date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 17:12:19 -0700 from: Jerry Meehl subject: update on IPCC model analyses to: ipcc_subprojects@jetta.llnl.gov, cmsaw@joss.ucar.edu, mlatif@ifm.uni-kiel.de, Ron Stouffer , covey1@llnl.gov, meehl@ucar.edu, john.f.mitchell@metoffice.com, gates5@llnl.gov, avillwock@ifm.uni-kiel.de, B.McAvaney@bom.gov.au, Satyan_V@gateway.wmo.ch, bader2@llnl.gov, Jim Hurrell , Dave Gutzler , Lisa Goddard , David Legler Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by smtp-1.llnl.gov id j2J0DQI9014338 March 18, 2005 (we apologize if some of you receive this message more than once since we are sending it to several email alias lists; we include the message text below, as well as in an msword attachment) Dear IPCC analysts, Thank you to all who attended the very successful workshop in Honolulu held March 1-4, and to all those who have been analyzing the IPCC AR4 model output who were not able to attend. It was clear from the workshop that the models are being analyzed over a wide range of topics and that some interesting results are already emerging. The multi-model analyses are going to be major contributors to the success of the AR4. The purpose of this email is to let you know how to feed the results of your analyses into the AR4 drafting process For those who were not able to come to the workshop, I would like to confirm here the timescales on which material is required. To fit with the IPCC review process, papers will need to be submitted to peer-reviewed journals and available to IPCC lead authors by 1 MAY 2005, and accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal by approximately 1 DEC 2005. These deadlines are set to allow lead authors time to consider all available literature in time for the first and second AR4 drafts. Electronic copies of papers need to be sent to the appropriate lead author contacts, with an electronic copy lodged with the WG1 Technical Support Unit (TSU) – see below. For the May deadline, the authors need some form of draft paper to assess. In almost all cases this will be in the form of a paper submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. An exception to the need for a peer-reviewed paper can be made for calculations of well-established diagnostics (e.g. where the diagnostic and the lines of inference from the results are described in a number of existing peer-reviewed papers). This would be at the discretion of the lead authors and would be subject to scrutiny by the WG1 Review Editors and Bureau. If you are planning work of this type I would advise establishing early direct contact with an appropriate lead author. List of contacts for AR4 modelling chapters Please email a pdf copy of your paper to the IPCC WG1 TSU (ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov) and to the relevant contact points below. Note that your study may be relevant to more than one chapter (e.g. a study that considers both the control simulations of ENSO and future changes in ENSO would be relevant to both Chapters 8 and 10). Roughly speaking, Ch. 8 deals with simulations of aspects of the climatology or processes in present-day climate, Ch. 9 addresses simulation of trends or responses to specific forcings in 20th century climate in addition to detection/attribution studies, Ch. 10 assesses any aspect of climate change projections from global models, and Ch. 11 deals with aspects of regional climate change projections from regional models or information downscaled from global models. These are not strict boundaries, but are used for general guidance to give you a rough idea of where to send copies of your papers. As long as you send copies to the chapter contacts you think are relevant for your paper, it is then the responsibility of the respective lead authors to sort out exactly where your results will be assessed. Chapter outlines can be found at: http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/index.html Chapter 8: Climate Models and their Evaluation Please send copies to the appropriate section contacts: 8.1 Introduction and Philosophy: Richard Wood richard.wood@metoffice.gov.uk 8.2 Advances in Modelling (model formulation, resolution etc): Akimasa Sumi sumi@ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp 8.3 Evaluation of contemporary climate as simulated by coupled global models: Karl Taylor taylor13@llnl.gov 8.4 Evaluation of large-scale climate variability: John Fyfe John.Fyfe@ec.gc.ca 8.5 Model simulations of extremes: Jagadish Shukla shukla@cola.iges.org 8.6 Climate Sensitivity and hydrological sensitivity: Sandrine Bony Sandrine.Bony@lmd.jussieu.fr 8.7 Mechanisms producing thresholds and abrupt climate change: Ron Stouffer Ronald.Stouffer@noaa.gov 8.8 Representing the global system with simpler models: Thierry Fichefet fichefet@astr.ucl.ac.be Chapter 9 : Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Please send all papers to CLA Gabi Hegerl hegerl@duke.edu Chapter 10: Global Climate Projections Please send all papers to CLA Thomas Stocker stocker@climate.unibe.ch Chapter 11: Regional Climate Projections Please send all papers to CLA Jens Christensen jhc@dmi.dk The draft papers will be made available through the WG1 web pages to all WG1 lead authors. Additionally, the TSU will set up a tracking sheet, and it will be your responsibility to update this form as your paper progresses through the review process. Further details regarding this procedure will be forthcoming. Thank you again for your contribution, and good luck with your writing! Jerry Meehl For the Ch. 8, 9, 10 and 11 Lead Authors, and for the WGCM Climate Simulation Panel Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\sending_in_papers1.doc"