date: Mon, 29 Sep 2008 20:39:05 -0600 from: Eugene Wahl subject: Request Re: simple remake of IPCC Figure to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Hi Tim: I'm working with David Anderson, my supervisor here at NOAA-Paleo, and others higher up in NOAA on paleoclimate information to go into the US Government's official overview document on climate change research. It is called the "Climate Change Science Plan Unified Synthesis Product", and is like a kind-of US version of the IPCC SPM--Working Group 1. The goal is to have this ready for the new government administration as early next year as possible. We are trying to decide concerning a figure to summarize the high-resolution NH paleo-climate record for the past 1000 years -- the last version of the document had MBH 99 superposed with the CO2 recored for the same time period. One thought that came down to Dave and myself from others was to use the new Mann et al, 2008, Figure 3 over the past millennium or some part of it. Dave and I think the IPCC WG1 Ch. 6 Figure 6:10c is a better representation of the last millennium from a reconstruction standpoint, especially representing the uncertainties involved. CO2 would just be left out. [We also considered IPCC WG1 Ch. 6 Figure 14d as even better, as it shows the EMICs mostly follow the middle range of the reconstructions' overlap, except that those that don't have anthropogenic forcing deviate more and more cooler after the mid-20th century. This coupling of the forcings-driven EMICs with the reconstruction record we find much more powerful than a superposition of one or more reconstructions and the CO2 curve. However, this suggestion will not go for the synthesis product, as it is considered too abstract for that situation.] Indeed, even Figure 6:10c as it is may be too complex for the target audience we want to reach with the synthesis product. In light of the foregoing, the question Dave and I would like to ask you is this: would it be feasible to ask you to recreate Figure 6:10c with just three lines? These three lines would be a heavy mid line of the temperature anomalies where the highest percentage of overlap occurs for each year, and the 10% and 90% overlap lines (all overlap percentages defined exactly as in the original IPCC graphics). It is our understanding that you created Figure 6:10c, which is where this request comes from. Alternatively, could you provide us with these three time series, or direct us how to extract them from the the IPCC c. 6 archives we keep here? We understand that you are quite busy and we want to minimize any impact on you in this request. Please let us know what you think. Here is hoping you are well, and that the weather there not yet to coolish. I get a weekly commentary on nature and spirituality written from near UEA ("Word from Wormingford" it is called), and often think of you-all there as I read it. Please also say hello to Phil and Keith when you see them. -- Peace, Gene Dr. Eugene R. Wahl Physical Scientist NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC/Paleoclimate Branch 325 Broadway Street Boulder, CO 80305 PHONE: 303-497-6297 FAX: 303-497-6513 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html