date: Mon, 04 Oct 1999 19:50:20 +0100 from: Frank Oldfield subject: PAGES Synthesis to: coleje@spot.colorado.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, laurent.labeyrie@cfr.cnrs-gif.fr, jto@U.Arizona.EDU, pedersen@eos.ubc.ca, rbradley@climate1.geo.umass.edu, domraynaud@glaciog.grenet.fr, markgraf@spot.colorado.edu, thomas.stocker@phil.unibe.ch, eaboyle@MIT.EDU, keith.alverson@pages.unibe.ch, messerli@giub.unibe.ch, bmesserli@bluewin.ch, Brian.Huntley@durham.ac.uk, yugo@ees.hokudai.ac.jp, rfrancois@whoi.edu, Louis.Francois@cict.fr, whitlock@oregon.uoregon.edu, blunier@climate.unibe.ch, jerome@glaciog.grenet.fr Dear Colleagues, I am sending this message (see attachment in Word and RTF, as well as unformatted text below) to all the people we hope will be able to help with PAGES Synthesis by attending the 'writing workshop', 21 - 26 January, 2000. Please let me know as soon as possible whether or not you are able to come - and if so, when you plan to arrive in and depart from Bern. On behalf of the PAGES Scientific Steering Committee I urge you to attend and to help us if at all possible. With kind regards, Frank Oldfield ------------------------ PAGES Synthesis - Writing week 21 - 26, Jan.2000 Dear colleagues, Synthesis loomsŠ. the writing week approachesŠ.no more biological displacement Š..time for ACTION and that means - prepare to write! Here are some outline ideas for our Synthesis efforts from now till the end of the 'writing week' January 21 - 26, 2000. By the end of that week we need to have: 1. at least the a nucleus of text, figures and references for every chapter. The text may be in note form, as headings with outlines of content under each, or as full first draft. The figures can be in any form at that stage, but need to be cross-referenced with whatever text is produced. The references need not be in final form (but the nearer the better). 2. A clear and realistic set of deadlines,a meeting schedule, agreed tasks ascribed to each participant and procedures for circulating, revising and reviewing drafts. In order to reach the goals outlined, we shall need the following in advance of the meeting: 1. A compilation of key reference texts and figures (IPO to continue doing this over the next 2 months; please send additional suggestions). 2. ~1-page of theme headings for each of Chapters 2 - 6 as currently envisioned so that each author can see how his/her contribution links to/overlaps with others. This should also allow us to identify gaps. These outlines are needed not later than the end of November so that EXCOMM can review them at AGU and as little time as possible is wasted at the meeting informing each other of what is proposed. (Lead authors as listed - the first named for each Chapter - to take responsibility for this). The meeting will begin with short introductions by Will Steffen (who can attend for the first day, Tom Pedersen and F.O.). Presentations will follow on each chapter, These should focus on the following common questions: 1. What major statements of significance can we make with reasonable certainty or high probability in our present state of knowledge and how can they be sustained succinctly and illustrated attractively? 2. How may they best be expressed and illustrated in order to capture the attention of policy makers, funding agencies, interested non-specialist colleagues (eg. In other IGBP projects), educators and potentially motivated students? 3. Which of these statements may be of special significance in human terms and how can their importance best be conveyed? 4. Where are the areas of critical uncertainty, how well is current research addressing them and how best may they be defined and addressed by future researchers? 5. What are the most stimulating or challenging lines of speculation/hypothesis testing to which the research leads? 6. What will the future research agenda look like and what will it required in terms of tools, personnel and resources? I hope that by taking this kind of approach, it will be possible to avoid making the Synthesis into a review or a chore. Meeting this challenge well is one of the the best guarantees of a healthy future for PAGES. If we aim for a maximum of 250 pages, of which 35 are likely to be preface, contents, references etc., that gives the equivalent of ca. 30 pages per chapter. Using the good Dr Bradley's recent book as a rough guide and making allowance for the extent to which the Synthesis book is likely to be visually oriented, around 12 of these are likely to be figures and tables. The remaining 18 pages of tex t equates with ca. 8k words. Please bring your lap-tops: if necessary , with converters to Swiss socket outlets - Niklaus will advise on this. Please let us know as soon as possible what your travel plans are as far as Bern. We'll sort out the rest as soon as we know where you will be and when. PAGES Synthesis 1999/2000 THEME: "What is the significance of the paleo-record for understanding the future?" Two synthesis products, a book and a glossy brochure, will be produced. The anticipated constituency for the book is the scientific global change community and high-level educators, while the brochure will be written for non-governmental and governmental organizations, public school educators, and the environmentally concerned public. The book will be structured as follows (authors marked * have agreed to contribute; the others have or are being invited): Chapter 1, Introduction: The Human Rationale for Past Global Change Research Frank Oldfield*, lead author. The "Results" section: 5 chapters, each structured around a central question and each of ~15,000 words plus figures. Each will summarize the existing information: Chapter 2: What has been the history of trace gases and aerosols? Dominque Raynaud*, lead author, with Yugo Ono* and Jerome Chapellaz or M. Blunier. Chapter 3: What has been the history of atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric dynamics? Thomas Stocker*, Laurent Labeyrie* and Julia Cole*, lead authors Chapter 4: What has been the history of the carbon and other biogeochemical cycles? Ed Boyle*, lead author, with Roger Francois*, Danny Sigman and David Archer Chapter 5: What have been the roles and responses of vegetation in the climate system? Jonathan Overpeck* and Brian Huntley, lead authors Chapter 6 (a transition chapter to the Discussion section) : How has the Earth system changed during the last 1,000 years? Ray Bradley* and Keith Briffa*, lead authors Chapter 7+: Cross-cutting synthesis/discussion section, title(s) to be determined. Topics to be considered include: The potential for surprises Implications for future change and sustainability of ecosystems and resources Modelling the future - lessons from paleoclimatic reconstructions PAGES Synthesis Schedule (as of Shonan, May, 1999) 1999 May. Contact invitees. ACTION: TFP TO PREPARE INVITATION LETTER. IPO TO SEND OUT INVITATIONS WITH OUTLINE OF THE SYNTHESIS BOOK. May. Contact PAGES task/activity leaders by email/fax requesting a short list of key references and figures in response to the question, "What are your most significant findings?" Deadline for contributions: June 15. ACTION: IPO TO SEND OUT REQUESTS June 1-15. Members of SSC to follow up personally by telephone if there has been no response. ACTION: IPO TO PREPARE AND DISTRIBUTE BY EMAIL THE LIST OF CONTACTEES AND CONTACTORS. July. Compendium of key references to be prepared by Keith Alverson and sent to all lead and contributing authors. ACTION: IPO September - November. Preliminary small group meetings as required by lead authors of each "Results" chapter. ACTION: LEAD AUTHORS TO DECIDE BY SEPTEMBER 1 ON NEED FOR MEETING(S) AND TO ORGANIZE DATES, VENUES. 2000 January or February. FIRST "RESULTS" WRITING SESSION. To be held in Switzerland, either during the period Jan. 21-26 or in the week before PAGES SSC Meeting in Pune, India. March. Distribute widely the "Results" draft (Chapters 1-6, inclusive). All "synthesis/discussion" section writers to receive a copy of the draft. Solicit/collate comments from all recipients by May 31. June. SECOND SESSION TO WRITE THE DISCUSSION/SYNTHESIS. Location to be determined (Switzerland?). July. Start preparation of Brochure/Executive Summary ACTION: IPO TO TAKE THE LEAD. July. Completion of final draft of book, distribute for comment with deadline of September 30. October/November. Revision of final draft to produce finished product for submission to IGBP/Publishers by Nov. 30. 2001 January. Executive summary/brochure to be completed by Jan. 31. Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Synthstrat'2000-0ct3.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Synthstrat'2000-0ct3RTF.doc" ____________________________________________ Frank Oldfield Executive Director PAGES IPO Barenplatz 2 CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland e-mail: frank.oldfield@pages.unibe.ch Phone: +41 31 312 3133; Fax: +41 31 312 3168 http://www.pages.unibe.ch/pages.html