date: Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:43:16 +0100 from: "Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)" subject: UKCIP08 launch delay to: "Ag Stevens" , "Anna Steynor" , "Bryan Lawrence" , "Butt, Adrian (CEOSA)" , "Chris Kilsby" , "Colin Harpham" , "David Sexton" , "Geoff Jenkins" , "Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)" , "Jason Lowe" , "Kevin Marsh" , "Mark Elkington" , "Paul Bowyer" , "Phil James" , "Phil Jones" , "Richard Westaway" , "Roger Street" , "Sarah Callaghan" Dear all, MOHC have found a problem through their sensitivity testing with the calculation of the discrepancy term in that it is throwing out odd results for winter mean temperature in Scotland, proportion of dry days in Scotland and specific humidity. They have suggested to us that the best option for dealing with this is to try out another method of calculating the discrepancy which they believe will work better, and if it does, this will involve re-doing all of the PDFs given that the same discrepancy calculation is used across the board. Defra have agreed that this seems to be the most sensible approach, which will inevitably lead to a delay in the launch. Next steps therefore involve: - Me and MOHC coming up with a line to give out on the reason for the delay that we can all give out to people. Geoff is going to help me write this. This line will need to go the Ministers, then the steering group, then out more widely, so for now please don't pass on that the launch is delayed to anyone, before we have a standard line to give out. If you have to, just pretend it's still 20^th November for now! We should have a line by tomorrow and let Ministers know a day or so afterwards so should be able to let the SG know this week. - I need an updated project plan from all of you combined to start to think about a new launch date. I have suggested February to colleagues here to test the water and there haven't been huge cries of woe, but I need to know what you think is sensible first and we also want to wait to see the first results of MOHC's re-analysis before agreeing a new launch date. The sooner I can get a revised project plan the better. - We need to decide if we want to call the project UKCIP09. Thoughts? - Colleagues here are keen to now incorporate a peer review as we are not tied to the November launch deadline. Geoff and I have discussed ways of doing this before, which basically involve sending the methodology out to a few key experts and asking for comments within a 4 week period or so. - I need to check who is waiting for the data to inform research or policy so that we can deal with their needs. If you know of any projects that are waiting for the data please let me know. That's a bit of a brain dump, but please ring me to discuss if you have any further queries especially about what work you should now be doing given that the PDFs are likely to change. I'll forward another email shortly with MOHC's suggested timing for re-doing the PDFs to help you plan your own timings. Kind Regards, Kathryn Kathryn Humphrey Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Team, Defra Zone 3F Ergon House, Horseferry Road, London, SW1P 3JR tel 0207 238 3362 fax 0207 238 3341 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) This email and any attachments is intended for the named recipient only. If you have received it in error you have no authority to use, disclose, store or copy any of its contents and you should destroy it and inform the sender. Whilst this email and associated attachments will have been checked for known viruses whilst within Defra systems we can accept no responsibility once it has left our systems. Communications on Defra's computer systems may be monitored and/or recorded to secure the effective operation of the system and for other lawful purposes.