cc: Keith Briffa date: Fri, 3 Feb 2006 18:54:37 +0100 from: Eystein Jansen subject: Few remaining comments to: Fortunat Joos Dear Fortunat, could you quickly address the comments i Keith´s section? Eystein >Eystein >can you also check that Fortunat is addressing >the few comments (ie revising the text) that >relate to his bit of my section and Henry >Pollack is helping us to asses the comments and >revise the text to do with the Ground Surface >Temperature section. I presume Ricardo and Peck >are dealing with all the regional stuff. Thanks > >At 17:32 03/02/2006, you wrote: >>Hi, >>I can contact Oerlemans, have met him a few times. >>Cheers, >>Eystein >> >>>thanks for this - the new runs I think best in a separate panel . >>>Keith >>> >>>At 16:44 03/02/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >>>>Hi Keith and Tim (and Eystein): Your new >>>>figure is quite compelling, and a nice >>>>complement to the other two panels. I agree >>>>it would be good to get the Northern Hem >>>>Oerleman's plot - Eystein do you know him >>>>well enough to ask? (I never even met him, >>>>but could ask if you don't know him). >>>> >>>>What you have created will take some good >>>>work on the caption to explain, but it has my >>>>vote. >>>> >>>>What is your plan for dealing with the new >>>>German/Swiss model results? A new figure? Are >>>>you sure these runs can't be worked in, >>>>perhaps as a new panel? At least we have >>>>Susan's support for the new runs, so we do >>>>what we have to do. >>>> >>>>As for work and time, we are running out. >>>>Just do the best you can, and hopefully the >>>>new section will emerge sometime next week. >>>> >>>>Highest priority (please do first) - we need >>>>3 TS-contender figures (and captions) by >>>>early next week: >>>> >>>>1) the new fig showing all the sites used in the recons - with caption >>>>2) the fig you've attached to this email - >>>>with caption (were we going to try to put all >>>>the model runs/refs/color key into a table, >>>>so the caption could be shorter than in the >>>>FOD? Think this would be better, so caption >>>>is shorter) >>>>3) the new fig comparing the obs to the model >>>>runs (update of the fig we showed for first >>>>time in ChCh - using a version of the lower >>>>panel you attached to this email - with >>>>caption >>>> >>>>There is little doubt you guys have the >>>>hardest job of all LAs in our chapter, and >>>>possibly the entire WG1 report. Your work >>>>will have huge impact, and the extra effort >>>>is really appreciated well beyond me and >>>>Eystein. I wish we could offer up a time >>>>machine to make it easier, but... just keep >>>>plugging. >>>> >>>>thanks! Peck >>>> >>>>>Peck and Eystein >>>>>we are having trouble to express the real >>>>>message of the reconstructions - being >>>>>scientifically sound in representing >>>>>uncertainty , while still getting the crux >>>>>of the information across clearly. It is not >>>>>right to ignore uncertainty, but expressing >>>>>this merely in an arbitrary way (and as a >>>>>total range as before) allows the >>>>>uncertainty to swamp the magnitude of the >>>>>changes through time . We have settled on >>>>>this version (attached) of the Figure which >>>>>we hoe you will agree gets the message over >>>>>but with the rigor required for such an >>>>>important document. >>>>> >>>>>We have added a box to show the "probability >>>>>surface" for the most likely estimate of >>>>>past temperatures based on all published >>>>>data. By overlapping all reconstructions and >>>>>giving a score of 2 to all areas within the >>>>>1 standard error range of the estimates for >>>>>each reconstruction , and a score of 1 for >>>>>the area between 1 and 2 standard errors, >>>>>you build up a composite picture of the most >>>>>likely or "concensus" path that >>>>>temperatures took over the last 1200 years >>>>>(note - now with a linear time axis). This >>>>>still shows the outlier ranges , preserving >>>>>all the information, but you see the central >>>>>most likely area well , and the comparison >>>>>of past and recent temperature levels is not >>>>>as influenced by the outlier estimates. What >>>>>do you think? We have experimented with >>>>>different versions of the shading and this >>>>>one shows up quite well - but we may have >>>>>to use some all grey version as the >>>>>background to the overlay of the model >>>>>results. >>>>>We have also experimented with changing the >>>>>normalisation base for the >>>>>model/reconstruction Figure , but using the >>>>>same short modern period as for the first >>>>>Figure is not satisfactory - more on this >>>>>later. We have added in Oerlemans curve as >>>>>many insisted - but we only have the GLOBAL >>>>>curve - can you get the separate North and >>>>>Southern Hemisphere curves (with >>>>>uncertainty) . I do not see that the new >>>>>model runs from Germany/Switzerland will fit >>>>>easily in the existing Figure and need to be >>>>>separate! I am really struggling with the >>>>>text also - really need more time!!!! More >>>>>later >>>>>Keith >>>>> >>>>>>X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 7.0.0.16 >>>>>>Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 10:42:15 +0000 >>>>>>To: Keith Briffa >>>>>>From: Tim Osborn >>>>>>Subject: new fig >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>Dr Timothy J Osborn >>>>>>Climatic Research Unit >>>>>>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >>>>>>Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK >>>>>> >>>>>>e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >>>>>>phone: +44 1603 592089 >>>>>>fax: +44 1603 507784 >>>>>>web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >>>>>>sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm >>>>> >>>>>-- >>>>>Professor Keith Briffa, >>>>>Climatic Research Unit >>>>>University of East Anglia >>>>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>>>> >>>>>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>>>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>>>> >>>>>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>>>> >>>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh >>>>>HD:ipcc_nhrecon_new1.pdf (PDF /«IC») >>>>>(0010B41B) >>>> >>>> >>>>-- >>>>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>>> >>>>Mail and Fedex Address: >>>> >>>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>>>University of Arizona >>>>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>>>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>>>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>>>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >>> >>>-- >>>Professor Keith Briffa, >>>Climatic Research Unit >>>University of East Anglia >>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>> >>>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>> >>>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >> >> >>-- >>______________________________________________________________ >>Eystein Jansen >>Professor/Director >>Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and >>Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen >>Allégaten 55 >>N-5007 Bergen >>NORWAY >>e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no >>Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 >>Fax: +47-55-584330 > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330