date: Tue, 15 Jul 2003 09:11:30 -0400 from: Edward Cook subject: Re: Fwd: Climatologists have used outdated time series analysis to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, Sounds good. By the way, in what sense is the Esper domain too small. I freely admit that it is best suited for the extra-tropics (ca. >30N) and tried to make that painfully obvious in the Esper et al. paper. So a critique of it based on domain size is self-serving, as if it was not pointed out in the Esper et al. paper. There is no way that you can say that the Mann et al. paleo-data domain to proper for a NH reconstruction either, particularly back before ca. 1600, since it is mostly based on >30N data as well. I would expect that issue to be mentioned as well in the Rutherford paper, but I am sure it was not for reasons that we both understand. I am afraid that the playing field is not fair in general. Cest le vie, re Italy. Cheers, Ed >Will get a copy of this and send. Of course I agree 100 per cent re >"optimal methods" (yuk) versus traditional (dare I say , even local >point ) regressions - in fact I am actually an author on a Scott >Rutherford (and others including Mann) paper that shows just this. >Incidentally , this also concludes that differences between Mann and >Esper NH curves are mostly a matter of spatial domain difference >(with yours too small of course ) . >Be careful not to oil yourself too much because the smell of >grilling fat will annoy the neighbours. Seems like the timing of >your Italy jaunt does not suit us by the way so I think you are safe >as regards a visit. >Best wishes >Keith >At 06:20 AM 7/15/03 -0400, you wrote: >>Hi Keith, >> >>Outdated as of June 28, 2003? Guilty as charged I guess. I'm not >>familiar with this paper nor the authors. Of course I am skeptical. >>In comparing my old fashioned least squares methods with advanced >>'optimal' methods like RegEM (that Mike is enamored with) and >>hierarchical Bayes, there is fuck-all difference in the results. >>Connie Woodhouse's results with neural networks doesn't show much >>either over linear regression. If you are able to get a pdf, please >>email it to me. I am not in position to get it now. Am at the beach. >> >>Cheers, >> >>Ed >> >>>>Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2003 17:01:56 +0100 (BST) >>>>From: Timo Hameranta >>>>Subject: Climatologists have used outdated time series analysis >>>>methods (!?) >>>>To: climatesceptics@yahoogroups.com, jto@u.arizona.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, >>>> legates@udel.edu, mann@virginia.edu, omichael@princeton.edu, >>>> p.jones@uea.ac.uk, rbradley@geo.umass.edu, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, >>>> wigley@meeker.ucar.edu, wsoon@cfa.harvard.edu >>>> >>>>Dear all, see the study >>>> >>>>Godtliebsen, F., L. R. Olsen, and J.-G. Winther, 2003. >>>>Recent developments in statistical time series >>>>analysis: Examples of use in climate research, >>>>Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(12), 1654, >>>>doi:10.1029/2003GL017229, June 28, 2003. >>>> >>>>Abstract >>>>In this paper we present some recently developed time >>>>series analysis methods. Further, we apply these >>>>methods to a suite of climatological and synthetic >>>>time series. We show what information (or statistical >>>>significance) that can be drawn from such time series >>>>and which otherwise, i.e. by simpler methods, would be >>>>difficult to extract. We conclude by recommending the >>>>use of advanced statistical time series analysis for a >>>>wide range of applications connected to studies of >>>>climate variability and climate change. >>>>...... >>>> >>>>Well ..... >>>> >>>>Timo Hämeranta >>>>Moderator, Climatesceptics >>>> >>>> >>>>__________________________________________________ >>>>Yahoo! Plus - For a better Internet experience >>>>http://uk.promotions.yahoo.com/yplus/yoffer.html >>> >>>-- >>>Professor Keith Briffa, >>>Climatic Research Unit >>>University of East Anglia >>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>> >>>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>> >>>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >> >> >>-- >>================================== >>Dr. Edward R. Cook >>Doherty Senior Scholar and >>Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory >>Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory >>Palisades, New York 10964 USA >>Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu >>Phone: 845-365-8618 >>Fax: 845-365-8152 >>================================== > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ==================================