date: Mon, 15 Dec 2008 19:03:32 -0500 from: Mike MacCracken subject: Re: More on WW II Temperatures to: David Parker , Phil Jones Hi Phil and David--I am at the AGU meeting in San Francisco and was at a session on El Nino variability. I was struck by the data record shown for the Nino3 region, which shows no El Nino in 1944 (there apparently was a few year warm period centered around 1941), which I think the NH record shows as the very warmest year (or was it 1943) in that period until the 1980s. I recall hearing that the explanation for that very warm year was that there must have been a very strong El Nino that year--but that is clearly not the case in the record that the ENSO community is using. To get such a strong global/NH warming, it must be really warm somewhere--and it is not the Nino3 region nor over the US. I am wondering if there are year by year (even month by month) temperature anomaly maps available on the Web to look at somewhere, for must be a very interesting anomaly map. [My plotting capabilities are pretty limited.] Best, Mike MacCracken Thanks--just a thought. It would sure also be nice if the reanalyses could go back to before WWII in order to be able to look at the consistency/inconsistency of changes over land and ocean. Looking at the US land temperature record, there is not a warming during WWII comparable to what seems to be happening over the ocean--it just seems more than coincidental that virtually the only region and time where the IPCC detection-attribution analysis showed inconsistency was over the ocean during WWII. I have not seen the results of that analysis by ocean basin, but that would sure seem interesting to look at in order to perhaps focus an effort to look very closely at what was going on--unusual weather or an inhomogeneity in the data. Best, Mike On 12/15/08 5:00 AM, "David Parker" wrote: > Mike > > Phil Jones thanks you for your message - his university mail server > won't let him reply to comcast.net. > > I doubt whether the effect you mention would systematically bias SST and > marine air temperature but it could increase the uncertainties so I have > passed this idea on to John Kennedy here and to Liz Kent at > eck@noc.soton.ac.uk who is analysing the marine air temperatures. > > David > > > > > > > > > > > >>>> User-Agent: Microsoft-Entourage/12.14.0.081024 >>>> Date: Fri, 12 Dec 2008 21:47:11 -0500 >>>> Subject: On corrections during World War II >>>> From: Mike MacCracken >>>> To: Phil Jones >>>> Thread-Topic: On corrections during World War II >>>> Thread-Index: AclczRi/1V/mstaz/U+rMHL8VKEkaw== >>>> X-Canit-CHI2: 0.00 >>>> X-Bayes-Prob: 0.0001 (Score 0, tokens from: @@RPTN, f028) >>>> X-Spam-Score: 0.00 () [Hold at 5.00] SPF(pass,0) >>>> X-CanItPRO-Stream: UEA:f028 (inherits from > UEA:default,base:default) >>>> X-Canit-Stats-ID: 14397679 - 9dd86b7611c1 (trained as not-spam) >>>> X-Antispam-Training-Forget: >>>> X-Antispam-Training-Nonspam: >>>> X-Antispam-Training-Spam: >>>> X-Scanned-By: CanIt (www . roaringpenguin . com) on 139.222.131.184 >>>> >>>> Hi Phil--I was reviewing a paper and noting the differences >> during World War >>>> II and thought up another potential bias that I wonder if is >> being corrected >>>> for in the ship measurements. Namely, what I am wondering is if >> account was >>>> taken of the likely different loading (and so height of >> measurement--for air >>>> and water) of the ships as they went east and west. Basically, the > ships >>>> were heavy laden going east and virtually empty coming back, and so > there >>>> might well be a need to correct the observations accordingly. >>>> >>>> Just a thought--as the only place the models and observations >> seem different >>>> is over the ocean during WWII. >>>> >>>> Best, Mike >>> >>> Prof. Phil Jones >>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>> University of East Anglia >>> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>> NR4 7TJ >>> UK >>> >> > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> >>>