date: Fri, 28 Sep 2007 16:58:51 +0100
from: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk
subject: Re: Fwd: Science paper
to: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

Hi Phil

Thanks. The whole issue of what leads what in CO2 and temperature and
whether this debunks the idea that current increases in CO2 is causing
warming was part of an interesting day I spent at the High Court of
Justice yesterday.
The judge and barristers were interpreting WGI SPM Table SPM.2 would you
believe amongst other things. (There is other IPCC material that has
been entered as evidence including WGII material). I am an expert
witness in a case concerning An Inconvenient Truth and have provided
written evidence but was not called to give evidence in person. My
evidence says that Overall the Claimant's suggestion that the Film
seriously misrepresents the causes and likely effects of climate change
is not well founded. Although there are some areas where further context
and clarification is required these are, in my view provided by the
Guidance [provided by the government to schools]. [One of the areas
where further context is required is the CO2/temperature relationship on
glacial interglacial cycles] The claimant's expert
witness is Professor Robert Merlin Carter of Australia. I'm now back at
work and the case continues. See eg
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/7015723.stm if you're interested.

Peter

On Thu, 2007-09-27 at 11:26 +0100, Phil Jones wrote:
> 
> > Peter,
>        I was away yesterday - fortunately!  This came via the UEA
> press office
>  from a media outlet. It will be in tomorrow's Science express. So
> don't
>  pass on till then!
> 
>      I thought of you reading the author's name!  Another non
> relation!
> 
>   The summary in the email by this Stott is awful. Ice Ages need
>  Milankovitch - everyone knows that !  CO2 just helps out and
>  it is feedback, not the forcing it is now.
> 
>     This paper is likely to get quite a bit of media hype.
> 
>  Cheers
>  Phil
> 
> 
> 
> > 
> > ____________________________________________________________________
> > From: Simon Hadlington [mailto:simon@hadlington.plus.com] 
> > Sent: Wednesday, September 26, 2007 2:08 PM
> > To: Press Office
> > Subject: fao Annie
> > Importance: High
> > 
> > Annie
> >  
> >  
> > re Chemistry World.
> >  
> > here is the embargoed paper that is due to appear on the science
> > website on friday and below is the press blurb that came with it.
> > Chemistry World will be running a piece on the work and it would be
> > very nice to have a few sentences from an independent third party -
> > ie hopefully someone from your climate change research centre - to
> > say why the work is significant. I'm happy to speak with someone or
> > else equally happy to receive four or five sentences in an email.
> > Presumably the work could be grist to the mill of the global warming
> > sceptics - is there any reason why it shouldn't be?
> >  
> > Chemistry World wants to get something out to coincide with the
> > embargo being lifted, so really I'd need something by 10am at the
> > latest tomorrow morning. If you could let me know within the next
> > couple of hours if you've found anyone that would be great.
> >  
> > thanks
> >  
> > best wishes
> >  
> > Simon
> > 
> > Simon Hadlington
> > freelance science journalist
> > Derwent House
> > Main Street
> > Thorganby
> > York YO19 6DA
> >  
> >  
> >  
> > 
> > http://www.eurekalert.org/emb_releases/2007-09/uosc-cdd092507.php
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Carbon dioxide did not end the last Ice Age
> > 
> > Deep-sea temperatures rose 1,300 years before atmospheric CO2,
> > ruling out the greenhouse gas as driver of meltdown, says study in
> > Science.
> > 
> > Lowell Stott, professor of earth sciences, University of Southern
> > California
> > 
> > Click here for more information.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Carbon dioxide did not cause the end of the last ice age, a new
> > study in Science suggests, contrary to past inferences from ice core
> > records.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > “There has been this continual reference to the correspondence
> > between CO2 and climate change as reflected in ice core records as
> > justification for the role of CO2 in climate change,” said USC
> > geologist Lowell Stott, lead author of the study, slated for advance
> > online publication Sept. 27 in Science Express.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > “You can no longer argue that CO2 alone caused the end of the ice
> > ages.”
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Deep-sea temperatures warmed about 1,300 years before the tropical
> > surface ocean and well before the rise in atmospheric CO2, the study
> > found. The finding suggests the rise in greenhouse gas was likely a
> > result of warming and may have accelerated the meltdown – but was
> > not its main cause.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > The study does not question the fact that CO2 plays a key role in
> > climate.
> > 
> > Lowell Stott, professor of earth sciences at the University of
> > Southern California, examines a sediment core.
> > 
> > Click here for more information.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > “I don’t want anyone to leave thinking that this is evidence that
> > CO2 doesn’t affect climate,” Stott cautioned. “It does, but the
> > important point is that CO2 is not the beginning and end of climate
> > change.”
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > While an increase in atmospheric CO2 and the end of the ice ages
> > occurred at roughly the same time, scientists have debated whether
> > CO2 caused the warming or was released later by an already warming
> > sea.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > The best estimate from other studies of when CO2 began to rise is no
> > earlier than 18,000 years ago. Yet this study shows that the deep
> > sea, which reflects oceanic temperature trends, started warming
> > about 19,000 years ago.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > “What this means is that a lot of energy went into the ocean long
> > before the rise in atmospheric CO2,” Stott said.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > But where did this energy come from" Evidence pointed southward.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Water’s salinity and temperature are properties that can be used to
> > trace its origin – and the warming deep water appeared to come from
> > the Antarctic Ocean, the scientists wrote.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > This water then was transported northward over 1,000 years via well-
> > known deep-sea currents, a conclusion supported by carbon-dating
> > evidence.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > In addition, the researchers noted that deep-sea temperature
> > increases coincided with the retreat of Antarctic sea ice, both
> > occurring 19,000 years ago, before the northern hemisphere’s ice
> > retreat began.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Finally, Stott and colleagues found a correlation between melting
> > Antarctic sea ice and increased springtime solar radiation over
> > Antarctica, suggesting this might be the energy source.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > As the sun pumped in heat, the warming accelerated because of sea-
> > ice albedo feedbacks, in which retreating ice exposes ocean water
> > that reflects less light and absorbs more heat, much like a dark T-
> > shirt on a hot day.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > In addition, the authors’ model showed how changed ocean conditions
> > may have been responsible for the release of CO2 from the ocean into
> > the atmosphere, also accelerating the warming.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > The link between the sun and ice age cycles is not new. The theory
> > of Milankovitch cycles states that periodic changes in Earth’s orbit
> > cause increased summertime sun radiation in the northern hemisphere,
> > which controls ice size.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > However, this study suggests that the pace-keeper of ice sheet
> > growth and retreat lies in the southern hemisphere’s spring rather
> > than the northern hemisphere’s summer.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > The conclusions also underscore the importance of regional climate
> > dynamics, Stott said. “Here is an example of how a regional climate
> > response translated into a global climate change,” he explained.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Stott and colleagues arrived at their results by studying a unique
> > sediment core from the western Pacific composed of fossilized
> > surface-dwelling (planktonic) and bottom-dwelling (benthic)
> > organisms.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > These organisms – foraminifera – incorporate different isotopes of
> > oxygen from ocean water into their calcite shells, depending on the
> > temperature. By measuring the change in these isotopes in shells of
> > different ages, it is possible to reconstruct how the deep and
> > surface ocean temperatures changed through time.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > If CO2 caused the warming, one would expect surface temperatures to
> > increase before deep-sea temperatures, since the heat slowly would
> > spread from top to bottom. Instead, carbon-dating showed that the
> > water used by the bottom-dwelling organisms began warming about
> > 1,300 years before the water used by surface-dwelling ones,
> > suggesting that the warming spread bottom-up instead.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > “The climate dynamic is much more complex than simply saying that
> > CO2 rises and the temperature warms,” Stott said. The complexities
> > “have to be understood in order to appreciate how the climate system
> > has changed in the past and how it will change in the future.”
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > ###
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Stott’s collaborators were Axel Timmermann of the University of
> > Hawaii and Robert Thunell of the University of South Carolina. Stott
> > was supported by the National Science Foundation and Timmerman by
> > the International Pacific Research Center.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Stott is an expert in paleoclimatology and was a reviewer for the
> > Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He also recently co-
> > authored a paper in Geophysical Research Letters tracing a 900-year
> > history of monsoon variability in India.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > The study, which analyzed isotopes in cave stalagmites, found
> > correlations between recorded famines and monsoon failures, and
> > found that some past monsoon failures appear to have lasted much
> > longer than those that occurred during recorded history. The ongoing
> > research is aimed at shedding light on the monsoon’s poorly
> > understood but vital role in Earth’s climate.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> >  
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Science’s press release
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Warming >From High to Low:
> > 
> > Analysis of a new sea-sediment core in the Pacific suggests that the
> > warming that followed the last glacial period began in the high
> > latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere before sweeping into the
> > tropics. The findings could help sort out the sequence of climate
> > changes underlying the dramatic switch that turned an ice age into
> > today's interglacial climate, say Lowell Stott and colleagues.
> > Carbon-14 dating of organic material in the core suggests that deep
> > tropical waters in the western Pacific warmed up by about 2 degrees
> > Celsius between 19,000 and 17,000 years ago, 1,500 years earlier
> > than comparable warming in the tropical surface waters and 1,000
> > years before atmospheric carbon dioxide began to rise. The source of
> > the tropical deep heat may have been an even earlier heat wave in
> > surface waters closer to the South Pole, warmed by an increase in
> > solar radiation at the hemisphere's higher latitudes.
> > 
> >                         
> > 
> >  
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > ARTICLE #23: "Southern Hemisphere and Deep Sea Warming Led Deglacial
> > Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming," by L. Stott at
> > University of Southern California in Los Angeles, CA; A. Timmermann
> > at University of Hawaii in Honolulu, HI; R. Thunell at University of
> > South Carolina in Columbia, SC.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > CONTACT: Lowell Stott at +1-213-740-5120 (phone), or stott@usc.edu
> > (email)
> > 
> >  
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Ananyo Bhattacharya PhD
> > 
> > Acting Deputy Editor,Chemistry World
> > 
> > Tel: +44 (0)1223 432 184
> > 
> > Mob: +44 (0)7766 257 642
> > 
> > Fax: +44 (0)1223 426 017
> > 
> > Email: bhattacharyaa@rsc.org
> > 
> >                                            
> > 
> > Royal Society of Chemistry
> > 
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> > 
> > Milton Road, Cambridge, UK
> > 
> > CB4 0WF
> > 
> >  
> > 
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> 
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 
> School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 
> University of East Anglia                      
> Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk 
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                               
>