date: Thu, 19 Feb 2004 14:17:46 +0000 from: Tim Mitchell subject: Govt position to: Nick Brooks , Mike Hulme Nick / Mike, The attached document may be already within your thoughts. But if it is not, you might like to consider it. There are some potentially useful position statements to work with when talking to the RCs, amongst others. Also, we could perhaps take these statements as being a starting point from which to work in the policy arena, as much as the IPCC TAR provides a starting point to work from in the scientific arena. For example, RESEARCH OBJECTIVES While the EU aim is supported, the Government will encourage further research on baseline scenarios, on mitigation and stabilisation scenarios and on adaptation scenarios. IPCC has already held an expert meeting looking into further elaborating the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) baseline scenarios. We would welcome additional mitigation analysis for various stabilisation levels to enhance the possibilities of comparing costs and benefits of climate response strategies. 2010 GOAL the domestic goal of a 20% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010 2050 GOAL We agree that the UK should put itself on a path towards reductions in carbon dioxide emissions of some 60% from current levels by about 2050 ... which equates to emissions of around 65mtC in 2050. 550 ppm GOAL A reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of 60% by 2050 is consistent with the level of reduction likely to be needed by developed countries, in order to move towards stabilisation of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere at no more than 550ppmv (parts per million by volume), taking account of a realistic assessment of emissions growth in developing countries. NO UPPER LIMIT CONSENSUS The choice of an upper limit for carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere is one for which there is no international consensus or clear scientific guideline, though the EU Member States have agreed that we should be aiming for a maximum global temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels and a stabilisation of carbon dioxide concentrations below 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to prevent the most damaging effects of climate change. Even at this level there will be negative impacts. DANGEROUS DEFINITION VARIES The recent assessment of the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that the basis for determining what constitutes dangerous anthropogenic interference will vary among regions - depending both on the local nature and consequences of climate change impacts, and also on the adaptive capacity available to cope with climate change - and depends upon mitigation capacity, since the magnitude and the rate of change are both important. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CO2 and TEMPERATURE The IPCC Synthesis report notes the range of temperatures that could result for different stabilisation levels. At 550ppmv the range is approximately 2.0 -5.2C above 1990 levels depending on the sensitivity of the climate system to the additional radiative forcing due to CO2. The IPCC has also assessed the state of knowledge on the impacts of climate change associated with different temperature levels. The scientific uncertainties are such that, for low sensitivity, relatively modest impacts may be found at 550ppmv. At high sensitivity, on the other hand, there are considerable risks that significant damage could be experienced. _____________________________________ Dr. Tim Mitchell Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research email: t.mitchell@uea.ac.uk web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timm/ phone: +44 (0)1603 59 1378 fax: +44 (0)1603 59 3901 post: Tyndall, ENV, UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK _____________________________________ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\rcep22_response.pdf"