cc: , , , "Philip Newton" date: Thu, 20 May 2004 15:02:24 +0100 from: "Eric W Wolff" subject: Re: RAPID statement -round 2 to: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Hi Christine, Generally this is a good initiative and the text is good although I do have a couple of suggestions. In para 1, the bit in brackets is a bit unwieldy, how about: "exaggerated events: for example, total shutdown takes place over a few days rather than the decades that seems scientifically feasible." (leave the bit about freezing out?) In paragraph 3 in contrast, I feel, bearing in mind also the comments we got from DEFRA at the meeting a few months back about the message we send out, that we might add a little. (Their concern was that we should not imply that we expect cooling to offset global warming but rather that they are both part of the same problem). How about (my changes in capitals): "THERE ARE SERIOUS SCIENTIFIC CONCERNS THAT GREENHOUSE WARMING MIGHT CAUSE A SLOWDOWN OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVERTURNING CIRCULATION, FURTHER PERTURBING THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. Present understanding would suggest that rapid climate change over the next FEW decadeS is a low probability event, but should it happen, its impact on Western European economy and society Could be serious." But I can live with the present text if you prefer to keep it. Eric ---------------------------- Eric Wolff British Antarctic Survey High Cross Madingley Road Cambridge CB3 0ET United Kingdom E-mail: ewwo@bas.ac.uk Phone: +44 1223 221491 Fax: +44 1223 221279 Alternate fax: +44 1223 362616 >>> Christine Gommenginger 20/05/04 11:28:49 >>> Dear RAPID SC member, Given the anticipated interest in rapid climate change issues following next Friday's global release of the Day after Tomorrow Hollywood blockbuster movie, Meric and I have (with advice from our local communication officials) prepared a statement to post on the RAPID web site (see below). Our aim is to keep it brief - in fact it may already be too long. Please can you let me know asap of any absolute show-stoppers. My aim is to post it on our web page some time tomorrow (i.e. before the week-end). Many thanks, Christine The Day After Tomorrow - the latest Hollywood blockbuster movie by Roland Emmerich, maker of "Independence Day" - depicts an extreme rapid climate change event following the sudden shutdown of the North Atlantic overturning circulation due to global warming. Could this really happen? While the film is a classic action movie featuring hugely exaggerated events (total shutdown takes place over a few days rather than decades, tidal waves in New York flood the city and then turn into a massive ice block within hours), it does present some genuine scientific information about ocean circulation, ice core sampling and past climate shifts. The film has been broadly welcomed by scientists as a way to raise awareness about the importance of climate change issues. The UK is taking the lead in rapid climate change research. A £20 Million Rapid Climate Change programme (known as RAPID for short) is being funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The aim of RAPID is to determine the probability of rapid climate change and its likely impact. For the first time, a monitoring system is being set up to monitor changes in the North Atlantic overturning circulation (which is associated with but not quite the same as the Gulf Stream). The UK research vessel RRS Discovery has recently deployed an array of moorings across the N. Atlantic Ocean. Present understanding would suggest that rapid climate change over the next decade is a low probability event, but should it happen, its impact on Western European economy and society would be serious. Hence, we need to improve our knowledge of the processes involved and narrow the uncertainties on the prediction of potential future rapid climate change. That is exactly what the RAPID programme aims to do. _________________________________________________________ Dr Christine Gommenginger Laboratory for Satellite Oceanography (LSO) James Rennell Division for Ocean Circulation and Climate Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC) Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom Tel (direct): +44 (0)2380 596411 Fax: +44 (0)2380 596400 http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/ Assistant Science Co-ordinator for NERC RAPID Climate Change Programme http://rapid.nerc.ac.uk/ _________________________________________________________