenbert@ucar.edu Kevin, Just found a couple of messages - one of which said put it in 3.9, so sorry about that. Will check in 3.3 now. I've redone CQ8. It is longer, but expands on some results you put in. I've rewritten the preamble of 3 paras though as I felt it needed this. This can be cut though. I've left one of the highlighted bits there for views. I suspect both CQs will get extensively rewritten when all CQs are brought together. Fixed Matilde's point. A change need to go in twice. Also found your email from Brian with a figure for TRMM. Should this go in? I've put in Adler's paragraph and his second figure (a map of trend). Highlighted that this needs checking with Dave's plots in 3.3. Cheers Phil Cheers Phil Kevin, Good idea re 3.9. I'll put it there. There is still a couple of days for the diagrams. They have placeholders in the text, but won't have any discussion of them - unless they come tonight or tomorrow. Byron say they will come tonight or tomorrow, so should be OK. Just got rid of all the US Spellings - very carefully ! Almost got caught by Colorado ! Cheers Phil At 15:06 11/01/2005, you wrote: Phil Not sure what you did with the material I sent. It was in the form of a paragraph that could be inserted in 3.9 perhaps as a cross cutting issue with other chapters. Sounds like good progress on the references. Not too happy about how long the figs are taking and the fact we haven't seen them. I very gently chided Dave Easterling who is here at the mtg, so no oversight back at the NCDC. Don't hesitate to make demands. Had brief discussion with Dave P and Chris F. Session on MSU yesterday with Fu giving his paper saying MSU 2LT is physically impossible. Did not go down well with John. His main comeback was how does his stuff agree with sondes. That seems to be main issue. I have not yet read all the Had At paper. Would prefer that sampling issues better dealt with (12 per month not so good). Also spatial sampling: in tropics some areas not covered at all: est Pacific etc. Nice Manabe symposium yesterday Kevin On Tue, 11 Jan 2005, Phil Jones wrote: > > Kevin, > Received this from you on Jan 7. Roxana has resent it on Jan 10. > Should I put in the para somewhere? > > I am almost done with the whole thing. I spent all the weekend > going through the text and adding in little bits and generally tidying > up. Albert went through a text version and the refs and checked > everything. I've incorporated all this. There were about 20 refs > not there - I've reduced this by 3 from web searching. 200 citations > in the text got corrected - mainly a,b,c's and years incorrect. I think > Albert was on this most of the weekend. > > I've just spent 3 hours on completing references from AGU, AMS > web sites and the final issue of 2004 for IJC which came. For all > these journals I've now changed 2004 to 2005 for papers not yet out > as all issues are finished. Just need to go through and change 2004 > to 2005 in the text. Some of the 200 (above) included this. The > only wrong ones (potentially) are journals I can't access on the web. > If Climate Dynamics would just put its last issue out for 2004 that > would get another 3. > > Also highlighted some inconsistencies, that I've no time > to follow. These relate to Chinese and Russian journal numbering. They > may be OK, they just look odd. > > Byron emailed last night, so agreed on final format for precip maps. > Hopefully they will all come tonight ! > > Hope meeting going well. > > Cheers > Phil > > > At 08:00 11/01/2005, roxana@ciberplai.net wrote: > >Kevin, Phil > >Thanks for the message. I agree with Kevin about the issue of changes in > >precip, fresh water fluxes and North Atlantic salinity. > >Cheers, > >Roxana. > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Kevin Trenberth > > To: roxana bojariu > > Cc: Phil Jones ; Gulev Sergey > > Sent: Friday, January 07, 2005 5:36 PM > > Subject: Re: Latest draft of our chapter > > > > > > Roxana, Phil > > > > I looked over the paper you so kindly sent. I found it > > > >quite convincing and we ought to include it somewhere. I was > > > >a bit disapointed in the paper because it was so narrowly > > > >focused on the north Atlantic, without the surrounding land > > > >or the souther North Atlantic. So it was oriented toward the > > > >increase in P-E but it is nearly all P. The context is that > > > >P also increased in adjacent land areas I believe. But where > > > >did the moisture come from? The thought is that it came from > > > >the subtropics and that is why salinity is increasing there, > > > >but the paper did not deal with that. Also it did not deal > > > >enough with run off (if P is increasing over land, that must > > > >also be a factor), and glacier melt. Something did not look > > > >right to me about the NAO series. > > > > The problem with the Josey contribution is that is was > > > >under sfc fluxes but it dealt with P mostly and not the > > > >surface fluxes. The changes in the North Atlantic salinity > > > >would make a great box, but it is a cross cutting issue that > > > >involves the ocean and the ice sections. > > > > I have followed this quite a lot and here is a paragraph > > > >from a recent article of mine: > > > > > > Recently a number of studies have highlighted the changes > > > >going on within the ocean in terms of both energy and > > > >salinity. Changes in the freshwater balance of the Atlantic > > > >Ocean over the past four decades have been revealed by > > > >Dickson et al. (2002) and Curry et al. (2003). They find a > > > >freshening in the North Atlantic and also south of 25°S, > > > >while salinity has increased in the tropics and subtropics, > > > >especially in the upper 500 m. The implication is that > > > >there have been substantial increases in moisture transport > > > >by the atmosphere from the subtropics to higher latitudes, > > > >perhaps in association with changes in atmospheric > > > >circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). > > > >Antonov et al. (2002) suggest that there is a secular > > > >decrease in overall ocean salinity, raising questions about > > > >the role of melting glaciers. Wadhams and Munk (2004) have > > > >assessed this aspect in the context of the overall sea level > > > >rise and estimated sea ice melt, suggesting that the 20th > > > >century eustatic rise (from added mass) is only 0.6 mm/yr. > > > > > > > > Antonov, J. I., S. Levitus, and T. P. Boyer, 2002: Steric > > > >sea level variations during 1957-1994: Importance of > > > >salinity. J. Geophys. Res., 107 (C12), 8013, > > > >doi:10.1029/2001JC000964. > > > > Curry, R., B. Dickson, and I. Yashayaev, 2003: A change in > > > >the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past > > > >four decades. Nature, 426, 826-829. > > > > > > Dickson B., I. Yashayaev, J. Meincke, B. Turrell, S. Dye > > > >and J. Holtfort, 2002: Rapid freshening of the deep North > > > >Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades. Nature, 416, > > > >832-837. > > > > > > > > Wadhams, P, and W. Munk, 2004: Ocean freshening, sea level > > > >rising, sea ice melting. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L11311, > > > >doi:10.1029/2004GL020039 > > > > > > > > Now we could add a sentence to say: > > Further, exploration of changes in surface fresh water flux > > > >over the North Atlantic by Josey and Marsh (2005) provide > > > >strong evidence that increases in precipitation from 1960-74 > > > >to 1975-1989 are the main factor. > > > > But then this issue is also related to sea level: if > > > >glacier melt is a factor then sea level goes up; if > > > >evaporation is the main factor it does not, so this is a > > > >constraint. > > > > Phil, can we get this in in some way, perhaps as a cross > > > >cutting issue in 3.9? Also make sure that the P changes are > > > >mentioned in section 3.3. I think we should also highlight > > > >it for further development with other chapters, perhaps as a > > > >Box. We may want to make Roxana a key person on looking > > > >after this topic for our chapter and to interact with > > > >chapters 4 and 5 on this topic. I am listed as the cross cut > > > >person with chapter 5 and Sergey is their person, so I'll cc > > > >Surgey; I can help but I suspect I won't have time to > > > >devote to it . > > > > Kevin > > > > > > roxana bojariu wrote: > > > > Kevin writes: > > >I don't know that reference??? Ah I see below it is not > > > >published yet. > > >Do you have a pdf? > > > > Yes, please find enclosed it. Now is in press. > > > > Josey, S. A. and R. Marsh, 2005: Surface Freshwater Flux > > > >Variability and Recent Freshening of the North Atlantic in > > > >the Eastern Subpolar Gyre,Journal of Geophysical Research,in > > > >press. > > > > >Josey works with sfc fluxes, not reanalyses. If there is > > > >P from > > >reanalyses used then it is worthless, in my view. > > > > Yes, but he compared them with rain gauge measurements > > > >from land stations bordering the ocean area in which P and > > > >P-E show the trend. > > > > >Kumar is not observations and model precip is not > > > >reliable enough to > > >trust in my view. That is what it says in the ocean > > > >precip section. I > > >am aware of the salinity changes of Dickson, and Curry > > > >et al, but that > > >should be in ocean chapter. This is something we need to > > > >address in > > >next version, but not sure we can do it this time > > > >around. > > > > I think you are right. > > > > > > > > Cheers, > > Roxana. > > > > > > > >-- > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > --------------- Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 ******************************* Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------