cc: t.m.melvin@uea.ac.uk date: Fri, 14 Mar 2008 11:33:22 +0000 from: Chris Turney subject: Re: Capturing long-term change using RCS to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, Thanks a lot for getting back to me. This sounds really hopeful. It would be great to crack this nut and marvellous to hear your working on it. I look forward to seeing the manuscript; do you mind if I share it with Richard Duncan and Jonathan Palmer who I am working closely with on this? It won't go any further. I'll also check it's alright to send the data to you to run through the program. I'm sure it won't be a problem but best check before hand. Hope things are going well. All the best, Chris **************************************************** Professor Chris Turney Author of [1]Ice, Mud and Blood: Lessons from Climates Past Popular science website: [2]www.christurney.com [3]Journal of Quaternary Science Asian and Australasian Regional Editor School of Geography, Archaeology and Earth Resources The University of Exeter Exeter Devon EX4 4RJ UK Times Higher University of the Year 2007-08 Home page: [4]www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml E-mail: [5]c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk Office Tel.: +44 (0)1392 263331 Fax.: +44 (0)1392 263342 **************************************************** Slartibartfast: Science has achieved some wonderful things of course, but I'd far rather be happy than right any day Arthur Dent: And are you? Slartibartfast: No. Thats where it all falls down of course. Arthur Dent: Pity. It sounded like quite a good lifestyle otherwise. The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams **************************************************** On 14 Mar 2008, at 11:22, Keith Briffa wrote: Chris, We have written a paper recently for the book being edited by Malcolm Hughes and Henry Diaz. Tom will forward a copy - though please treat this as confidential until the final version is agreed - thanks. It is true that the RCS can be biased by recent data (and produce a somewhat undefined trend in the overall chronology when this is produced from only living trees). Take a particular look at the first example of problem applications - near the end of the article (the "Briffa Bodge" bit!). How about looking at the data with the new RCS program we have? The software is not quite ready for general use but it will not be long. In the meantime Tom and I here could put your data through it to see what it looks like and you can have the software when he and I have agreed the final version of course. Best wishes, Keith and Tom. At 17:37 12/03/2008, you wrote: Hi Keith No worries at all. Must have used my gmail address. Thanks for looking at this. With best wishes, Chris **************************************************** Professor Chris Turney Author of <[6]http://www.palgrave.com/PRODUCTS/title.aspx?PID=280639>Ice, Mud and Blood: Lessons from Climates Past Popular science website: <[7]http://www.christurney.com>[8]www.christurney.com <[9]http://www.interscience.wiley.com/journal/jqs>Journal of Quaternary Science Asian and Australasian Regional Editor School of Geography, Archaeology and Earth Resources The University of Exeter Exeter Devon EX4 4RJ UK Times Higher University of the Year 2007-08 Home page: <[10]http://www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml>[11]www.sogae r.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml E-mail: <[12]mailto:c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk>[13]c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk Office Tel.: +44 (0)1392 263331 Fax.: +44 (0)1392 263342 **************************************************** Slartibartfast: Science has achieved some wonderful things of course, but I'd far rather be happy than right any day Arthur Dent: And are you? Slartibartfast: No. Thats where it all falls down of course. Arthur Dent: Pity. It sounded like quite a good lifestyle otherwise. The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams **************************************************** On 12 Mar 2008, at 16:10, Keith Briffa wrote: Chris have just found your email in my spam filter!! Will look at this and get back to you - sorry in rush to go to meeting Keith At 17:37 05/03/2008, you wrote: Dear Keith, Sorry to bother you but I was wondering whether I could pick your brain? I'm working with some friends in New Zealand, looking at quantifying past temperature change using pink pine. We have a robust dataset stretching back 550 years but using modern trees. Using the RCS method we are concerned we are losing the long-term temperature trend because of the bias introduced by the reliance on modern trees. We wondering whether you have any idea how best to overcome this issue? Any ideas would be fantastic. We've got a stunning dataset but feel frustrated we're missing out on a significant part of the story. Look forward to hearing your thoughts. Best wishes, Chris **************************************************** Professor Chris Turney Author of <<[14]http://www.palgrave.com/PRODUCTS/title.aspx?PID=280639>[15]http://www.palgrave.com /PRODUCTS/title.aspx?PID=280639>Ice, Mud and Blood: Lessons from Climates Past Popular science website: <<[16]http://www.christurney.com>[17]http://www.christurney.com>[18]www.christurney.com <<[19]http://www.interscience.wiley.com/journal/jqs>[20]http://www.interscience.wiley.co m/journal/jqs>Journal of Quaternary Science Asian and Australasian Regional Editor School of Geography, Archaeology and Earth Resources The University of Exeter Exeter Devon EX4 4RJ UK Times Higher University of the Year 2007-08 Home page: <<[21]http://www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml>[22]http://w ww.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml>[23]www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/ge ography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml E-mail: <<[24]mailto:c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk>[25]mailto:c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk><[26]mailto: c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk>[27]c.s.m.turney@exeter.ac.uk Office Tel.: +44 (0)1392 263331 Fax.: +44 (0)1392 263342 **************************************************** Slartibartfast: Science has achieved some wonderful things of course, but I'd far rather be happy than right any day Arthur Dent: And are you? Slartibartfast: No. Thats where it all falls down of course. Arthur Dent: Pity. It sounded like quite a good lifestyle otherwise. The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams **************************************************** -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 <[28]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/>[29]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people /briffa/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [30]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/