date: Fri, 12 Oct 2007 17:48:35 -0400 from: "Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]" subject: RE: Past Millennia Climate Variability - Review Paper - reminder to: "Phil Jones" Hi Phil This is a familiar refrain, but I haven't produced that 1 page yet. The reason is that we received the reviews on Terry's paper this week. It has been accepted with minor revision. The main comment was that we should have a look at the effect of constructing pseudo proxies with red noise, so Terry is quickly looking at that. Indications are that this does not affect conclusions about the relative merits of different methods. In thinking about this, I also realized that we had not properly included the estimated responses to forcing in the kalman filter method (this was subtle, and wasn't picked up by the reviewers either). Doing it right turns out to be difficult. Doing it very close to right is less difficult, and so Terry is looking at that also - and again indications are that it has little effect on our results. So while the revisions probably won't change our conclusions materially - I'm holding off just a bit longer. I haven't heard anything back from Eugene yet - will contact him when the 1-pager is ready. I don't think there is a huge gap between our perspectives - it is not inconsistent that a given method produces a "good" reconstruction given a particular collection of proxies, but that it performs less well than some other methods under general conditions. Cheers, Francis PS - I guess we are writing to each other as Nobel Laureates now - congratulations! Francis Zwiers Director, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada 4905 Dufferin St., Toronto, Ont. M3H 5T4 Phone: 416 739 4767, Fax 416 739 5700 -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: October 9, 2007 7:33 AM To: Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]; Wahl, Eugene R Subject: Re: Past Millennia Climate Variability - Review Paper - reminder Francis, Gene, Gene, I discussed the paper with Francis last week when we were both together. Francis has a paper based on the work he discussed in Wengen. It comes to different conclusions from yours and Caspar's. It is likely that one of you (probably Caspar - as they have been slow) is one of the reviewer's. Anyway can you discuss the contribution Francis will make to the paper from the Wengen meeting amongst yourselves. Francis' contribution was to have been in section 5, while what you've sent Gene is in section 3. I'm sure Francis would be happy to send you the paper, Gene, if you don't yet have it. Taking on putting this paper together has been a real nightmare. I still can't seem to get any response from Keith, Tim and Caspar - and I know two of them are in rooms less than 5m from me! Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ----