date: Thu Sep 25 09:53:04 2008 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: EU 2009 call and tree rings to: John Grace John sorry about missing question - yes many tree-ring people in the past have "seen" various cycles in tree-ring records and often attributed them to solar forcing . Virtually all of the work lacks rigour in terms of proper testing of he phase of associations or realistic tests of the significance. A decade or so back there was a virtual industry in Russia - driven largely by the political need for palaeo work to demonstrate prognostic value. I am posting a brief review article I wrote some years ago that has a few relevant references. There have been one or two papers since from Russian workers, but again not convincing to my mind. Keith At 08:26 25/09/2008, you wrote: Dear Keith I have the feeling that tree-rings have a really important role in understanding inter-annual variability and response to extreme events. I've just been looking at some data from Andre Granier - he's a physiologist and one of the things he's been doing is measuring tree increments over a few years. Of course there was a big drought France in 2003. The increment was reduced by a bit in 2003 but much more in 2004. Now it's back to normal. I think analysis of the sort of data that dendrochronologists have would help us understand these responses, as one has so many years of record. Did you see the second part of my message- about 11 year cycles? John Keith Briffa wrote: Thanks for the response John. I fully understand the points you make. I was only considering the possibility of a small role for here in any project looking at the role of forests past and future in Europe - I thought that the specific focus on inter-annual to decadal time scales in the call might imply a possibility that tree-rings , and their potential for validating tree process models , and links to larger scale (Dynamic vegetation and GCM) models might represent a useful angle for research. I would still be grateful if you could bare this in mind when participating in the meeting you describe. Very best wishes Keith At 11:09 24/09/2008, you wrote: Dear Keith Next week I'm at the Carboeurope annual meeting, and there is a meeting of the Exec committee when we'll discuss tactics. There is of course the view that we need a 'son of carboeurope' but the funding available is now much less than we have at present. There will be a significant push to develop the atmospheric measurements of GHGs further. Forests might get squeezed out. Among those who support the tree ring stuff is Schultze, but he's retiring now. However, Janssens, Nabuurs, Loustau, Granier, Magnani and others will be at the meeting. I think the model/tree ring stuff is important and could make an excellent proposal, but I'm not sure if it would be competitive with tall towers/aircraft. Can I contact you after this meeting - I'll know how the land lies then. I've been thinking of contacting you about another matter. Do dendrochronologists find a 11- year cycle in tree ring indices? Best wishes John Keith Briffa wrote: John are you planning a submission under 6.1.1.3 (The Global carbon cycle- greenhouse gas budgets) in 2009 call on the Environment (theme 6)? European Commission C(2008) 4598 of 28th August 2008) I genuinely believe that a combined process model/ empirical tree-ring approach could contribute much in mid to high latitudes given the annual to decadal focus here. We would be very willing to join a joint submission. What do you think? best wishes Keith -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Professor John Grace Professor of Environmental Biology School of GeoSciences Crew Building University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3JN phone + 44 (0)131 650 5400 fax + 44 (0)131 662 0478 email jgrace@ed.ac.uk The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in Scotland, with registration number SC005336. -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Professor John Grace Professor of Environmental Biology School of GeoSciences Crew Building University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3JN phone + 44 (0)131 650 5400 fax + 44 (0)131 662 0478 email jgrace@ed.ac.uk The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in Scotland, with registration number SC005336. -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/