cc: "Parker, David" date: Wed, 4 Apr 2007 10:02:20 +0100 from: "Folland, Chris" subject: FW: Awful Ch 4 programme to: Phil Bucket corrections. I replied to John and Geoff last night. The attached paper is the state of the art on this topic from our perspective. Anything more we need to do to face up to potential future sceptics on this? SST/NMAT has had little serious attack from sceptics so far. We are working on the modern era now and recognise some problems there with SST. The modern NMAT problems are probably more or less solved. Cheers Chris Prof. Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) Fellow of the Met Office Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia -----Original Message----- From: Mitchell, John FB (Chief Scientist) Sent: 03 April 2007 14:15 To: Folland, Chris; Parker, David Subject: FW: Awful Ch 4 programme Hi Chris, Dave Any thoughts on this? John Professor John Mitchell OBE FRS Chief Scientist, Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB United Kingdom Tel. +44(0)1392884604 Fax:+44 (0) 870 9005050 E-mail: john.f.mitchell@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk -----Original Message----- From: Jenkins, Geoff Sent: 03 April 2007 11:42 To: Mitchell, John FB (Chief Scientist) Cc: Pope, Vicky Subject: RE: Awful Ch 4 programme Phils last point is interesting. Is he saying that if the skeptics realised how fragile the bucket/intake corrections were they could go to town on them? As I understand it, they all stem from Chris and David. Do we need more work to get them on a firmer footing? Geoff -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 26 March 2007 10:43 To: Mitchell, John FB (Chief Scientist) Cc: Jenkins, Geoff Subject: Awful Ch 4 programme > John, A couple of things about the web page on Climate Myths. 1. The recent eruptions were in 1982 (El Chichon) and 1991 (Pinatubo). Effects were mostly in the years you've given (so cooling then), but they occurred the year before. 2. On Myth 5, you could add that models have run the last millennium as well as the last hundred years. Related to this, is the solar activity in Myth 4 the new Judith Lean series? I could add many more myths, relating to frost fairs, the MWP, urbanization etc , if you should ever choose to add to this page. Philip Stott in that same program alluded to Frost Fairs and the MWP. There is no need for the UK to consider frost fairs, when we have the Manley CET record, Luterbacher's Swiss reconstructions and the Dutch seasonal reconstructions back to 1250. By the way, the skeptics may one day realise that the only bias in the surface temperature data that really matters is the bucket/intake one. The page is linked off the CRU site. Cheers Phil Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\FINAL PAPER1.pdf"