cc: "Mike Hulme" , , "tomas markvart" , , "Brian Launder" , , "Frans Berkhout" , , "Martin Parry" , "Jean Palutikof" , date: Mon, 19 Nov 2001 12:15:58 -0000 from: "GEOFF LEVERMORE" subject: Re: John Page suggests advantages of interlinking European Solar to: , "John Page" Dear John, Thanks for your supportive email and attachments. Although we have discussed some of the points you raise I had better state my answers here for the wider audience you have addressed. Re Tyndall IT 1.8, the project is looking at the extremes of the Hadley model scenarios with our colleagues at UEA primarily. The first objective is to examine extremes of dry bulb temperature, (UEA objective), (objective in full: Analyse long term weather series for extreme temperature value distributions, and assess how well Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models model these extremes.) The second is to look at the extremes of solar, wet bulb and wind (UMIST), (in full: Extend Objective (1) to extreme distributions of solar, vapour pressure and wind, (parameters important for building and plant design), and to produce scenarios of expected future weather changes and UK Test Reference Years and Design Weather Sequences for future years 2025 and 2050, for use in building and plant design.) David Chow is working on this with myself and Patrick Laycock primarily. This is examining GEV, Pareto etc, extreme and near- extreme distributions. The third objective, some way off in our schedule, relates to obtaining a TRY for 2025 and 2050. (Objective in full: Using above UK Test Reference Years and Design Weather Sequences to analyse, by computer simulation, comfort, energy, (especially electrical), and carbon emission implications for typical current and sustainable building designs, in collaboration with RP2 and RP3 projects.) Here we’ll need solar algorithms for interpolating hourly data from the daily data. You are the UMIST team expert on solar algorithms and this is where your input will be needed most so your comments on the UMIST team seem a little strange. The project is just adequately, but not highly, funded. So there is little spare time for extra work on the EU Atlas data. However, some of the algorithms may be useful, although we are also looking at two other weather generators. I would like to see the Atlas you have spoken so much about, but David does not have too much time at present to devote to past EU, non-Hadley data. I am also aware of the additional work and lateness of the solar data and text that caused problems for the CIBSE Guide. The IT 1.8 project will finish on time and to budget but must concentrate on the objectives and deliverables. David and I are happy to travel to Sheffield to have a look at the Atlas data, algorithms and to discuss the work required bearing in mind the above. The Hadley data we have is provided by Phil Jones at UEA and he is pursuing further details of the actual algorithms, cloud as well solar. These will give us some insight to our statistical results. Confirmation of the basic derivation of the data is of vital importance. Some of this information is now available but all the finer details you request may not be available quickly. Although it would be good to have all the details you want some is more important than others and more easily obtained. So it is unlikely for you to have all the details on your desk soon; your condition for starting work with us. However, your comments on the two Edwards solar algorithm papers I gave you some weeks ago would be useful and add to the input from Tom Choularton. The later Hadley solar model seems initially good but whether good or bad we have to deal with its output upon which many scenarios are based and which this project is about. As we discussed on Friday, it would also be very helpful to get the latest RCM model data which Mike Hulme and his researchers have. (Can we have access to the data, Mike?) Re the EU data being linked with the Hadley data, I need to see the EU data before I can comment. Re your thoughts for generalised climate change data, (possible Tyndall project), I generally agree, but whether Tyndall will be interested in non UK data and scenarios I am uncertain about. (Can you comment, please, Mike.) To become a viable second round proposal your idea needs more work on the objectives and deliverables. I am happy to discuss these with you. Re the CIBSE Guide, I understand that the Met O will be issuing the hourly design data that we developed in December. I’ve spoken to Prof Muneer about the need for one or two papers on the solar QA methods, (Andy Wright and I are writing one on the synoptic data). Could you contact him and perhaps suggest separate papers on your individual work. Tariq has submitted an abstract to the April Climate Change Conference but it about some overseas measurements he has made. Good travelling in Europe and have a good meeting. Regards Geoff From: "John Page" To: Copies to: "Mike Hulme" , , "tomas markvart" , , "Brian Launder" , , "Frans Berkhout" , , "Martin Parry" , "Jean Palutikof" , Subject: John Page suggests advantages of interlinking European Solar Radiation Atlas to Hadley Centre scenarios Date sent: Mon, 12 Nov 2001 17:48:27 -0000 > All > This attachment suggests a good research yield through interacting two > well funded programmes John Page > Dr Geoff Levermore Department of Civil & Construction Engineering UMIST PO Box 88 Manchester M60 1QD Tel 0161 200 4257 Fax 0161 200 4252 Email geoff.levermore@umist.ac.uk Also can use Mrs Helen McCaffery Tel 0161 200 8965 Fax 0161 200 4252 Email helen.mccaffery@umist.ac.uk ------------------------------------------------