cc: arnell_Nigel,e.tompkins date: Fri Feb 27 17:32:34 2004 from: Mike Hulme subject: Re: climate change, THC and fuel poverty to: Dear Simon, This is an interesting project. It has relevance with at least 3 of our Tyndall Centre projects: - domestic tradeable quotas led by Kevin Anderson [1]http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme2/summary_t3_22.shtml - the 40% house led by Brenda Boardman [2]http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme2/summary_t2_23.shtml - vulnerability to rapid climate change led by Nigel Arnell at Southampton. I do indeed have some views on what you are proposing, most notably rather worried by the implicit weight of 0.33 you give to cooling scenarios! This I do not believe is justified. I would like to discuss some of these issues with you. I suggest you try phoning me next Friday - 5th March. If it is OK with you I will forward this information to my colleagues running the vulnerability project. This may have some relevance for them. Regards, Mike At 16:06 23/02/2004 +0000, you wrote: Dear Professor Hulme I'm starting work on a new ESRC project on climate change and fuel poverty. The idea is to look at what might happen to fuel poverty in 2030 with various scenarios for climate change, energy efficiency of buildings, price of energy and development of incomes. I've attached the project description which will give you more information about it. At the start of the project, I'm consulting a range of experts. I identified you as an expert on rapid climate change. I'm looking for three scenarios for each of the four dimensions. For climate change, we want a 'likely' warming scenario, a rapid warming scenario and a scenario with cooling due to early collapse of the THC. I've read your Tyndall paper and I know you think it is very unlikely to happen soon. Just how unlikely? Do you think the back-of-the-envelope estimates I have suggested for the magnitude are reasonable or too optimistic or pessimistic? Can you point me in the direction of other literature on the subject? We're particularly interested in the seasonal pattern of warming or cooling because that influences the effect on enegy consumption, as well as the degree or warming or cooling. Who do you think would be other good people to talk about rapid climate change, particularly the effects of collapse of the THC? I'd like to talk about these issues with you, but I though I should ask you to think about it first. Can I call you to discuss it? When would be a good time over the next few days? best regards Simon -- Dr Simon Dresner Environment Group Policy Studies Institute 100 Park Village East London NW1 3SR tel: 020 7468 2265 fax: 020 7388 0914 The following section of this message contains a file attachment prepared for transmission using the Internet MIME message format. If you are using Pegasus Mail, or any other MIME-compliant system, you should be able to save it or view it from within your mailer. If you cannot, please ask your system administrator for assistance. ---- File information ----------- [3]File: Climate change and fuel poverty.doc Date: 16 May 2003, 15:35 Size: 65024 bytes. Type: Unknown