date: Thu Oct 22 15:26:14 2009 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: 2009 preliminary data on average global temperature deviations to: Ricardo Fernandez OK Phil At 14:50 22/10/2009, you wrote: Thanks Phil, Perhaps you can send a copy of your paper when published? Cheers Ricardo ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 22 October 2009 15:02 To: Ricardo Fernandez Subject: RE: 2009 preliminary data on average global temperature deviations Ricardo, The stations in the Arctic are much the same in the CRU, GISS and NCDC analyses. Differences in gridding are a factor as well, but the infilling that NCDC (NOAA) do is beginning to have an effect in the Arctic. In this region, we don't do any infilling, so if a box has no data then it stays missing. Infilling gives you more boxes, which generally have higher T anomalies than the average of the rest of the hemisphere, so leads to the NCDC/NOAA analysis appearing warmer. The way we calculate the globe is an important factor. We use for the globe the average of the two hemispheres. NCDC and GISS calculate as one domain. Even with infilling NCDC still has some gaps in the SH, so this biases the globe to the NH. I'm involved in a paper coming out soon looking at ERA-INTERIM. This is the newest Reanalysis that covers the period from 1989-2008. If you sample this where CRU has data over land, the agreement is amazingly good. As ERA-INTERIM is complete, you can sample all NH and SH areas where there is land. This shows slightly more warmer than CRU, mainly for the NH. When these extra areas are mapped it is mostly coming from the Arctic and Siberia. You are right that the lower slope for GISS is due to their large boxes. Their numbers look larger , as most people forget that their base period is 1951-80. Cheers Phil At 12:32 22/10/2009, Ricardo Fernandez wrote: Hello Phil, I read an article in Le Monde yesterday where according to Stefan Rahmstof (university of Postdam) the main difference between the warming observed in GISS and Hadley is that you do not cover the Artic. I was surprised by this. You publish documentation about the network of stations used in the calculation of (land) surface temperature [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/landstations/ and there are several stations above 66 degrees N. Am I missing something? I also thought the differences between CRU, GISS, but also NOAA, were mainly due to methods and gridding techniques: e.g. you calculate the global anomaly by averaging the two hemispheres, thus giving more weight (i.e. than if you averaged all grids) to the poorly covered and colder Southern Hemisphere. It was also my understanding that over the long run there is a lower slope coefficient for GISS because their method provides estimates for empty grid boxes when at least one station falls within a 1200 Km radius of an unsampled box, which is common e.g. in Antarctica, where warming has been lower than in other areas since the 1970s. You do not provide estimates for unsampled grids. Ricardo ________________________________________ Ricardo Fernandez Analyst Air and Climate Change Mitigation European Environment Agency Kongens Nytorv 6 1050 Copenhagen K Denmark [3]ricardo.fernandez@eea.europa.eu ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [ [4]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 14 October 2009 14:52 To: Ricardo Fernandez; Barbara.BACIGALUPI@ec.europa.eu Cc: André Jol; a.ogden@uea.ac.uk Subject: RE: 2009 preliminary data on average global temperature deviations Ricardo, Thanks! Phil At 13:35 14/10/2009, Ricardo Fernandez wrote: Dear Barbara, Further to Phils email, I attach the chart based on the latest HadCRU3 data - as in previous years. The estimate of the mean anomaly for 2009 is based on the available 8 months (January-August). The (smoothed) global mean temperature for 2009 would then be 0.75 Celsius (rounded i.e. 0.8) above pre-industrial levels (using 10-year moving averages and relative to the period 1850-1899). I can send 3 more updates (including September, October and November) before the December anomaly is available from CRUs website. I should be able to send you the final chart sometime in January. Ricardo ________________________________________ Ricardo Fernandez Analyst Air and Climate Change Mitigation European Environment Agency Kongens Nytorv 6 1050 Copenhagen K Denmark Tel: +45 3336 7270 / +45 23646514 (mobile) Fax: +45 3336 7151 [5]ricardo.fernandez@eea.europa.eu ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [ [6]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 14 October 2009 14:22 To: Barbara.BACIGALUPI@ec.europa.eu; Ricardo Fernandez Cc: André Jol; a.ogden@uea.ac.uk Subject: Re: 2009 preliminary data on average global temperature deviations Barbara and Ricardo, The current value is +0.43 deg C above the 1961-90 level. This is for 2009 including August. This would make 2009 the 7th warmest year behind in order 1998, 2005, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006. The El Nino event is making the second half of the year warmer though, so it may yet pass 2004 and 2006 and possibly 2003. It just depends.... Only 1998 and 2005 stand out from the rest. Cheers Phil At 13:31 08/10/2009, Barbara.BACIGALUPI@ec.europa.eu wrote: Dear Ricardo and Phil, We are currently working on the next (2009) version of the Environment Policy Review, and therefore updating all information. Please find the EPR 2008 available on: [7]http://ec.europa.eu/environment/policyreview.htm Please look at indicator 1.1 of the annex. Do you have (preliminary) 2009 data for global temperature? I could not find any information or press release available on: [8]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ Thank you. Kind regards, Barbara Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------